Perception of Barber changes; value doesn't
Sometimes when I'm setting my rankings in May, I don't realize a certain player is a "Rotoworld guy" that year. I just think I'm slotting him fairly; not too high, not too low.
Marion Barber is starting to look like one of those players this year.
In standard leagues, Barber really doesn't look like much of a different value to me than he did in 2007 or 2008. His supporting cast at running back is certainly better, but Barber is still a player with all the best fantasy skills (receiving and scoring) on a productive offense.
He put-up top 15 fantasy numbers in 2006 on 158 touches, and top-7 numbers in 2007 on 248 touches. Even with Felix Jones around, I think he can hit 250 touches this year. I wrote in our magazine: "Barber is the rare fantasy back that is better off with fewer touches per game." (I wrote it because I think it's true. We'll see.)
Barber is more likely to stay healthy all season with help, and he's an every week starter while healthy.
That's why I'm surprised he's slipping to 3.01, according to FF Calculator's ADP.
In non-PPR leagues, people are going a little too far taking wideouts over Barber. His value hasn't really changed that much from the last two years, only the perception of his value has.
Barber has never really been a Rotoworld guy before, but this year the value looks right.
Comments
What a complete waste of space, the article by Adam Levitan. So RB's on bad teams don;t finish in the top 10? who was drafting Kevin Smith as an RB1? No, he is a SOLID RB2. So how does the prediction that it will be tough for him to finish in the top 10 affect that. Bad article. On the other hand Greg, Evan and Wess continue to shine.
Posted by: scott l. | August 11, 2009 10:27 PM
agreed.
Posted by: scott c | August 11, 2009 10:52 PM
Dead on, although Barber hasn't gotten past mid 2nd round in mocks I've been a part of. Best case scenario is he puts up RB1 numbers and Jones will be a boom or bust flex play if he stays healthy. If you feel the need to cuff Barber, Choice looks to be the guy.
Posted by: John R. | August 12, 2009 09:20 AM
Less touches equals a higher ypc. Less work load equals better quality on each carry. I like the thought process. Usually we like it when a RB is getting 300 carries. If getting 200 carries translates into double digit TD's I'm drinking the kool aid.
Posted by: Shannn | August 12, 2009 10:24 AM
You guys are being way too hard on Adam. He was just saying that when it comes time to draft your RB2, players on losing teams have less chance of finishing as an RB1 than those from winning teams, so pick an equivalent level RB from a winning team instead of Kevin Smith.
Posted by: cjm | August 12, 2009 12:38 PM
I don't think I could bring myself to pick Barber in the third round of a draft.
I've continuously read Choice is going to be on the field for 3-4 series per game and that Felix Jones is going to get 10-12 carries per game.
I agree with the reasoning that less carries could increase his efficacy when he does get the ball, and I'd add it's also likely to keep him healthier.
On the other hand, there's only so many carries to go around, and while the Cowboys have a lot of incentive to run the ball, Garrett has shown he likes to throw.
Couple that with 2 games against the Eagles' run D, 2 games against the Giants', and two games against the Skins' led by Haynesworth and London Fletcher...
He'll have value, but I don't like where his ceiling is at with so much competition for carries and some questions in the passing game.
Posted by: Fredex | August 12, 2009 03:38 PM
Oh you said he'd be more likely to stay healthy all season long, I must have glossed over that line.
Posted by: Fredex | August 12, 2009 03:41 PM