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Dynasty Rising/Falling: Running Backs

Since the unveiling of our first offseason Dynasty rankings back in May, spring practices have seen several players gaining momentum while others are losing steam. Here’s a brief look at the running back movement:

Rising

1. Pierre Thomas – Ultra-effective as a runner, receiver and goal-line option, Thomas has overtaken Reggie Bush as the fantasy back to own in the Saints offense. While his coach flirted with bigger backs, Thomas spent the offseason adding muscle to grind out tough inside yardage and withstand a heavier workload. Jon Gruden's pick as the best-kept secret in the NFL has "breakout" written all over him.

2. Ray Rice – Based on his work in OTAs, Rice is now poised to lead the Ravens' three-headed attack. Already the best backfield pass-catcher, he's added noticeable bulk and improved his blocking skills. Considering McGahee's possible (probable?) 2010 exit and John Harbaugh's belief that Rice has everydown-back abilities, he could see his value skyrocket by next offseason.

3. Darren McFadden – Savvy Dynasty league owners realize that temporary patches like Justin Fargas don't keep special talents on the bench for long. Leaving the debilitating turf toe injuries behind, McFadden showed off his trademark explosiveness during spring practices. In fact, there's talk of the offense "hanging its hat" on his work in the passing game this season.

4. Felix Jones – After Felix showed off dominant playmaking ability in six rookie games, owner Jerry Jones spent the offseason insisting that the former Razorback will be a "major touch-factor" in 2009. Though he still has work to do on his receiving and blocking, it's clear that the Cowboys want to force-feed their most explosive weapon double-digit touches on a weekly basis.

5. Ronnie Brown – The addition of Pat White will reduce his Wildcat impact, but Brown is expected to see more carries in a traditional role after sharing the backfield with Ricky Williams last year. Now 19 months removed from ACL surgery, Brown reportedly looked "fit, faster than ever and like he should be the team’s featured back" during OTAs.

Honorable Mention: Jerome Harrison, Rashad Jennings, Derrick Ward, Ahmad Bradshaw, Jerious Norwood

Falling

1. Brian Westbrook – Following preseason ankle surgery at age 30, Westbrook is now at the stage where an in-season injury buries his future value as much as his present value. More of an injury risk than ever, Westbrook is so important to the Eagles' renewed Super Bowl chances that the team figures to use extreme caution in monitoring his workload.

2. Marshawn Lynch – The three-game suspension stole the headlines, but it's the presence of Fred Jackson that dents Lynch's long-term value. After signing Jackson to a four-year deal, the Bills have made it clear that Jackson's role will expand at Lynch's expense.

3. Le'Ron McClain / Willis McGahee – Rice's gain is a net loss for McClain and McGahee. McClain's ceiling will be limited as he concentrates on short-yardage duties while McGahee continues to battle knee and work ethic concerns. With a cloudy future, McGahee owners can no longer count on a starting role.

4. Thomas Jones – Jones used spring workouts to posture for a new contract, and the Jets responded by trading up to grab his eventual replacement with the first pick in the third round. With a new coaching staff in town, the 31-year-old is in danger of losing touches to Leon Washignton and goal-line work to Greene.

5. Marion Barber – The precipitous drop in Barber's efficiency highlights his overuse in the first half of 2008, and the Cowboys are now determined to work in both Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. MBIII can still be a productive fantasy asset in his "closer role," but consistency will be an issue going forward.

Comments

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Can we stop talking about Pierre Thomas? I'm not going to be able to get him in any of my drafts if everyone knows how good he is! I propose a smear campaign to keep his name hidden. REGGIE BUSH 4 LYFE!!

that new pacman jones video is crazy.. did u know andre johnson was in the crowd at the strip club too. crazy.

um... i agree with Mark P
QUIT TELLING EVERYONE ABOUT PIERRE THOMAS YOUR RUINING IT FOR THE REST OF US

Great list, but where the heck is Norwood? I've seen reports that:

1) Give Jerious more carries at the expense of Turner this year, increasing his standalone value;

2) Cite The Curse of 370 which could well bit Turner on the arse which would make Norwood fantasy gold immediately;

3) Note that Norwood will be a free agent after this year (I think). ATL can't give him a monster contract so he'll walk. NE, WAS, CIN, SEA, SD, etc. all seem like landing spots in 2010 as a starter. Daddy likey;

4) Norwood is an elite talent... maybe the fastest RB in the NFL. Great receiver, surprisingly effective in short yardage. I'd say he's on par with McFadden.

5) I just picked him up cheap which of course means I'm impartial.

Norwood lovers have been ranking him as an elite fantasy back for three years, but his production is limited by the fact that he won't be used enough on a regular basis.

All 3 coaching regimes that have come through Atlanta since Norwood has entered the league have determined that he can't run inside, won't hold up to a high carry total and has a sprinter's build instead of a running back's build.

I agree that he's climbing in value (and I should probably rank him a bit higher), but his ceiling is limited IMO. You could argue Robert Smith for his best case/perfect storm scenario, but he's probably closer to a younger Michael Bennett.

I'll throw Norwood into the Honorable Mention category. He probably belongs there with that crowd.

Horsefeathers Wess! If were going to start dissing sprinters with slight builds, then we must exclude the likes of Chris Johnson from stud RB discussion. That would be absurd of course. Norwood and Johnson are the EXACT same size: 5'11 and 200 pounds.

Hear me now! Norwood is every bit the player Chris Johnson and D Fad are... he'll get some starts this year for an injured Turner and grab a monster starting contract in 2010. I say buy low and hold.

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