"Keep the Lead" LenDale losing value
Evan Silva admitted this morning that my Chris Johnson crush is wearing off on him as he recently selected the high-ceiling back in two industry drafts. With LenDale White due to see fewer touches this season, Johnson is a savvy first-round selection.
We already know that the Titans want to expand Johnson's role. Coaches Jeff Fisher and Mike Heimerdinger spent part of the offseason plotting creative ways to get the ball in Johnson's hands in space. If Nate Washington and Justin Gage can carry over their impressive play from OTAs, defenses won't be able to keep an extra defender in the box.
That's all well and good, but how do we know LenDale's carries will decline?
Much of it has to do with the loss of the game's most dominant defensive player. As Jason Lisk pointed out in the Pro Football Reference blog, Johnson is the Titans "Get the Lead" back while White is the "Keep the Lead" back. Johnson's 294 touches in 15 games carried a standard deviation of just 4.0, which means Johnson's workload was one of the more consistent in recent memory. White's carries, though, are directly tied to situation and game momentum. Simply put, Johnson gets the ball early in the game and also when the Titans are trailing or involved in a back-and-forth contest. White's touches come late and with the lead, when the Titans are trying to take the air of the football.
While Lisk does an excellent job of showing the difference in usage and consistency between the two backs, the 2007 season provides a more stark snapshot of Albert Haynesworth's impact on LenDale's value. White was cruising into mid-season action with three straight 100-yard performances, feasting on a Haynesworth-led defense which allowed the Titans to play grind-it-out football. He averaged close to 30 carries for four straight weeks leading up to Week 10, when Haynesworth began a string of three missed games with a hamstring injury. With Haynesworth out those three weeks, White posted his three worst performances of the season. Heretofore a workhorse back, White averaged just 10 carries and less than 30 yards per game. The Titans were forced to alter their style when the defense couldn't stymie opposing offenses.
The writing is on the wall for LenDale. Haynesworth's exit means fewer plays for the "Keep the Lead" back, and the coach's plans clearly call for a larger role for the "Get the Lead" back.
Comments
To get even more specific -- When Haynesworth missed those three games in '07 the Titans surrendered over 32 points per game. In the other 13 contests, the Titans allowed 15.4 PPG, which would've easily led the NFL. Tennessee's offense is going to be improved this year with better wideout and (probably) better running back play, but the defense threatens to be very mediocre.
As Wess says, closer games = More C.J. and less LenDale
Posted by: evan | July 28, 2009 03:13 PM
Lendale will be a poor-man's everthing this year. No real value, yet ppl will still draft him. Not me. Especially with the fact that his contract is up next year, and they got Ringer or another back in Draft '10 to add to the pipline. I see no real value in him at all. CJ is def a top 5 back in PPR, if not higher.
Posted by: scott c | July 28, 2009 03:14 PM
All good points but you are forgetting about the most important point: Cheeseburgers supply.
In the offseason, Lendale White has lost a lot of weight. One would think that this was due to an increased work ethic or that perhaps Lendale "was off the cheeseburgers". Not so. Lendale is in fact, using his longterm planning skills to maximize his potential cheeseburger supply. Lendale knows that by running a cheeseburger deficit this offseason and using his new found speed to have a career year in Tennessee before his contract is up, he can earn the most potential money on his next contract or "future cheeseburger dollars" as he calls it (robble, robble). Ultimately, he will spend his winnings in an effort to create what he has coined, "a longterm cheeseburger surplus" or "cheeseburg-topia". Lendale is going to have a career year. You heard it here first.
Posted by: Captain Obvious | July 28, 2009 03:28 PM
Thanks, Evan. Those are good points.
The Titans offense should be much improved, and they're entering the season as one of most overrated defenses in the NFL.
As Cris Collinsworth once told Bryant Gumble, "If I can teach you anything about football, it's that the game is all about double-teams. Whether you're a wide receiver or a defensive lineman, it's all about taking up two defenders and leaving someone else to take advantage of single coverage."
The '08 Titans had two such players: Haynesworth and Chris Johnson. Haynesworth is gone, and the rest of the defense will no longer be feasting on the extra attention he drew.
Posted by: Wess | July 28, 2009 03:34 PM
Oh there will be a feast alright. A cheeseburger feast circa summer 2010. ..of epic proportions.
Posted by: Captain Obvious | July 28, 2009 03:40 PM
You gotta love CJ this year in ppr leagues, I have him top 5 easily, even higher in dynasty leagues.
He tore up the league as a rookie, so how could you deny him with an expanded role and the coaches wanting to get him more receptions?
Yes he doesn't get all the TD's, but he was top 10 last year, with the increase in touches I see no reason why he won't be top 5.
Also a great point to remember, is that he totaled 10 TD's last year in his 1st year.
Frank Gore, who is a feature back, doesn't share carries and never has, has NEVER reached 10 total TD's before, EVER.
So why can't anyone see the upside with CJ? He has a goal line vulture yet still finds the end zone more then guys like Frank Gore who gets all his goal line carries and people are in love with.
Posted by: Chris R. | July 28, 2009 04:21 PM
Love CJ for 2009 and even more after that. Lendale is a goal line stealing slug in a walk year.
The Titans will let him walk, but before they do they want to make sure Every Coaches Dream can handle the increased workload. he is in line for an increase in touches this year on a run first team.
He's a definite high upside selection at the backend of round 1 / early round 2 in a redraft, Top 5 pick in a dynasty draft, especially PPR.
Posted by: BeastOrBust | July 28, 2009 04:52 PM