August 31, 2009
Based on preseason usage and my own understanding, here is a breakdown of the favorites for goal-line carries and third-down snaps in each NFL team's backfield.
Arizona Cardinals
Starter: Tim Hightower
GL Carries: Tim Hightower/Beanie Wells > Jason Wright
Third Down: Hightower > Wright > LaRod Stephens-Howling
Atlanta Falcons
Starter: Michael Turner
GL Carries: Michael Turner > Ovie Mughelli > Jason Snelling
Third Down: Jerious Norwood > Snelling > Verron Haynes
Baltimore Ravens
Starter: Ray Rice
GL Carries: Willis McGahee > Le'Ron McClain/Ray Rice
Third Down: Rice > McGahee/McClain
Buffalo Bills
Starter: Marshawn Lynch
GL Carries: Marshawn Lynch > Fred Jackson > Xavier Omon
Third Down: Jackson > Lynch > Dominic Rhodes
Carolina Panthers
Starter: DeAngelo Williams
GL Carries: DeAngelo Williams > Jonathan Stewart > Mike Goodson
Third Down: Williams > Goodson/Stewart
Chicago Bears
Starter: Matt Forte
GL Carries: Matt Forte > Kevin Jones > Jason McKie
Third Down: Forte > Jones > Garrett Wolfe/Adrian Peterson
Cincinnati Bengals
Starter: Cedric Benson
GL Carries: Cedric Benson > Bernard Scott > Brian Leonard
Third Down: Benson/Scott > Leonard > DeDe Dorsey
Cleveland Browns
Starter: Jamal Lewis
GL Carries: Jamal Lewis > James Davis > Jerome Harrison
Third Down: Harrison > Davis > Lewis
Dallas Cowboys
Starter: Marion Barber
GL Carries: Marion Barber > Felix Jones > Tashard Choice
Third Down: Barber > Jones > Choice
Denver Broncos
Starter: Correll Buckhalter
GL Carries: Peyton Hillis > LaMont Jordan > Correll Buckhalter
Third Down: Knowshon Moreno > Hillis/Buckhalter > Jordan
Detroit Lions
Starter: Kevin Smith
GL Carries: Kevin Smith > Jerome Felton > Maurice Morris
Third Down: Smith > Morris/Aaron Brown
Green Bay Packers
Starter: Ryan Grant
GL Carries: Ryan Grant > John Kuhn > DeShawn Wynn
Third Down: Brandon Jackson > Wynn > Grant/Tyrell Sutton
Houston Texans
Starter: Steve Slaton
GL Carries: Chris Brown > Steve Slaton > Arian Foster
Third Down: Slaton > Ryan Moats > Brown/Foster
Indianapolis Colts
Starter: Joseph Addai
GL Carries: Joseph Addai/Donald Brown > Chad Simpson > Mike Hart
Third Down: Addai/Brown > Hart > Simpson
Continue reading "Goal-Line and Third-Down Back Breakdowns" »
August 28, 2009
Brandon Marshall's latest shenanigans -- and the ensuing team suspension -- present quite a challenge for the cheat-sheet jockeys.
We know the Broncos can't send him home with pay as the Bucs did with Keyshawn Johnson in 2003. But they can suspend him for a maximum of four games at a time for conduct detrimental to the team. Josh McDaniels' Friday disclosure of a plan to impose an "escalating discipline schedule" makes it clear that further suspensions are in Marshall's future if he continues to act like a petulant jerk.
Continue reading "Forgetting Brandon Marshall?" »
August 27, 2009
Let’s be clear from the start here. Redskins WR Devin Thomas was never one of my deep sleepers for this season anyway. Maybe it’s because I’m a Redskins fan and what they did in that 2008 draft tilted me from Day 1 (I don’t care what your needs are, going WR, TE, WR with three second-round picks can’t be smart. And while we’re on the subject, DeSean Jackson and Martellus Bennett would have looked a lot better in the burgundy and gold.).
But more likely, Thomas was never on my list because despite his significant talent, I never saw him doing much of anything as the fourth-option in a Jason Campbell-run offense.
With yesterday’s news that Malcolm Kelly (also part of that 2008 draft) has passed Thomas on the depth chart, I think it’s clear this situation can safely be ignored on draft day, even if Thomas eventually wrestles the flanker job back.
