Running Back Moves: Jacobs over LT2
The second magazine is a wrap. As usual, I like the second one better than the first. There is more time to fine-tune things; it's not as rushed. Thanks go out to all the awesome guys (and girl) at Beckett Media down in Dallas. The place feels like my second home after going there for six years, especially because of the awesome people there like Mike Obert, Tim Trout, Tracy Hackler, Brad Hastedt, Brett Robertson, and more. Also: we need a TopGolf in NYC!
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Last week, I went over the minor changes I made for the second magazine at quarterback, while Silva took a look at ch-ch-changes at the IDP positions. Now let's take a look at running back moves.
1. Brandon Jacobs is now ahead of LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook in non-PPR leagues. Tomlinson didn't really move, Jacobs and Westbrook just flipped spots.
It appears I'm down on LT2 and Westbrook this year more than your average analyst. You can read the magazine or draft guide for why, but essentially we hang on to our fantasy heroes too long. I still see them as second round picks, higher for Westy in PPR, but there are too many better (and cheaper) bets that aren't clearly on the decline.
This move essentially didn't pass the "What would I do?" test. Push comes to shove, I wouldn't draft Tomlinson ahead of Jacobs, so I can't rank him that way.
2. Marshawn Lynch passed Derrick Ward. I wrote an article called lessons learned, talking about things to take from previous seasons. One is that we overrate the importance of early season suspensions in drafts. Lynch will be a great player to own for the weeks that matter in fantasy. Be confident you can draft someone to fill in for him in the meantime. (Fred Jackson is a fine option.)
3. Knowshon Moreno and Darren McFadden passed Joseph Addai. The knee surgery didn't help Addai, although I still see these three close. But it wouldn't surprise me if Donald Brown is the best Colts back by year's end. Brown is next after Addai in the ranks.
4. Earnest Graham passed Fred Jackson and Jamal Lewis. The Browns starter fell a few more spots. Lewis is either going to lose carries or continue to be ineffective. I want some upside with a RB3/4 pick. Jerome Harrison got a small bump after a nice summer.
5. Ahmad Bradshaw climbed a few spots. It sounds like Andre Brown isn't going to be a serious threat to Bradshaw's role - yet. I wrote this the other day, but Bradshaw is a player I loved last year that will get it done a year later. Post-hype All Star, here we come.
6. I project Westbrook to lose some early season touches while the Eagles play it safe with him. That helped LeSean McCoy move up. Ladell Betts is another backup I bumped up slightly for a larger projected role. Portis is another back will be drafted too early.
There were other cosmetic changes, but nothing earth shattering. All these moves are for non-PPR formats. The changes made to the projections obviously effect our PPR rankings as well. More will happen to impact the rankings in the first week of training camp than happened since the draft, so this all remains subject to change in our draft guide.
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I usually take a week this time of year to wind down from the magazine and rest up for the season, but my role at PFT and other factors will prevent that this year. Woo! We should keep the content coming here and in columns, even if there isn't much news to discuss.
Comments
i love how down people are on LT2. please continue to write him off. take Jacobs instead. he'll be great until he gets hurt in week 4. (indeed, you also move Bradshaw up on the theory that he's got a good shot at a larger role.) meanwhile, the entire SD offense will continue to be run through LT2. it's one thing to hang onto our heroes for too long, but it's another thing to write off a guy too soon who doesn't take big hits. if marcus mcneill has a better season, we're talking about where we draft LT2 in the 1st round.
Posted by: veggieb | July 12, 2009 03:39 PM
LT still gets over 1,000 yrs. 10 + TD's and can still run like he always does. love how ppl are riding him off this year. He is still a top 5 RB pick in drafts. still productive and plays with a great O - Line and team around him.
Posted by: Misfit | July 12, 2009 03:44 PM
Now since Jacobs is the go too guy in NY since they have zero WR's he will take such a beating from giants keep giving him the ball that he will get hurt and wear down so much. i won't be drafting him nor Eli Manning this year. ol' eli is gonna have a down season without any WR's
Posted by: Trade King | July 12, 2009 03:47 PM
Our Dynasty RB Rankings of those players mentioned above...
(7)Marshawn Lynch, (15) Darren McFadden, (16) Brandon Jacobs, (18) Knowshon Moreno, (22) Brian Westbrook, (26) Joseph Addai, (27) LT2, (30) Donald Brown, (33) Clinton Portis, (34) Ahmad Bradshaw, (36) LeSean McCoy, (43) Fred Jackson, (47) Derrick Ward, (48) Jerome Harrison, (>50) Jamal Lewis and Earnest Graham.
Posted by: BeastOrBust | July 12, 2009 06:31 PM
I agree LT is done, he is 30 and running backs break down at 30, remember Shaun Alexander? LT will suffer the same fate. He is a number 2 back now not a number 1. Lynch will be a steal this year hopefully he drops like he is predictated to.
Posted by: jeff | July 12, 2009 07:33 PM
beastorbust, you idiots rank Cutler over Rivers in a dynasty, nobody will ever take you seriously when you have blatantly incorrect predictions on your main page and when you try to piggyback on rotoworld for your 100 hits a day.
Posted by: lol | July 12, 2009 07:36 PM
yikes, looks like i was being generous about 100 a day.
Posted by: lol | July 12, 2009 07:45 PM