On Favre and Vick
For now, we're assuming J.D. Booty will sport No. 4 for the Vikings this season
When drafting a fantasy football team, we can only go on what we know. We know Brett Favre is probably re-re-retired. We know the Vikings traded for Sage Rosenfels in February and handed him a $9 million extension. He'll collect $3.4 million this year.
That isn't usual starting quarterback money, but it's more than six times "competitor" Tarvaris Jackson's $535K salary. Rosenfels is the favorite to start.
Rosenfels is a poor man's Favre. He is highly aggressive, sometimes to a fault, offers adequate to above average arm strength, and is effective on the move. Rosenfels made 10 spot starts over the last two seasons when Matt Schaub was injured in Houston. A 21:22 TD to INT ratio with 8 fumbles over that span shows that Rosenfels isn't always careful with the rock.
But an outstanding 65.2 percent completion rate and stout 7.5 yards-per-attempt average reflect that Rosenfels is accurate enough at all levels to be effective in Darrell Bevell and Brad Childress' precision-based West Coast offense. Fittingly, Texans coach Gary Kubiak (of Bill Walsh influence) runs a variation of the West Coast system, so Rosenfels shouldn't face a steep learning curve in camp.
Rosenfels is in a competition and won't have as much freedom in Minnesota's run-first offense as he did with Houston. That keeps him out of the top-20 quarterbacks. But there still aren't many late-round fantasy backups with more upside. We'd take The Rosenfels Experience over Marc Bulger, Jake Delhomme, Chad Pennington, Brady Quinn, and JaMarcus Russell. He's behind Trent Edwards, Matt Hasselbeck, Jason Campbell, and Joe Flacco.
Mike Vick's 2009 fantasy outlook is dim
As for Michael Vick, it's unreasonable to have any kind of expectations for 2009. He's just recently removed from federal prison, and no teams have shown serious interest in the free agent.
Vick hasn't taken a hit since the end of his 20-touchdown 2006 season. He'll probably get signed as a No. 2 quarterback/Wildcat option.
Vick's best chance to start would be in Washington if agent Joel Segal can coax win-now owner Dan Snyder into giving his client a shot. Throwing salt on this idea is the fact that Vick lacks the accuracy (53.8% career completions) to succeed in coach Jim Zorn's system. Vick was a square peg in a round hole from 2004-2006 under former Falcons coordinator Greg Knapp, who ran an offense similar to Zorn's. Vick's completion rates and YPA averages dipped almost annually in those seasons.
The Steelers, Patriots, and possibly the Jaguars (no matter what coach Jack Del Rio says -- GM Gene Smith calls the shots) appear to be Vick's most viable alternatives. Vick would be a clear-cut backup in all three locales, although opportunity could arise in Jacksonville if David Garrard struggled early in the year.
In sum, it's a big stretch to think Vick will offer value in 2009, even as a fantasy backup. He's worth grabbing in dynasty/deep keeper leagues as a "flier" for the future, but you definitely don't want him in a standard setting.
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Comments
Interesting comments - thanks as always. Rotoworld seems to have a lot more confidence in Sage than Minnesota media who seem convinced that Jackson's late season 'development', his knowledge of the offence, and the fact he was Chilly's draft choice, give him the edge. Please remember that Chilly HATES turnovers - a big concern with Sage. How different is Sage than Frerotte, who Chilly left benched after injury because of his propensity to turn the ball over?
Posted by: Boesy | July 29, 2009 03:41 PM
Now that the Favre soap opera is over (please God let that be true...) the Vikings should go after Vick. Sure Childress runs a version of the West Coast offense, but with Vick aboard, he would hardly ever have to pass. AP could run the ball 20-25 times a game, Vick could run about 10-15 and only have to complete an occasional pass to keep the defenses honest. Our receivers aren't that great anyway, so it wouldn't be much different than what he was working with in Atlanta.
Posted by: Reaper | July 29, 2009 03:44 PM
The minnesota QB situation is interesting as it is now, minus favre. sage seems like an odd pick for that offense. hes not a game manager. he is more JTOsullivan, thank J.Delhomme. In a run first offense i really dont see a good fit for rosenfelds. sure he is an upgrade, and the receivers, et all should benefit from his better accuracy/talent over tavaris, but i dont think it will be as much as hoped. I really see that he is a bad fit there. That offense would be really good, and is more suited for an athletic, game managing qb, ie: tavaris jackson if he was good. tavaris is a poor mans Vick. If Vick is anything of what he was (which I doubt) than, he would be ideal for that team. or better said, Vick 2006 would be a great fit. Vick 2009, prob not. He has just too long of a way to go to get back at where he was.
Posted by: scott c | July 29, 2009 04:05 PM
http://blogs.startribune.com/vikingsblog/?p=3081
The Vikings have already stated they have no interest in Vick.
Posted by: bear0402 | July 29, 2009 04:33 PM
http://blogs.startribune.com/vikingsblog/?p=3081
The Vikings have already stated they have no interest in Vick.
Posted by: bear0402 | July 29, 2009 04:34 PM
Tarvaris 26, 19 starts, 20-18 (524 attempts), 76.5 rating.
Rosenfels 31, 12 starts, 30-29 (562), 81.2 rating.
In his NFL career, Jackson has more starts and a lower passer rating. Moreover, he clearly doesn't attack the defense nearly as much as Rosenfels.
Rosenfels is 31 and thus supposedly qualifies under "he is what he is". Career clipboard holders who get a chance to play certainly have a leg up experience-wise on young players thrust into the fire. But they still deserve a chance to improve.
Trent Green, a similar comp to Rosenfels in many ways, threw 17 TDs and 24 INTs in 2001 with KC, and the oh-so-classy Jason Whitlock dubbed him TrInt. Over the next 4 years, he led the most prolific offense in the NFL and put up QB stats second only to Peyton Manning.
Rosenfels should see a similar leap in an offense with elite personnel. His non-turnover efficiency is spectacular. That nightmare game against Indianapolis should act as the signature moment in finishing his learning curve. If Harvin is half what some people are expecting, the Vikings will have a dynamic three-some in Berrian (the deep threat), Rice (the red zone monster), and Harvin (the slot, in-space dynamo).
Starting Jackson would dramatically decrease the output of each of the surrounding offensive skill players (including and especially the RBs, similar to the analysis of O'Sullivan v. Hill for Gore's performance). It won't happen, regardless of what is suggested by the local scribes or idiotic ESPN (whose crawl yesterday indicated Jackson to start).
I think Rosenfels has shown enough potential to be ranked ahead of Edwards (who's evidently smart enough to inadvertently call out Lee Evans, a top 10 NFL receiver until Edwards - or by his spirit name He Who Lacks the Arm or Courage to Throw Downfield - came along), Hasselbeck (who's playing for Greg Knapp), Campbell (who isn't very good and lacks talent around him), and Flacco (who is a stud in an offense completely and total devoid of anything).
Also, I think its "The Sage Rosenfels Experience". When your first name is Sage it's definitely part of the experience.
Posted by: The Dude Abides | July 29, 2009 04:50 PM
why does the media keep saying that Vick might go to Pittsburgh? the tomlin/dungy connection doesn't mean squat in this context. the rooneys would NEVER sign vick. end of story. absurd, really.
Posted by: veggieb | July 29, 2009 05:26 PM