But since I put the kibosh (like Crazy Joe Davola) on “deep sleeper” Chaz Schilens in this space a couple weeks back, I feel like I owe the rest of the receivers a little something. Hopefully they won’t contract the swine flu or fall off a golf cart tomorrow. Here are the receivers I have circled on my draft board as fliers that are going after pick No. 150 in ESPN’s online drafts:
Continue reading "Six late-round receivers worth a flier" »
Ray Rice's Average Draft Position is rising rapidly, as it should be. The second-year running back is emerging as the centerpiece of Baltimore's offense. Rice's current ADP rests at 66.7, or the late seventh round in 10-team drafts (mid-sixth in 12-team formats). He's still a value there. Let's examine why:
1. Rice is the Ravens' clear-cut starter. Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain split the starts last season, but Rice quietly overtook them at May minicamps and hasn't looked back. He's started both of Baltimore's first two preseason games. In the second, Rice was the only back to play with the first-team offense. McClain entered with the Troy Smith-led second unit. McGahee didn't play until the second half. With a starting job locked up and perhaps the best hands on the team after Derrick Mason (Rice finished third on the Ravens in receptions per game last year), he has the makings of an every-down back.
2. The Ravens will run like crazy. It seems natural for coordinator Cam Cameron to give Joe Flacco "more freedom" in his second year. But Cameron's track record says it won't happen. Cam's recent offenses have ranked 1st (2008), 2nd ('06), 12th ('05), and 4th ('04) in the league in rush attempts. His 2007 Dolphins were 27th, but only because they were horrible and finished 1-15. Anyways, Ronnie Brown led the NFL in yards from scrimmage before his Week 7 ACL tear that year. The Ravens' best talent also isn't at receiver or tight end. Last season's most run-heavy NFL team won't change concepts. That means more opportunities for their new starter.
Continue reading "The Rapid Rise of Ray Rice" »
August 25, 2009
The most interesting news of the day (sorry, Ernest Wilford), is that Cadillac Williams will start the Bucs’ third preseason game.
Yes, that Cadillac Williams. The one with the Frankenstein knees. The one that wasn’t supposed to be a factor this season. The one that no one in their right mind has drafted.
But coach Raheem Morris wasn’t done with surprises today. He also talked about his plans for a 2-2-1 system in the regular system. And he wasn’t talking about Rick Pitino’s zone press scheme. He said that he wants the starting running back to play two series, the No. 2 back to play two series and the third back to take the fifth series. Then the rotation will start over. There will be no designated “goal-line back.”
Well, Raheem, thanks for totally sapping the value out of any of your backs. Why pay Derrick Ward $17 million over four years to touch the ball a few times a quarter?
Anyway, expect Ward to be the “No. 1 guy” when the season starts. Earnest Graham will be No. 2, and his value shouldn’t change too much. Assume Williams will be the No. 3 back and he should only be taken in the deepest of leagues.
The biggest ADP shakeup should instantly come on Ward.
Right now, Ward’s ADP according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com is 47 overall. We had him ranked as the No. 21 overall running back. Scrap those numbers, we’ll be updating our rankings as soon as we get more information.
But just at first glance, I’d move Ward below Ryan Grant, Donald Brown, Joseph Addai, Chris Wells, Reggie Bush and Thomas Jones. Heck I’d probably rather have Larry Johnson and Lendale White over Ward. And considering the latest news that Ray Rice might be a goal-line back, I’d definitely take Rice long before Ward even popped into my head.
Maybe I’m being a little harsh; but I know Ward won’t be on any of my teams unless his ADP sinks to the 9th round level. The NFL’s new backfield-by-committee style has struck again.
The losses of left tackle Walter Jones, left guard Mike Wahle, and center Chris Spencer have decimated the Seahawks' offensive line. No member of Seattle's projected Week 1 unit returns at the same position, and three are new starters. Let's have a look:
LT Sean Locklear - Injury-prone right tackle playing out of position on left; undersized at 6'4/301.
LG Rob Sims - Started 16 games in '07, but deemed ineffective and lost job to Wahle in 2008.
C Steve Vallos - 2007 7th-round pick forced to start five games in 2008 for 4-12 Seahawks.
RG Mansfield Wrotto - Former college defensive tackle has seven career appearances, all in '08.
RT Ray Willis - Ten career starts in five seasons, all in '08 due to Locklear, Jones injuries.
** Jones is supposedly due back 4-6 weeks after his August 20 knee surgery. The optimistic end of that estimate would have Jones back for Week 2, but the odds are heavily against him. He's 35, already had microfracture surgery on the same knee this offseason, and is also dealing with a bad back. The Seahawks will be lucky if Jones is effective by Week 6.
