Who will get goal-line carries in Arizona?
Almost immediately after the NFL regular season (during the playoffs and going forward), I begin exploring prospects for the upcoming draft. I do columns on the top-15 prospects at each skill position, and this year added a write-up on the top-25 defenders. During the course of my running back research, I went through the week-by-week Ohio State game books to investigate Chris Wells' short-yardage productivity. He only scored eight touchdowns in 2008 and while watching him extensively on Saturdays I noticed a tendency to dance behind the line of scrimmage. I expected to use his percentages in situations where he ran the football with 2 or fewer yards needed for a first down or touchdown against him.
But I came away impressed. I can't find the statistics(doh), but do recall that Buckeyes coach Jim Tressel often used Dan Herron (six TDs) over Wells in short yardage. I imagine that was done to keep Wells fresh, due to his proclivity for nagging, minor injuries. Wells was a highly effective short-yardage back overall and would often break long runs even with only one or two yards needed for a first. Also, Wells scored 15 times as a sophomore, so it isn't like he lacks a nose for the end zone, despite his fairly low junior-year TD total.
Tim Hightower, the Cards' incumbent short-yardage specialist, was also a "dancer" after unseating Edgerrin James in Week 9 last year. The indecisiveness ultimately cost Hightower his job. The rising second-year back still finished his rookie season with 10 touchdowns, however, and the Cards' coaching staff has oft-compared his skill set to Marion Barber's, so he remains in the mix for goal-line/short-yardage duty.
It's hard to say how the goal-line competition will shake out. The Cards could just end up rotating series between the two, with Hightower expected to start games. Both shed weight this offseason, with Hightower dropping 15 pounds and Beanie 18. The Cardinals list Wells at 6'1/228 (7 pounds lighter than his Scouting Combine measurement) and Hightower at 6'0/222. Wells runs high, so the Cards may lean on Hightower initially. Hightower is also a more experienced short-yardage runner at this level. There are several factors to consider, and a lot of fantasy value will gravitate towards the back getting touchdown carries. The Cardinals will run the football more this year. There will be increased scoring chances for Arizona runners.
Comments
It would be somewhat surprising that a 1st round RB that weighs 230 lbs would be passed over at the goalline for a smaller, lesser talent.
Hell, while we're at it, why don't we ask out loud, "Who will get the goalline carries for the Colts?"
Same situation pretty much, i.e., bring in a 1st round RB to compete with a veteran that's been exposed as not very talented.
Posted by: stx_jay | July 30, 2009 04:30 PM
We definitely could ask that question for the Colts.
Posted by: evan | July 30, 2009 04:58 PM
i think Brown will get it for the colts. he was unbelievably reliable there in college. year i know, college. but addai is less of a sure thing than at short yardage.
Posted by: scott c | July 30, 2009 05:56 PM
i definitely don't think brown will get indianapolis' goal-line carries. brown is a shifty, make-you-miss back whose relies heavily on creative running.
addai is the veteran in the system and short yardage has always been one of his strengths. he's being undervalued in fantasy drafts after an injury-plagued hard luck season.
he's more likely to benefit from brown reducing some of the wear and tear between the 20s. addai had his best years in committees with dominic rhodes and kenton keith.
Posted by: evan | July 30, 2009 06:14 PM
Indy RBs had about 1,600 rushing and 16 TDs in 2007 (2008 was an odd year for them) and about 55 catches. This sounds about right for 2009... maybe add a couple hundred rush yards if you assume Brown is an exceptional talent (i.e., 5.0 YPC).
ARZ RBs had about 1,100 yards rushing and 14 TDs with about 75 catches last year. I think rushing yards go WAY, WAY up, add maybe 3 TDs, subtract a lot of those catches (Beanie won't catch as many as JJ Arrington).
All 4 guys (Addai, Brown, Beanie, Hightower) are pretty undervalued relative to their ADP I think. I'm making it a point to grab a couple of them in any draft when they fall to me.
Posted by: stx_jay | July 30, 2009 08:15 PM
Just look at the Card's FFB playoff week schedule. Absurdly soft doesn't even begin to cover it.
Posted by: Mike | July 30, 2009 08:42 PM
I have the second pick in a rookie draft for a dynasty, so this is loosly reated. I am unsure if the first pick will be Moreno, wells or brown (addai owner so possible). My question in regard to this is I see in Chris's rankings he has Both wells and Moreno over MCFadden from last year. It seems to me McFadden was viewed as the top talent, or close to it last year in a group of great rbs. This year seemed weaker. Why not deal the pick for Mcfadden if you are me?
Posted by: Kirby | July 31, 2009 12:59 AM