The Rapid Rise of Ray Rice
Ray Rice's Average Draft Position is rising rapidly, as it should be. The second-year running back is emerging as the centerpiece of Baltimore's offense. Rice's current ADP rests at 66.7, or the late seventh round in 10-team drafts (mid-sixth in 12-team formats). He's still a value there. Let's examine why:
1. Rice is the Ravens' clear-cut starter. Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain split the starts last season, but Rice quietly overtook them at May minicamps and hasn't looked back. He's started both of Baltimore's first two preseason games. In the second, Rice was the only back to play with the first-team offense. McClain entered with the Troy Smith-led second unit. McGahee didn't play until the second half. With a starting job locked up and perhaps the best hands on the team after Derrick Mason (Rice finished third on the Ravens in receptions per game last year), he has the makings of an every-down back.
2. The Ravens will run like crazy. It seems natural for coordinator Cam Cameron to give Joe Flacco "more freedom" in his second year. But Cameron's track record says it won't happen. Cam's recent offenses have ranked 1st (2008), 2nd ('06), 12th ('05), and 4th ('04) in the league in rush attempts. His 2007 Dolphins were 27th, but only because they were horrible and finished 1-15. Anyways, Ronnie Brown led the NFL in yards from scrimmage before his Week 7 ACL tear that year. The Ravens' best talent also isn't at receiver or tight end. Last season's most run-heavy NFL team won't change concepts. That means more opportunities for their new starter.
3. Rice appears to be Baltimore's new goal-line back. McClain tallied 10 scores as the Ravens' red-zone specialist last season. But he's packed on weight to do more lead blocking with Lorenzo Neal gone, and is up to 260. Rice also got heavier, but throughout his chest and thighs. He's at 207, or roughly ideal mass on a 5'8" body. Rice did not come off the field during Baltimore's goal-line package against the Jets on Monday night. After two failed Flacco passes, Rice scored from three yards out on third down. The TD came on an unorthodox Statue of Liberty play, but the mere fact that Rice stayed in is a terrific sign for his in-season scoring potential. Meanwhile, McClain has three touches on the preseason to Rice's 17.
4. Rice's schedule is extremely favorable, as I see it. Playing in-division Pittsburgh twice hurts, but two bouts with Cleveland (27th in my 2009 run defense ranks helps make up for it. Baltimore also faces five of my worst six rush Ds, and 10 of the Ravens' 16 games are played against teams 16th or below. Using last year's yards-per-carry allowed rankings, the Ravens play nine teams that were 15th or worse, including seven games versus teams in the bottom nine [CLE (2x), GB, OAK, DEN, KC, DET]. It doesn't get much easier.
5. Rice is the Ravens' future, and they know it. The 2008 55th overall pick is signed cheaply through 2011, while McGahee's $6.35 million salary cap charge for 2010 is sure to be slashed from the books next March. McClain is an impending restricted free agent. The Ravens showed some concern about this backfield's future by drafting Virginia speedster Cedric Peerman in April. But it's time to get Rice the rock, and see if he's the franchise back of the future. The bet here, obviously, is that he is.
The 2009 Rotoworld Draft Guide has been updated to reflect it, not only in our dynasty rankings, but in our re-draft projections as well. Stop on by, and feel confident making Rice your RB2 on draft day.
Comments
Thank you Evan!
This is the kind of precise, up-to-date, timely information that is critical to use on Draft Day. Understanding the real story behind the scenes is invaluable - keep up the good work!
Posted by: Jake D | August 27, 2009 08:12 AM
I have the 2nd pick in a 12 team 3 player keeper league. Right now keepers are Brees, Ronnie Brown, Ryan Grant. I was going to go WR as the best available in the draft is Boldin, but would it be to much of a reach to try for Rice? I also have pick 9 and 11.
Posted by: Dan Z | August 27, 2009 08:43 AM
This is officially out of control. People are now starting to reach for Rice in the 4th-5th round.
McGahee is healthy, committed, and has looked great in camp. McClain is a goal-line beast who will likely still lead all three backs in TD's.
So let's run consider this before we go any further. Rice will be the starter but will split carries with McGahee and lose goal-line touches to McClain. This is the makings of a bye-week starter, not the next breakout back.
Adding more fuel to this runaway hype train is unconscionable. Ray Rice went from a nice flex spot play with upside you could get late, to an early round bust candidate who will break your heart and destroy your draft.
Well done guys.
Posted by: Golden Ratio | August 27, 2009 08:55 AM
The over/under valued argument only holds if R. Rice does not blow up into an RB1.
If you're looking for upside, regardless of rd 4-7 range, you should look for an RB who will play well enough in 09 to rank as an RB1 in 2010. He arguably has the explosive ingredients.
All these factors make a strong case. Especially the offensive coach Cameron, OL and run first philosophy. Not to mention Rice's track record in college, feature back abilities and some of the same lame duck teams that DWill/Turner torched in 08.
Posted by: Paul | August 27, 2009 09:26 AM
Love the post. I consider my draft a success because I got Rice in the 2nd round. It's a 12 team keepers league with 5 keepers, so basically I got him in the 7th round.
One issue though, is Ray Rice is #27, not #39 like in the picture. Are you sure you're not trying to tell people to draft backup rookie fullback Jason Cook?
Posted by: Dan K | August 27, 2009 09:26 AM
Just a clarification: That is Rice in the pic. He wore #39 when he first joined the Ravens as a rookie. You're right though, he is now #27, which is also the number he wore at Rutgers.
Posted by: A Beck | August 27, 2009 09:35 AM
Did you WATCH Rice play last year? While he was a rookie, he looked like a college player up against pros- he can catch out of the backfield well, so he is certainly an option for (stupid) PPR leagues, but my gut and valuations tell me he will be exposed once again in regular games and we will see steady doses of McGahee and McClain.
Posted by: Randy G | August 27, 2009 09:40 AM