Another Bold Prediction: Schaub the QB1
Flip back a couple posts and you'll see what happens when someone gets on Pancake Blocks at 1:12AM to blog. Chris Wesseling asked if I predicted Davone Bess would lead the NFL in catches after swiping some of LenDale White's patron. No, Wess. It was just a Bold Prediction.
Here's another, this time at 5:38AM:
Matt Schaub will finish 2009 as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback.
Here's why:
1. The Texans are going to throw a ton this season. Houston's pass attempts have skyrocketed annually in Gary Kubiak's three seasons (2006 - 23rd in NFL, 2007 - 11th, 2008 - 4th). Kubiak built his team to throw the football. All five starting offensive linemen are highly athletic, and only one weighs over 320 pounds (LG Chester Pitts - 321). Every player at every non-QB skill position can catch, and the Texans boast one of the deepest receiver groups in the league.
2. He's almost there already. Schaub finished 2008 seventh among QBs in fantasy points per game. This includes Week 9 at Minnesota, when Schaub was pulled at halftime with a knee sprain. His 8.0 yards-per-attempt average -- an indicator of aggressiveness and potency in the vertical passing game -- tied for second in the NFL with Drew Brees. Schaub's 66.1 completion rate was bested by only Chad Pennington, Kurt Warner, and Peyton Manning. Think about it for a minute. High completion rate + large YPA = deadly combination.
3. Schaub's more likely to stay healthy this year. Naturally, a guy gets labeled "fragile" when injuries cost him 10 games in two seasons. But the Texans return all five starting linemen and are convinced they've found an answer at left tackle in 2008 first-round pick Duane Brown, whose play improved down the stretch of his up-and-down rookie year and shed 20 pounds this offseason to improve his feet and mobility in pass protection. Schaub had journeyman Ephraim Salaam on his blind side for all of 2007. Opposing defensive coordinators also suddenly must game plan to stop Steve Slaton, who totaled 1,659 yards as a rookie, rather than put all their effort into getting hits on Schaub.
4. Schaub will have to be more aggressive than ever, at least early in the year. Already coming off a poor season, franchise player Dunta Robinson won't be ready for full-time cornerback duty if he ever returns from his holdout. 2008 No. 1 corner Jacques Reeves is out into the regular season with a fractured fibula. The Texans are breaking in new strong safety Dominique Barber, who only played special teams in his first season and runs a 4.71 forty. The free safety is well-traveled Eugene Wilson. Houston's secondary is in shambles. Teams will score on them, and Schaub will throw to keep up.
5. Schaub is in a comfort zone with Sage Rosenfels off the roster. Rosenfels and his brief bouts of brilliance during Schaub's injury downtime created something of a quarterback controversy in Houston since 2006. Dan "Own Goal" Orlovsky is Schaub's new backup. Rosenfels is now in Minnesota, struggling to pick up the offense.
6. Schaub has quite possibly the best supporting cast in the league. It's hard to beat Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels, and Kevin Walter as options 1-4. A.J. led the league in receiving yards, first downs (by 17 percent), and receptions (115, most by any receiver since '03) last season. Daniels has caught 133 balls over the last two years. Strong after the catch and in the red zone, Walter is as effective a complementary possession receiver as you'll find. And this doesn't include potential-ridden reserve Jacoby Jones, explosive third wideout Andre' Davis, efficient slot receiver David Anderson, or intriguing rookie H-back James Casey, who ranked second in the NCAA in receptions (111) last year and scored 19 all-purpose touchdowns. An injury to one of Houston's top four options? No biggie.
Lucky for us, remaining doubts keep Schaub's Average Draft Position way down. He's lasting until the end of round eight in 10-team drafts, and the middle of the seventh in 12-team formats. Matt Ryan, and his 16 career touchdown passes and run-first offense, are going nearly two full rounds ahead of Schaub. Kurt Warner, and his balky hip and new run-first playcaller, are going four rounds before him.
Schaub needs to be paired with a quality QB2. His injury history is real and dates back to Atlanta, then UVA before that. But from a fantasy perspective, all arrows are pointing up for Schaub entering his third year as a starter. Only Drew Brees and Tom Brady, who will cost you second-round fantasy picks, definitely offer comparable upside.
Comments
Finally, somebody wrote this article. Schaub led the league in yards passing -- 320 per game -- during the last four weeks after he returned from the cheap shot by Jared Allen. That included 414 yards @GB. I hope nobody drafts him too, so I can grab him in rounds 8-10...
Posted by: FreddieMac | August 12, 2009 08:35 AM
I got Romo as my QB, and Schaub as my backup. I def will be starting Schaub over Romo depending on the matchups.
Posted by: Anonymous | August 12, 2009 09:05 AM
I drafted Rivers 2 rounds before Schaub with the goal of starting Schaub.
Posted by: dooger | August 12, 2009 09:08 AM
Now that's a bold prediction with good support. I picked him up off the waiver wire (yes) late last year and he got me to the title game. I'm not sure how Evan can say he's less likely to get injured, but if he can get through 15 of 16 games, he'll put up some monster numbers. Playoff schedule is decent too (SEA, @ STL, @ MIA). My scoring system is not standard - over the past two years Brees and Brady have by far out-performed other QBs (for ex. Brees put up about 5 points per game more than Warner last year). I see Brady primed to put up numbers similar to Brees' last year, but less yardage. NE is not going to look to run; that ship has sailed. If Brees and Brady are gone early, I'll grab Schaub and back him up with Palmer or someone similar.
Posted by: John R. | August 12, 2009 09:32 AM
All legitimate points, although I don't think it's a good idea to pair him with a QB2. He must be paired with a QB1...
The guy is a stud. 22 school records at Virginia that included: yards passing (7,502), TD's (56), completions (716), attempts (1,609), 300-yard games (8),200-yard games (20), and a completion percentage of (.670).
However, never more than 11 games started is a liability you cannot ignore. Because of this, you must draft another QB1 if you plan to roster Schaub as well - this makes your upcoming draft strategy a little more difficult. Obviously if you can land him late, it's gold, but I can assure that you're not going to be the only player willing to reach for him some in 2009.
Schaub must be drafted contingent on the run on QB's through the 6th round. Don't kill your team because you reached for him. The guys above did it perfect. Land the reliable QB1 and if he's still available and not too much of a reach, take him. He could be your weekly starter or excellent trade bait.
He very well could be the #1 fantasy QB in 2009, while Top-5 is easily attainable. He's got a floor of about 3,500 yards and a ceiling around 4,100 yards.
He's ranked as our #10 Dynasty QB with Top-5 upside.
Posted by: BeastOrBust | August 12, 2009 10:00 AM
Agreed, I love Schaub this season. After Brees and Brady, there's a big heap of QBs with similar risk/reward potential, with Schaub near the top of that tier on my cheat sheet. Anyone who drafts a QB early who isn't named Brees or Brady this season is crazy.
Posted by: Matt | August 12, 2009 10:25 AM
Like Evan, I have high hopes for Schaub, but if you're banking on him being your QB1, you shouldn't wait long to get a QB2.
In the mocks I've done so far, if I miss out on the big guns (Brees, Brady, Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, Warner, McNabb), I just wait patiently and snag a Palmer/Schaub combo late. Seems to be working so far.
Posted by: endzoneview | August 12, 2009 12:36 PM