A Preseason Look at Run Defenses
Based on offseason movement while keeping in mind last year's regular season and this year's preseason performances, here are my projections for the NFL's run defenses from best to worst:
1. Pittsburgh (Ziggy Hood and Lawrence Timmons' promotion help)
2. Minnesota (Williams Wall likely to stay eligible, E.J. Henderson back)
3. Baltimore (Kelly Gregg returns, switching to base 4-3 alignment?)
4. NY Giants (coordinator change, but upgrades at DL and OLB)
5. New England (Vince Wilfork playing for contract, better at safety)
6. Chicago (allowed just 3.4 YPC in '08, return all front seven starters)
7. Washington (Albert Haynesworth is obvious difference maker)
8. NY Jets (Bart Scott and Rex Ryan help, David Harris back healthy)
9. San Diego (Jamal Williams impressing, improvement likely at LB)
10. Miami (Jason Ferguson has fall-off-the-cliff risk, but should stay potent)
11. Philadelphia (Stewart Bradley, Jim Johnson's losses are concerning)
12. San Francisco (lost little after surrendering just 3.8 YPC last year)
13. Seattle (Aaron Curry and Cory Redding added, Patrick Kerney back)
14. Dallas (Keith Brooking, Igor Olshansky are new faces at LB, DE)
15. Tennessee (coordinator change, have lost lots of size on the line)
16. Cincinnati (could be higher than this if Rey Maualuga is real deal)
17. Arizona (Calais Campbell is size upgrade over FA loss Antonio Smith)
18. Green Bay (full system change is concerning, but look good so far)
19. Indianapolis (better at DT, moving away from Tampa 2 can only help)
20. New Orleans (LBs aren't run stoppers, but line has plenty of talent)
21. Houston (focus is on aggressiveness now, run clogging later)
22. Tampa Bay (Bucs are bulked up, but hard to have faith in Jim Bates)
23. Atlanta (Curtis Lofton will be better, but still lack much size up front)
24. Jacksonville (Concern that John Henderson is done, musical chairs at LB)
24. Buffalo (tiny at DE; Tampa 2 scheme rarely effective against run)
25. St. Louis (hoping for magic from new scheme, James Laurinaitis)
26. Kansas City (counting on rookie DEs, Zach Thomas, Tank Tyler at nose tackle)
27. Cleveland (save Shaun Rogers, D'Qwell Jackson, front seven isn't talent rich)
28. Oakland (Greg Ellis looks great, but can't stop run until proven otherwise)
29. Carolina (Ma'ake Kemoeatu's loss, Jon Beason injury are devastating)
31. Detroit (Relying on small DEs, retreads at tackle; Jared DeVries out for year)
32. Denver (scheme change; Ryan McBean, Mario Haggan, Kenny Peterson starting)
Comments
Run defense has virtually zero affect on Fantasy football.
So this is relevant how?
Posted by: R O | August 24, 2009 01:25 PM
Because you will have to set your lineup every week and math-ups matter.
If you don't know why this article matter then you should read a fantasy magazine or something.
Posted by: dc | August 24, 2009 01:41 PM
Greg or Evan:
I am a draft guide, season pass subscriber and it seems like the top 200 ppr ranking list han't been updated? Can you let me know when the rankings will be updated? Thanks.
Posted by: JT | August 24, 2009 01:45 PM
A concise, insightful and very helpful list, thanks.
Posted by: Rob | August 24, 2009 01:52 PM
JT - The top 200s have been updated on an item-by-item basis to this point, but we're doing a massive clean-up today. They'll be exactly how we want them by day's end.
Posted by: evan | August 24, 2009 02:01 PM
"Run defense has virtually zero affect on Fantasy football.
So this is relevant how?"
If you're looking at a RB who happens to be in the same division as the top run defenses, you should account for the schedule difficulty.
Conversely, if you're looking at a RB who goes up against a weak team, well, you can take it from there.
It has other implications too, such as who you should draft as a team defense, will Quarterback X have less attempts because of a run-heavy gameplan, etc.
Posted by: brain | August 24, 2009 02:02 PM
Thanks Evan, good news I draft this Sunday! Maybe go wr wr with 7th pick in 10 team 1/2 ppr?
Posted by: JT | August 24, 2009 02:17 PM