Running Back Moves: Jacobs over LT2
The second magazine is a wrap. As usual, I like the second one better than the first. There is more time to fine-tune things; it's not as rushed. Thanks go out to all the awesome guys (and girl) at Beckett Media down in Dallas. The place feels like my second home after going there for six years, especially because of the awesome people there like Mike Obert, Tim Trout, Tracy Hackler, Brad Hastedt, Brett Robertson, and more. Also: we need a TopGolf in NYC!
***
Last week, I went over the minor changes I made for the second magazine at quarterback, while Silva took a look at ch-ch-changes at the IDP positions. Now let's take a look at running back moves.
1. Brandon Jacobs is now ahead of LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook in non-PPR leagues. Tomlinson didn't really move, Jacobs and Westbrook just flipped spots.
It appears I'm down on LT2 and Westbrook this year more than your average analyst. You can read the magazine or draft guide for why, but essentially we hang on to our fantasy heroes too long. I still see them as second round picks, higher for Westy in PPR, but there are too many better (and cheaper) bets that aren't clearly on the decline.
This move essentially didn't pass the "What would I do?" test. Push comes to shove, I wouldn't draft Tomlinson ahead of Jacobs, so I can't rank him that way.
2. Marshawn Lynch passed Derrick Ward. I wrote an article called lessons learned, talking about things to take from previous seasons. One is that we overrate the importance of early season suspensions in drafts. Lynch will be a great player to own for the weeks that matter in fantasy. Be confident you can draft someone to fill in for him in the meantime. (Fred Jackson is a fine option.)
3. Knowshon Moreno and Darren McFadden passed Joseph Addai. The knee surgery didn't help Addai, although I still see these three close. But it wouldn't surprise me if Donald Brown is the best Colts back by year's end. Brown is next after Addai in the ranks.
4. Earnest Graham passed Fred Jackson and Jamal Lewis. The Browns starter fell a few more spots. Lewis is either going to lose carries or continue to be ineffective. I want some upside with a RB3/4 pick. Jerome Harrison got a small bump after a nice summer.
5. Ahmad Bradshaw climbed a few spots. It sounds like Andre Brown isn't going to be a serious threat to Bradshaw's role - yet. I wrote this the other day, but Bradshaw is a player I loved last year that will get it done a year later. Post-hype All Star, here we come.
6. I project Westbrook to lose some early season touches while the Eagles play it safe with him. That helped LeSean McCoy move up. Ladell Betts is another backup I bumped up slightly for a larger projected role. Portis is another back will be drafted too early.
There were other cosmetic changes, but nothing earth shattering. All these moves are for non-PPR formats. The changes made to the projections obviously effect our PPR rankings as well. More will happen to impact the rankings in the first week of training camp than happened since the draft, so this all remains subject to change in our draft guide.
***
I usually take a week this time of year to wind down from the magazine and rest up for the season, but my role at PFT and other factors will prevent that this year. Woo! We should keep the content coming here and in columns, even if there isn't much news to discuss.
Comments
I agree with the fact that people hold on to fantasy names for too long but you have to be smart about it. Writing off LT2 aint smart. Marty Schottenhiemer always compared LT2 to Payton. I respect Marty so i did the same. At 29 LT2 has 8yrs., 2657 carries and 15,561 yds from scrimmage under his belt. Walter had 9yrs. (one strike shortened) 2664 carries and 14,713 yds from scrimmage. In the three yrs from ages 30-32 Walter averaged 1933 yds from scrimmage. LT2 has had to deal with some bumps recently but with history and Norv Turner as a coach I still Like LT2 as a 1st rounder.
Posted by: pazz | July 20, 2009 01:19 PM
Greeting. Nothing in the world can take the place of Persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan 'Press On' has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race. Help me! Help to find sites on the: Distance education certificate. I found only this - distance education masters. Your conversations and people about 12 figure others are related by apprehensive people, heat stores, people, and some skills. Just, i posted to thus repeat all and then see how to cover twitter. THX :-(, Del from Switzerland.
Posted by: Del | November 12, 2009 06:19 PM