Dynasty Rising/Falling: Wide Receivers
Since the unveiling of our first offseason Dynasty rankings back in May, spring practices have seen several players gaining momentum while others are losing steam. Here’s a brief look at the wide receiver movement:
Rising
1. Chad Ochocinco – Ocho may have murdered your 2008 fantasy season with a lethal combination of a bad attitude, zero commitment, and Ryan Fitzpatrick's noodle arm, but there's reason to believe that his actions are speaking louder than his words this year. He at least appears to be legitimately primed for a turnaround.
2. Brandon Marshall – As Rosey pointed out earlier, Marshall has thus far avoided an NFL suspension for the 2009 season. He still holds major knucklehead potential, but it now looks like a fully healthy Marshall will be suiting up for the Broncos in Week 1 despite his drama-filled offseason.
3. Josh Morgan – A series of injuries held Morgan back as a rookie, but he's a leading breakout candidate after stealing the show in OTAs. Versed in both the "X" and the "Z" spots, Morgan will start alongside Michael Crabtree now and into the future. Beat writer Matt Maiocco, one of the best in the biz, predicts Morgan will top Niners receivers in production this year.
4. Ted Ginn – Three months ago I argued that Ginn was entering a make-or-break season;
his offseason progress bodes well for the "make" side. He was dominant at times in OTAs, and Football Outsiders as well as the local beats believe he's ready to take the next step.
5. Chris Henry – I've been calling Henry a poor man's Randy Moss since he came into the league, and Carson Palmer has seen that potential this offseason. Henry's fantasy ceiling has always made him a worthwhile roster stash, and he could finally make good on the potential now that he's working to turn his troubled personal life around.
Honorable Mention: Vincent Jackson, Santonio Holmes, Donnie Avery, Mike Walker, Chaz Schilens, Pierre Garcon, Steve Johnson, Jarett Dillard/Mike Thomas
Falling
1. Derrick Mason – The future is now for 35-year-old receivers. The only problem is that Mason's future may not involve professional football. Nobody seems to believe Mason will hang up the spikes this summer, but the fact remains that he's an aging receiver coming off a severe shoulder surgery showing little desire to suit up for the Ravens in 2009.
2. Antonio Bryant – The Bucs are moving to a run-oriented offense, and Bryant admits his numbers may drop as the new coaching staff plans to spread the ball around. Worse, last year's fantasy playoff MVP may have "not ready for prime time" rookie Josh Freeman throwing him the ball by this year's fantasy playoffs. Bryant's value has never been stable, so his owners need that present production to offset future uncertainty.
3. Deion Branch – Branch admits his knee will never be the same after undergoing a rather nebulous second surgery this offseason. With T.J. Houshmandzadeh as the go-to guy, Nate Burleson as the deep threat and rookie Deon Butler in the slot, where does that leave Branch in Greg Knapp's offense?
4. James Hardy – The first receiver off the board in many rookie drafts last summer, Hardy was already falling behind seventh-rounder Steve Johnson by November. Shortly thereafter he tore his ACL which kept him out of OTAs and will likely result in a lost season. No longer a big part of the Bills plans, Hardy may bounce around before gaining another shot at a starting role.
5. Darrius Heyward-Bey / Kenny Britt – Both first-round rookies are behind the eight ball going into training camp after suffering hamstring injuries during spring practices. DHB was being counted on as a starter opposite Chaz Schilens while Britt was expected to push veterans Nate Washington and Justin Gage for playing time. While their long-term futures remain bright, fantasy owners may miss out on a valuable opportunity to gauge their NFL potential early in the season.
Comments
hello
Posted by: Jon D. | July 20, 2009 02:52 PM
Who do we see emerging as the go to guy for the Giants?
Posted by: andimsonice | July 20, 2009 03:16 PM
So how far would you have Morgan moving up in your dynasty rankings--into tier 5, or just a few slots up in tier 6?
Posted by: Mikey | July 20, 2009 03:27 PM
Great article.
Poor Hardy, never really got much of a shot (or quickly squandered it), and now he’s potentially waiver fodder for years to come.
Whats your take on D.Williams (DET)? Do you thing his injuy and the acquisition of Northcutt spells doom for him?
I would say that the current Baltimore receivers deserve some "rising" consideration, but I just don’t see much potential there in that offense. I guess the same could be said about B.Edwards and B.Robiskie (“Rising” Honorable Mention?).
Can E.Royal get a Honable Mention, he’s been pretty hot this summer in terms of what he’s expected to do next year. Not much said about him in the news, except how he’s supposed to put up 100+ receptions. If Pierre Thomas deservers praise, I think he should for the receivers.
I think S.Smith (NYG) deserves a boost as well. His role seems to be the only one defied on that depth chart.
Also, maybe G.Jennings after solidifying his WR1 future on GB for years to come. Rodgers and him is a deadly combo.
Henry and Caldwell could possibly share that "Rising" line. They may be even at this point in terms of the depth chart.
I see a lot of questions with the rookies this year. i know its not even training camp yet, but its been really hard to gauge just how exactly these kids will do, WR's and RB's. No clear-cut, early production defined yet, making it hard on us dynasty drafters.
Maybe knock down K.Curtis some? There is a lot of potential all of a sudden on that team and he’s really just a small injury (or setback from current injury rehab) away from being knocked down considerably on the depth chart ala R.Brown. How long can he really hold off Maclin?
btw.. Wess, I did get A.Foster in the dynasty draft as my 3rd rd flier. Good call. Hopefully he can protect my Slaton commitment.
Posted by: scott c | July 20, 2009 03:42 PM
andimsonice,
Personally, I like Dominik Hixon this year and Hakeem Nicks in the future. I still believe Steve Smith's ceiling is Bobby Engram, which makes him a better NFL player than fantasy asset.
FWIW, Football Outsiders predict Hixon to blow up this season -- 81/1,051/9.
Posted by: Wess | July 20, 2009 04:10 PM
Thanks, scott. I'm with you on just about everything. I actually had Eddie Royal and Brian Robiskie in "Honorable Mention" and took them out at the last minute b/c the list was so long. I've moved Royal steadily up the blog rankings over the past month or so.
Baltimore receivers: I think they move up more in re-draft leagues than Dynasty. Clayton's the only one I'd carry on a roster.
I like Andre Caldwell too, but I prefer Henry as a stash b/c of his higher ceiling.
Gregg is a much bigger Steve Smith (NYG) fan than I am. I just don't like WRs that don't get in the end zone, and Smith is allergic to paydirt. I've noticed that you only play in PPR leagues, so I'm sure that changes things.
Good call on Kevin Curtis. Looking back on it, I should have had him in there instead of Hardy or the rookies.
I never though much of D.Williams (DET) anyway, and it doesn't look like he's going to see much time as a rookie. From what I've read, he's not the kind of player I like to waste a roster on for a couple of years while waiting for a chance at playing time.
Posted by: Wess | July 20, 2009 04:23 PM
thanks Wess. Yea, my feeling over D.Williams is slowly deteriorating. He has/had such a great opportunity there if Stafford could grow quickly. Being opposite Calvin is not a bad place to be. Could have had respectable K.Walter-like numbers, but now looks to be buried.
Gonna be interesting which rookie WR outshines Robiskie this year. So far he looks like the favorite even in somewhat of a bad offense.
Posted by: scott c | July 20, 2009 05:12 PM