Continue reading "The Sky is Falling in Seattle" »
August 24, 2009
Based on offseason movement while keeping in mind last year's regular season and this year's preseason performances, here are my projections for the NFL's run defenses from best to worst:
1. Pittsburgh (Ziggy Hood and Lawrence Timmons' promotion help)
2. Minnesota (Williams Wall likely to stay eligible, E.J. Henderson back)
3. Baltimore (Kelly Gregg returns, switching to base 4-3 alignment?)
4. NY Giants (coordinator change, but upgrades at DL and OLB)
5. New England (Vince Wilfork playing for contract, better at safety)
6. Chicago (allowed just 3.4 YPC in '08, return all front seven starters)
7. Washington (Albert Haynesworth is obvious difference maker)
8. NY Jets (Bart Scott and Rex Ryan help, David Harris back healthy)
9. San Diego (Jamal Williams impressing, improvement likely at LB)
10. Miami (Jason Ferguson has fall-off-the-cliff risk, but should stay potent)
11. Philadelphia (Stewart Bradley, Jim Johnson's losses are concerning)
12. San Francisco (lost little after surrendering just 3.8 YPC last year)
13. Seattle (Aaron Curry and Cory Redding added, Patrick Kerney back)
14. Dallas (Keith Brooking, Igor Olshansky are new faces at LB, DE)
15. Tennessee (coordinator change, have lost lots of size on the line)
Continue reading "A Preseason Look at Run Defenses" »
August 21, 2009
We did the quarterback tiers of heaven thing on the site today, so let's give the running backs some love with our Fantasy Fix position preview below.
All our Fix shows are on a fancy page over at NBC for easy access. This RB preview starts out with a little cameo by a fellow Tulane alum.
August 20, 2009
At the risk of inundating the blog with industry drafts, I'm going to post one more. I took part in the SOFA Experts Fantasy League Auction last night, so at least this entry explores new ground with the bidding format. By way of introduction, SOFA stands for Site Owners Football Association, and this league uses PPR with a starting lineup of: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 D/ST. Each team's budget is $200.
I participated in the SOFA Auction league for the first time last season (high points, lost in the finals), so I came back this year with a specific strategy based on what I saw at the last auction. Here was the strategy:
Go for superstars, don't worry too much about the bench. Fantasy monsters are much harder to acquire, and I can use the waiver wire in-season to bolster my depth.
Go for undervalued studs who are typically frowned upon in PPR leagues. This particular strategy seems counter-intuitive, but I noticed last season that PPR leaguers turn their noses up at every-week studs who don't catch a lot of passes (i.e. Adrian Peterson).
Grab two high-dollar, plug 'n' play RBs if possible. As a corollary, address WR with three reasonably priced WR2s. Why pay the going price for WR3s (i.e. Kevin Walter) when you can get a high-ceiling WR2 (i.e. Vincent Jackson) for a couple of dollars more?
Stay away from a RB3 flex in this format. A guy like Davone Bess at $5 can give me more consistent weekly production than a LenDale White ($12), Fred Taylor ($12), or even Thomas Jones at $23.
Continue reading "SOFA Auction League Results" »
August 19, 2009
I wrote about Favre yesterday, so we may as well get the other recent returning NFL star out of the way too.
You guys know not to draft Michael Vick in your redraft fantasy leagues? Right?
I'd like to think this post almost goes without saying, but I started to see Michael Vick creeping into ADP data even before the Eagles signed him. (The ADP link is somewhat misleading. Vick is still going undrafted in most leagues; check times drafted. But that number is rising.)
Look, Vick is not going to help your fantasy team in 2009. His only chance would be if Donovan McNabb suffers a season-ending injury. Even in that case, Vick isn’t guaranteed to pass Kevin Kolb on the depth chart early in the year until he learns the Philadelphia system.
Vick said it himself in his surprisingly impressive introductory news conference: he's a long way from being ready to start a NFL game. He has to "crawl before he walks."
Quarterback is such a deep, fungible position in fantasy leagues that it's just not worth drafting a backup "just in case" unless you have a ridiculous amount of roster spots - like 20 or more.
This isn't a moral thing; I'd draft Vick in a heartbeat if the Vikings signed him to start instead of Favre.
Vick may be a regular part of the Philadelphia offense in time, but he'll never be worth putting in your lineup unless he's starting games. His keeper league value is a post for another time, but redraft league owners who take Vick are wasting a roster spot.
And asking for heckling from the other guys in the room.
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