"Experts" Mock: Surprises, Surprises
I'll keep this short because I'm writing my Position Battles column for Friday and have to get it done before tonight's preseason games, but I wanted to show you guys the results of this PPR/IDP Draft, which will be played out. IDPs always go late (well, if the owners are smart, they go late) in this format, so we can ignore them for now. We start 1QB (4 pts for passing TDs), 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, K, DEF, then seven IDPs. See if you can tell what's surprising (actually there have been several surprises so far):
1.01 Footballguys.com - Jones-Drew, Maurice
1.02 Sports Grumblings - Slaton, Steve
1.03 Fantasy Insights - Fitzgerald, Larry
1.04 KFFL - Peterson, Adrian
1.05 FF Mastermind - Forte, Matt
1.06 Rotoworld - Jackson, Steven (calm yourself, Scott C)
1.07 USA TODAY - Johnson, Andre
1.08 RotoWire - Johnson, Calvin
1.09 FantasyFootball.com - Tomlinson, LaDainian
1.10 Fantasy Guru - Johnson, Chris
1.11 FF Today - Moss, Randy
1.12 The Huddle - Wayne, Reggie
2.01 The Huddle - Smith, Steve
2.02 FF Today - Turner, Michael
2.03 Fantasy Guru - Westbrook, Brian
2.04 FantasyFootball.com - Portis, Clinton
2.05 RotoWire - Gore, Frank
2.06 USA TODAY - Jennings, Greg
2.07 Rotoworld - Barber, Marion
2.08 FF Mastermind - Boldin, Anquan
2.09 KFFL - Williams, DeAngelo
2.10 Fantasy Insights - White, Roddy
2.11 Sports Grumblings - Brown, Ronnie
2.12 Footballguys.com - Gonzalez, Tony (Editor's Note: !!!)
Updates are in bold
3.01 Footballguys.com - Rodgers, Aaron
3.02 Sports Grumblings - Welker, Wes
3.03 Fantasy Insights - Brees, Drew
3.04 KFFL - Colston, Marques
3.05 FF Mastermind - Jacobs, Brandon
3.06 Rotoworld - Bowe, Dwayne
3.07 USA TODAY - Grant, Ryan
3.08 RotoWire - Thomas, Pierre
3.09 FantasyFootball.com - Brady, Tom
3.10 Fantasy Guru - Owens, Terrell
3.11 FF Today - Manning, Peyton
3.12 The Huddle - Houshmandzadeh, T.J.
4.1 The Huddle - Bush, Reggie
4.2 FF Today - Ochocinco, Chad
4.3 Fantasy Guru - Jackson, Vincent
4.4 FantasyFootball.com - Willis, Patrick (first IDP gone, way early for my tastes)
4.5 RotoWire - Marshall, Brandon
4.6 USA TODAY - Gates, Antonio
4.7 Rotoworld - Smith, Kevin
4.8 FF Mastermind - Witten, Jason
4.9 KFFL - Jackson, DeSean
4.10 Fantasy Insights - Ward, Derrick
4.11 Sports Grumblings - Williams, Roy E.
4.12 Footballguys.com - Royal, Eddie
5.1 Footballguys.com - Edwards, Braylon
5.2 Sports Grumblings - Moore, Lance
5.3 Fantasy Insights - Clark, Dallas
**The Smith pick gave me three running backs in a league where you only start two on a weekly basis. I just couldn't pass up that kind of value, particularly with guys already starting to pick defensive players. My IDPs won't be selected for several more rounds, so hopefully I'll be able to collect premier PPR talent to round out my lineup with my next five picks. I need some wideouts and have a couple of names in mind (initials E.R., A.G.) for round five.
Comments
wow. slaton 2nd??? fitz 3rd? 6 WRs in the top 13? an aged TE before a QB?!
funny how many went either RB-RB or WR-WR when you'd think one of each would probably be preferable, all else equal.
Posted by: veggieb | August 13, 2009 06:25 PM
Wow, tons of surprises. Not sure if Peterson dropping to 4 or Turner to 2.02 is the bigger upset.
Posted by: KJ | August 13, 2009 06:46 PM
That Tony Gonzalez pick is bs, its obviously just to stand out, probably to try and create traffic for their website. Or they're just morons. Or both.
Posted by: JohnM | August 13, 2009 06:49 PM
This really brings new meaning to "Mock" draft, huh?
Posted by: KJ | August 13, 2009 06:52 PM
PPR League. Not a ton of surprises for that.
Posted by: Pickles | August 13, 2009 06:58 PM
One of the interesting things about expert predictions in any field is that there is less variation between the predictions than between the predictions and what actually occurs.
This is a much better mock than most in that it shows a little less of the herd mentality. Wesseling should also really like this draft because it demonstrates a willingness to actually project on talent and situation instead of simply going with last year's stats.
I'm not surprised that most teams either went RB-RB or WR-WR. If you believe in a WR valuable enough to take in the first round, then you probably believe in the WR value available in the 2nd round. The WR run in the first round makes them more likely to be reached for in the 2nd.
Slaton at #2 isn't surprising. The top 4 PPR RBs are likely to be MJD, Slaton, C. Johnson, and Forte in some order (of course, injuries will derail that prediction). Rotoworld selecting SJax over Every Coaches Dream is tragic since Rotoworld loves them both and one has everything going for him while the other has everything (except talent!) going against him.
Posted by: The Dude Abides | August 13, 2009 08:20 PM
what the bloodclot?! ... alright, note to self: NEVER visit Footballguys.com.
this is a joke right? what in the world are some of these guys doing? "experts".. wow.. can i get one of these coushy FF writer jobs. this makes my brain hurt trying to figure out what the hell they were thinking.
PS... lol.. love the sidebar.
still, cant believe him over CJ in the first. I guess bakesale is the reason?
6th, in this league, looks like a good place to be, although not so sure about the RB, RB approach. I just think u miss so much of the extremely solid/high upside RB2s this way, cause ur basicially filling in ur next few picks with second tier receivers, which isnt nessecarily bad, just i feel the second tier rb's are better selections there in the mid rounds. but looking at how some of these guys are drafting.. i dont think it matters.
Posted by: scott c | August 13, 2009 08:20 PM