Davone Bess: 2009 PPR Hero
If I was a bettor forced to wager on the NFL's 2009 receptions leader, I'd put money on Andre Johnson, Eddie Royal, Wes Welker, Jason Witten, Reggie Wayne, and even Chiefs second-stringer Dwayne Bowe all before any Miami Dolphins wide receiver. But it's time to go out on a limb. It's time for a truly Bold Prediction:
Davone Bess will lead the league in receptions this season.
Let's rehash.
Entering camp, Ted Ginn was one of my favorite WR3 targets when almost all signs pointed to Chad Henne replacing Chad Pennington by November. I believed Ginn could offer value because some had attached a "bust" or "disappointment" label to the the former No. 9 overall pick, despite a very promising start to his NFL career. Henne has the stronger arm and could pepper Ginn with intermediate-to-vertical targets. No longer inhibited by Pennington's dink-and-dunk tactics, Ginn would capitalize on his deep threat potential and give Miami just its second 1,000-yard receiver since the Jimmy Johnson era (2005, Chris Chambers is the other).
Now, I'm not so sure.
Henne has failed to narrow the gap during two-a-days after a hot spring and Pennington will enter Week 1 the undisputed starter. Perhaps an injury or Miami's tough on-paper schedule will get him benched eventually, but none of that can be reasonably predicted.
Background on Davone Bess
Despite averaging 98 catches for 1,204 yards and and 14 touchdowns per year in 13-game seasons over three years at Hawaii, Davone Bess went undrafted in 2008 due to his modest size (5'10/193) and speed (4.64 at the Combine). NFL teams were also concerned that Bess was a product of June Jones' run-and-shoot system, which had Colt Brennan at quarterback, and some early-college character concerns.
The Fins signed Bess as a UFA, giving him a two-year contract with a meager $7,000 signing bonus. A long shot to start out, Bess showed flawless hands throughout 2008 camp and earned a roster spot. When Ernest Wilford busted and Greg Camarillo tore his ACL in Week 11, Bess moved into the starting lineup. He caught 35 passes in Miami's final six contests (a 94-catch pace over 16 games) to finish with 54 on the year. It's the most by any undrafted rookie receiver since Wayne Chrebet in 1995.
Davone Bess' 2009 Opportunity and Analysis
As an underneath, slot-type receiver with a valuable combination of hands, route-running ability, short-area quickness, and coverage awareness, Bess has developed an obvious rapport with Pennington. Clearly lacking in the arm strength department, Pennington loves dropping short passes between the linebackers and safeties, or even better, between the linemen and linebackers. Bess is fearless over the middle. Pennington also has no problem throwing to "short" receivers. His favorite pass catchers (5'10" Chrebet, 5'10" Santana Moss, 5'11" Laveranues Coles, 5'11" Ginn, 6'0" Jerricho Cotchery) have all been 6-foot or shorter since that Moss kid at Marshall.
Despite Camarillo's impressive recovery, the Dolphins have all but handed Bess the starting flanker job. He lined up with Ginn and the starters in a two-receiver set at Sunday's scrimmage, then was formally listed atop the Dolphins' depth chart on Monday.
The Dolphins have positioned Bess to be a starting, every-down receiver in a sophomore season during which he should only improve. Bess is someone to get excited about in points-per-reception leagues. As long as Pennington is at quarterback, 90+ catches is a possibility.
Comments
OK, that's a bold prediction. I agree with the upside potential, but it seems like it will still take too many things to go right to take Bess as anything higher than a WR3 or WR4. Actually, he's a perfect WR4 with the potential, but is he safe enough to be a WR3 in leagues that start three WRs or does he have just as much downside risk?
Posted by: Rob | August 11, 2009 03:24 AM
he's a good flyer probably, but no way he's a fantasy starter till he proves it with a few nice games
Posted by: Randy | August 11, 2009 09:28 AM
I enjoy Evan's viewpoint, but that wasn't bold; it was sensational for the sake of being sensational. I think a more reasonable bold prediction would be to say he'll be top 5 or 10 in receptions. AJ coming off of 115 receptions, Welker good for 100, so saying Bess is going to lead the league in receptions is a bit much. Still have to like him as sleeper depth.
Posted by: John | August 11, 2009 09:29 AM
i think the projection is fair to some degree but like u said, pennington is on a short leash if they fall flat this year or *gasp* he gets hurt again. Both are more likely than not. I cant see pennington recapturing that magic again this year. it was already a longshot last season, not it seems even more far fetched.
But, if pennington does make it the whole season, and the offense does move like it did last year, or better, i can see Bess being the best flier pick of the year... maybe even over E.Bennett.
However, downgrading Ginn may be taking it too far. He has progressed each and every year, so he should this year as well even if Pennington stays in. it wouldnt be so hard to fathome two receivers being good on this team. Bess as the posession guy. Ginn as the big play threat. Both will be undervalued in drafts regardless. Pick one and go with em. I think they both have significat upside.
Posted by: scott c | August 11, 2009 01:39 PM
Bess had some decent games for me last year as a late-season fill-in while waiting for Colston to get healthy in a non-PPR league. For me, he'd be a good late-round steal if pickings for WRs becomes slim earlier than I'd like in my drafts. He'd be a WR #3 candidate for me in a PPR-league, but because he won't likely score a lot of TDs, I think he's more likely to be a decent WR#4 in non-PPR leagues who will get you several points when others have byes or get hurt.
Posted by: The_Mick | August 11, 2009 04:12 PM
Chris Johnson will lead the league in receptions in 2009...and cure cancer.
Posted by: Anonymous | August 11, 2009 06:00 PM
Thanks man. You just outed my sleeper.
Posted by: Anonymous | August 11, 2009 08:28 PM