July 20, 2009
Since the unveiling of our first offseason Dynasty rankings back in May, spring practices have seen several players gaining momentum while others are losing steam. Here’s a brief look at the wide receiver movement:
Rising
1. Chad Ochocinco – Ocho may have murdered your 2008 fantasy season with a lethal combination of a bad attitude, zero commitment, and Ryan Fitzpatrick's noodle arm, but there's reason to believe that his actions are speaking louder than his words this year. He at least appears to be legitimately primed for a turnaround.
2. Brandon Marshall – As Rosey pointed out earlier, Marshall has thus far avoided an NFL suspension for the 2009 season. He still holds major knucklehead potential, but it now looks like a fully healthy Marshall will be suiting up for the Broncos in Week 1 despite his drama-filled offseason.
Continue reading "Dynasty Rising/Falling: Wide Receivers" »
So far, we've looked at the rankings changes I made for our second magazine at quarterback, running back., and IDP positions. Now let's look at the receiver moves.
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1. The lack of a suspension for Brandon Marshall moved him up nine spots to number 12. I have him atop his tier, above bounceback candidates Braylon Edwards and Chad Ochocinco. Buffalo starters Lee Evans and Terrell Owens are just below. If Marshall's hip looks recovered in camp, he'll move up a little more.
2. I flipped Santonio Holmes and Vincent Jackson. Both players are inconsistent week-to-week, but Jackson has a higher ceiling. Still not sure if Jackson's DUI could catch up with him.
Continue reading "Marshall's move and other wideout changes" »
July 17, 2009
Since the unveiling of our first offseason Dynasty rankings back in May, spring practices have seen several players gaining momentum while others are losing steam. Here’s a brief look at the running back movement:
Rising
1. Pierre Thomas – Ultra-effective as a runner, receiver and goal-line option, Thomas has overtaken Reggie Bush as the fantasy back to own in the Saints offense. While his coach flirted with bigger backs, Thomas spent the offseason adding muscle to grind out tough inside yardage and withstand a heavier workload. Jon Gruden's pick as the best-kept secret in the NFL has "breakout" written all over him.
2. Ray Rice – Based on his work in OTAs, Rice is now poised to lead the Ravens' three-headed attack. Already the best backfield pass-catcher, he's added noticeable bulk and improved his blocking skills. Considering McGahee's possible (probable?) 2010 exit and John Harbaugh's belief that Rice has everydown-back abilities, he could see his value skyrocket by next offseason.
Continue reading "Dynasty Rising/Falling: Running Backs" »
Subscribers of our draft guide will notice that Derrick Mason remains the rankings. This isn't because we're lazy; it's because Mason isn't retired yet. Based on everything we've heard, I don't think he will.
Granted, there is a fair bit of speculation going on here. But people close to the situation believe there is a good chance he'll play. It's also the middle of July. We anticipate getting an update about his visit with Ravens coach John Harbaugh fairly soon. If he's still not back on the field early in camp, we'll adjust accordingly.
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Mark Clayton stands to benefit the most if Mason follows through and retires. We ranked Clayton as the WR47 before the Mason news. This is higher than his ADP in most places, even after the news.
I remember being a little surprised he came out that optimistic, but someone had to catch Joe Flacco's passes. I was a big fan of Clayton before and after his rookie year, but he's proven spotty at best since then.
Continue reading "Not moving Mason yet" »
July 16, 2009
Since the unveiling of our first offseason Dynasty rankings back in May, spring practices have seen several players gaining momentum while others are losing steam. Here’s a brief look at the quarterback movement:
Rising
1. Brett Favre – He’s heading into the season as a red light injury risk for the first time in his career, but the Vikes’ offense is ready to explode into elite fantasy territory. Football Outsiders Almanac predicts a lofty 3,500+ yards, 25 TDs and a 66% completion rate for Favre this season.
2. Kyle Orton – Expected to be the starter all along, Orton absorbed Josh McDaniels’ offense and made quick work of Chris Simms in the quarterback “competition.” After two months of drama and speculation, his top receiving weapon is vowing to attend camp on time.
Continue reading "Dynasty Rising/Falling: Quarterbacks" »
July 15, 2009
Matt Cassel's o-line might be better than he, or anyone else thinks
One of the most disturbing stats from Matt Cassel's mostly awesome starting debut was his league-high 47 sacks taken. The Patriots' offensive line is widely regarded as among the best in the league (although it's really closer to above average), so Cassel gets knocked as a sack waiting to happen. That, perhaps, could further the idea that Cassel was a one-year wonder -- a product of Randy Moss and the Patriots' quarterback-friendly system -- and that he'll struggle in his new digs.
The good news is Chiefs coach Todd Haley's system is also passer-friendly, and like New England's, very shotgun-happy. The Chiefs' offensive line is also apparently on the rise.
I'm not saying the Chiefs' line is better than New England's, but the Football Outsiders reveal that Kansas City held up better than one would've guessed during a miserable 2008 season. The unit is broken down in the Kansas City Star's Chiefs blog.
