Running Back Moves: Jacobs over LT2
The second magazine is a wrap. As usual, I like the second one better than the first. There is more time to fine-tune things; it's not as rushed. Thanks go out to all the awesome guys (and girl) at Beckett Media down in Dallas. The place feels like my second home after going there for six years, especially because of the awesome people there like Mike Obert, Tim Trout, Tracy Hackler, Brad Hastedt, Brett Robertson, and more. Also: we need a TopGolf in NYC!
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Last week, I went over the minor changes I made for the second magazine at quarterback, while Silva took a look at ch-ch-changes at the IDP positions. Now let's take a look at running back moves.
1. Brandon Jacobs is now ahead of LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook in non-PPR leagues. Tomlinson didn't really move, Jacobs and Westbrook just flipped spots.
It appears I'm down on LT2 and Westbrook this year more than your average analyst. You can read the magazine or draft guide for why, but essentially we hang on to our fantasy heroes too long. I still see them as second round picks, higher for Westy in PPR, but there are too many better (and cheaper) bets that aren't clearly on the decline.
This move essentially didn't pass the "What would I do?" test. Push comes to shove, I wouldn't draft Tomlinson ahead of Jacobs, so I can't rank him that way.
2. Marshawn Lynch passed Derrick Ward. I wrote an article called lessons learned, talking about things to take from previous seasons. One is that we overrate the importance of early season suspensions in drafts. Lynch will be a great player to own for the weeks that matter in fantasy. Be confident you can draft someone to fill in for him in the meantime. (Fred Jackson is a fine option.)
3. Knowshon Moreno and Darren McFadden passed Joseph Addai. The knee surgery didn't help Addai, although I still see these three close. But it wouldn't surprise me if Donald Brown is the best Colts back by year's end. Brown is next after Addai in the ranks.
4. Earnest Graham passed Fred Jackson and Jamal Lewis. The Browns starter fell a few more spots. Lewis is either going to lose carries or continue to be ineffective. I want some upside with a RB3/4 pick. Jerome Harrison got a small bump after a nice summer.
5. Ahmad Bradshaw climbed a few spots. It sounds like Andre Brown isn't going to be a serious threat to Bradshaw's role - yet. I wrote this the other day, but Bradshaw is a player I loved last year that will get it done a year later. Post-hype All Star, here we come.
6. I project Westbrook to lose some early season touches while the Eagles play it safe with him. That helped LeSean McCoy move up. Ladell Betts is another backup I bumped up slightly for a larger projected role. Portis is another back will be drafted too early.
There were other cosmetic changes, but nothing earth shattering. All these moves are for non-PPR formats. The changes made to the projections obviously effect our PPR rankings as well. More will happen to impact the rankings in the first week of training camp than happened since the draft, so this all remains subject to change in our draft guide.
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I usually take a week this time of year to wind down from the magazine and rest up for the season, but my role at PFT and other factors will prevent that this year. Woo! We should keep the content coming here and in columns, even if there isn't much news to discuss.
Comments
Not sure which is more popular, PPR or non, but the idea of PPR repulses me unless you get negative points for drops. I consider it a WR's job to catch the ball just as it is for a RB to successfully take the hand-off.
Posted by: hoosy | July 13, 2009 02:24 PM
Amen! You know datz right, hoosy.
Posted by: babyin' it old skool | July 13, 2009 09:59 PM
Thank you hoosy, thank you.
Posted by: Dug | July 13, 2009 11:29 PM
PPR is for people who can't draft. You get a point if you catch a ball for zero yards? For negative yards? Positive yardage and TD's are how points are scored in the NFL and should be in FFL
Posted by: Chuck Norris | July 14, 2009 03:51 PM
The PPR idea I have been pushing is that you only get 1 point for a catch if it results in a first down.
Posted by: Vandelay Industries | July 17, 2009 05:49 PM
you project westbrook to lose carries while the eagles take it easy on him early in the season? are you stupid? it has nothing to do with taking care of a player it has everything to do with how much they need him in close games. hmm...genius? so its tied with 10 minutes in the game..lets sit westbrook to take it easy on him. lol.
Posted by: GOD | July 18, 2009 01:32 AM
I'd love to get LT with a round two pick, though that's less than likely: a quick check shows LT is going with the avg. 12th pick at CBS and the avg. 8th pick at ESPN. We may have a better idea of what to expect when my drafts at held - both on Sept. 5 - but if the writers keep souring on him for speculative reasons, it might be an excellent strategy to pass on LT in the first round and take a comparable RB or a top WR, then hope to steal LT in round 2. I got Portis that way last year in a Ravens' fans league, where most players lived near D.C. and knew Portis was coming back from injuries.
Posted by: Anonymous | July 18, 2009 06:40 PM