Running Back Moves: Jacobs over LT2
The second magazine is a wrap. As usual, I like the second one better than the first. There is more time to fine-tune things; it's not as rushed. Thanks go out to all the awesome guys (and girl) at Beckett Media down in Dallas. The place feels like my second home after going there for six years, especially because of the awesome people there like Mike Obert, Tim Trout, Tracy Hackler, Brad Hastedt, Brett Robertson, and more. Also: we need a TopGolf in NYC!
***
Last week, I went over the minor changes I made for the second magazine at quarterback, while Silva took a look at ch-ch-changes at the IDP positions. Now let's take a look at running back moves.
1. Brandon Jacobs is now ahead of LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook in non-PPR leagues. Tomlinson didn't really move, Jacobs and Westbrook just flipped spots.
It appears I'm down on LT2 and Westbrook this year more than your average analyst. You can read the magazine or draft guide for why, but essentially we hang on to our fantasy heroes too long. I still see them as second round picks, higher for Westy in PPR, but there are too many better (and cheaper) bets that aren't clearly on the decline.
This move essentially didn't pass the "What would I do?" test. Push comes to shove, I wouldn't draft Tomlinson ahead of Jacobs, so I can't rank him that way.
2. Marshawn Lynch passed Derrick Ward. I wrote an article called lessons learned, talking about things to take from previous seasons. One is that we overrate the importance of early season suspensions in drafts. Lynch will be a great player to own for the weeks that matter in fantasy. Be confident you can draft someone to fill in for him in the meantime. (Fred Jackson is a fine option.)
3. Knowshon Moreno and Darren McFadden passed Joseph Addai. The knee surgery didn't help Addai, although I still see these three close. But it wouldn't surprise me if Donald Brown is the best Colts back by year's end. Brown is next after Addai in the ranks.
4. Earnest Graham passed Fred Jackson and Jamal Lewis. The Browns starter fell a few more spots. Lewis is either going to lose carries or continue to be ineffective. I want some upside with a RB3/4 pick. Jerome Harrison got a small bump after a nice summer.
5. Ahmad Bradshaw climbed a few spots. It sounds like Andre Brown isn't going to be a serious threat to Bradshaw's role - yet. I wrote this the other day, but Bradshaw is a player I loved last year that will get it done a year later. Post-hype All Star, here we come.
6. I project Westbrook to lose some early season touches while the Eagles play it safe with him. That helped LeSean McCoy move up. Ladell Betts is another backup I bumped up slightly for a larger projected role. Portis is another back will be drafted too early.
There were other cosmetic changes, but nothing earth shattering. All these moves are for non-PPR formats. The changes made to the projections obviously effect our PPR rankings as well. More will happen to impact the rankings in the first week of training camp than happened since the draft, so this all remains subject to change in our draft guide.
***
I usually take a week this time of year to wind down from the magazine and rest up for the season, but my role at PFT and other factors will prevent that this year. Woo! We should keep the content coming here and in columns, even if there isn't much news to discuss.
Comments
Jacobs is awesome and fun to watch, but he takes a beating and thus he's not much of a work horse. I'd be more worried about him breaking down.
LT will still be a top 5 back. He's a much different type of runner than say a Shaun Alexander, and avoids direct contact much better. I see a bounce back season more than a serious decline, 30 or not. The receiving skills and supporting cast will go a long way towards getting him back where he belongs.
Posted by: Grid | July 12, 2009 08:02 PM
USUALLY - Greg and I see eye to eye. not here though. LT will have a very nice bounce back year. Good O Line. Runs in a VERY WEAK division of run D's. And just has to stay healthy to have a top 5 RB year. In a PPR league, after MJD, Forte, AP and maybe SJAX - LT is right there. would take him over say a M. Turner in a heartbeat.
Posted by: scott l. | July 12, 2009 09:23 PM
well this means absolutely nothing to me as i only play ppr. quick question: when exactly did non-ppr take the reigns in ff as the "standard" way of playing? is there a way to see which format is more popular?
Posted by: scott c | July 12, 2009 10:40 PM
LT is likely not a top-5 back this year. He's 30 years old and avg'd 3.8 ypc while having the second easiest strength of schedule in '08. This year the Chargers play the NFC east and the AFC north 6 of those 8 teams were in the top 15 in run defense last year. Tough sledding to say the least.
Posted by: Matt Bright | July 13, 2009 01:11 AM
LT's done. I drafted him with the first pick last year in a nail biter b/w him and Purple Jesus... I regretted that decision shortly thereafter. He's already had his down season to start the backslide at 30... this year will be worse.
Posted by: Matt Dibble | July 13, 2009 10:38 AM
LT2 is all over the rankings, early to late first. Good move or bad move, as any pick will prove it's worth at season end. Here is my answer as to where to draft LT2. You have to ask yourself, is LT2 that special guy. Can he perform aging into his 30's. Who reading this thinks LT2 can run for 1,171 yards this season? Why 1,171, because it puts him ahead of Jim Brown in rushing yards. Now who thinks he can average that over the next three seasons? If he does he passes Barry Sanders for 3rd in all time rushing yards. Now at this point LT2 whould be 33 years old. How important does LT2 feel his legacy is, very important? So he very well could average more. Follow me here, does anyone else think LT2 looks like a shark frome a side view, ok maybe it's just me. But my point is can he smell blood in the water. Everyone knows LT2 favorite NFL player is Walter Payton. Does LT2 smell blood? Does he have what it takes, blood, sweat, and tears to pass his hero. The drive that burns iside us to be great. How hot does it burn inside LT2. If you think he's burned out don't draft till the second round. If you think his fire burns hot in the deepest pits of his soul, take LT2 early and lauqh at your criticks at seasons end. Is LT2 that guy, that special guy.
Posted by: Shannon | July 13, 2009 10:42 AM
Geez, Shannon, you wouldn't happen to write commercials for Gatorade or something, would you? :-)
Posted by: Juggs | July 13, 2009 01:28 PM