Theoretically, the Chiefs would've given up more sacks in '08 because they attempted 541 passes, their second most since the Dick Vermeil era and the ninth most in the NFL. But they cut their sacks allowed at every position save center and only left guard (Brian Waters) committed more penalties (1 in '07, 2 in '08). Their directional rushing rank also improved significantly at left tackle (Branden Albert), left guard, and right tackle (Damion McIntosh). They were a little worse at center and stayed the same at right guard.
Continue reading "Chiefs Offensive Line: Underrated?" »
Tiffany Simons and I are back on the Fantasy Fix beat with a look back at what has changed among quarterbacks in the offseason. We'll post one video-per-week for about a month, then do a ton of season previews and switch to twice a week, plus the weekly Sunday live show. (And possibly more fun stuff we're working on.)
In this one, we talk Brady, Eli, Romo, and more. (I'm going Brady first among quarterbacks if he has a good camp.) A couple notes on the video:
1. I was told after the video no more short sleeves. Probably doing me a favor since there is no reason to show off my 12-year-old girl sized arms.
2. As with a lot of taped Fix material, especially as we get people back up to speed, the content will cover material you guys mostly know. (Although there will be rankings in there.) The average Pancake Blocks reader is a more sophisticated fantasy player than our average NBC viewer.
3. The average NBC viewer, however, has been proven to enjoy a more well adjusted life. And they are better dressed.
4. Most of you didn't read past the words "Tiffany Simons" and just clicked the thing, which is fine by me.
July 14, 2009
In an early Tuesday snapshot of the Patriots' offensive backfield, nocturnal beat reporter Mike Reiss pointed out that Kevin Faulk has played more snaps than any New England tailback over the last two seasons. That, of course, hasn't led to much fantasy value. Injuries to Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris helped Faulk finish as the RB27 overall in 2008, but previous to then he hadn't been higher than RB34 since 2000.
In a mailbag posted Tuesday afternoon, the presumably coffee-chugging Reiss predicted that newly signed Fred Taylor would finish second on the team in snaps this year.
Here is a rundown of the Patriots' depth chart, along with Average Draft Position (ADP):
Continue reading "Patriots Backfield is a Muddled Mess" »
July 13, 2009
Josh Morgan is directly in the mix to be Rotoworld's top 2009 prospect
I'm in the process of constructing the "Prospects" report for the 2009 Rotoworld Draft Guide. I've made a preliminary list of potential prospects, and plan to end with a Top 25. I'm hoping to get some opinions on who should be in the top five or ten. The criteria to be a "prospect" is as follows:
1. Cannot be rookies. Rookies are already over-analyzed. We're looking for second- to fourth-year players with chances to make a significant impact in fantasy.
2. Must be 26 or younger. I loosened this by one year (last year's list excluded anyone over 25) to expand the list of players to choose from.
3. Must play a fantasy relevant position. This is obvious enough. We're not looking at offensive linemen.
4. Must have a clear opportunity to make an impact this year due to aging or injured vets in front of him, starting or key situational holes to fill, or be involved in a competition. No guys buried on their team's depth charts or unlikely to make the final roster.
5.There must be reason to believe that these guys can play. Knowing college backgrounds helps here.
Continue reading "2009 "Prospects" List for Draft Guide" »
July 12, 2009
The second magazine is a wrap. As usual, I like the second one better than the first. There is more time to fine-tune things; it's not as rushed. Thanks go out to all the awesome guys (and girl) at Beckett Media down in Dallas. The place feels like my second home after going there for six years, especially because of the awesome people there like Mike Obert, Tim Trout, Tracy Hackler, Brad Hastedt, Brett Robertson, and more. Also: we need a TopGolf in NYC!
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Last week, I went over the minor changes I made for the second magazine at quarterback, while Silva took a look at ch-ch-changes at the IDP positions. Now let's take a look at running back moves.
1. Brandon Jacobs is now ahead of LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook in non-PPR leagues. Tomlinson didn't really move, Jacobs and Westbrook just flipped spots.
It appears I'm down on LT2 and Westbrook this year more than your average analyst. You can read the magazine or draft guide for why, but essentially we hang on to our fantasy heroes too long. I still see them as second round picks, higher for Westy in PPR, but there are too many better (and cheaper) bets that aren't clearly on the decline.
This move essentially didn't pass the "What would I do?" test. Push comes to shove, I wouldn't draft Tomlinson ahead of Jacobs, so I can't rank him that way.
2. Marshawn Lynch passed Derrick Ward. I wrote an article called lessons learned, talking about things to take from previous seasons. One is that we overrate the importance of early season suspensions in drafts. Lynch will be a great player to own for the weeks that matter in fantasy. Be confident you can draft someone to fill in for him in the meantime. (Fred Jackson is a fine option.)
Continue reading "Running Back Moves: Jacobs over LT2" »
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