Deeeep Sleeper: Justin Forsett
Marshawn Lynch's college teammate has the look of a sleeper
In an effort to keep the blog active even during a mostly dead period for NFL news, I'm digging here for a sleeper running back. No, Justin Forsett shouldn't be drafted in anything but the deepest of fantasy leagues. He might not even make the Seahawks. But he has some interesting factors working in his favor:
1. The Seahawks' rushing attempts will soar under new offensive boss Greg Knapp. Knapp has been a coordinator since 2001. His teams' ranks in run attempts: 2nd (49ers, '01), 5th (49ers, '02), 5th (49ers, '03), 5th (Falcons, '04), 3rd (Falcons, '05), 1st (Falcons, '06), 4th (Raiders, '07), 10th (Raiders, '08). **Note that Knapp was weeded out of playcalling duties last year, likely contributing to Oakland's decline in carries. Either way, Knapp's track record of run-heavy offense is unprecedented. Under Gil Haskell and Mike Holmgren, the Seahawks ranked 22nd in carries in 2008. More attempts will create more opportunities for more players.
2. Forsett's competition for carries is unspectacular, to put it mildly. Projected starter Julius Jones' 4.4 YPC average in 2008 looks encouraging on paper, but he was unable to consistently hold off pedestrian vet Maurice Morris and matched a career high in fumbles despite seeing a career low in carries. Part 2 of the expected "1-2 punch," T.J. Duckett, is on his fourth team in as many seasons and has averaged a paltry 3.5 YPC over that span, never topping 380 rushing yards in a season.
3. Forsett is already familiar with the system, having played in a zone-blocking scheme just like Knapp's at Cal-Berkley, where Forsett shared the Bears' backfield with Marshawn Lynch. After Lynch moved on in 2007, Forsett showed he could carry a heavy workload at the college level, finishing second to only Jonathan Stewart in the Pac-Ten with 1,546 yards on 305 carries (5.1 YPC) and 15 touchdowns. Coach Jeff Tedford doesn't throw to his runners very often, but Forsett caught 22 passes that year and may already be the best pass-catching back on Seattle's roster.
4. Knapp won't hold Forsett's marginal size and speed against him, unlike the GMs that let Forsett slip to the seventh round in the 2008 NFL Draft. Forsett goes only 5'8/194 and has 4.6 wheels. But as is the case with most zone-blocking gurus, Knapp is more concerned with a runner's ability to cut and go than his home run speed. Forsett profiles somewhat similarly to Warrick Dunn (5'9/180), who averaged 1,221 yards and six TDs on 277 carries (4.4 YPC) per year in three seasons under Knapp.
5. Forsett is going to have a spot on the weekly game-day roster, even as the team's third tailback, because he's the Seahawks' most reliable punt returner. That means if Jones or Duckett struggles or gets injured in a game, Forsett is next in line for carries. Opportunity is essential, and if Forsett capitalizes when he gets one Knapp won't hesitate to give him more in the future.
Justin Forsett is not a great talent -- it's why there were 232 players drafted ahead of him two Aprils ago. But neither was Justin Fargas in Oakland or Kevan Barlow in San Francisco. Knapp, though, was able to eek production out of them because of his system. Forsett is someone to keep an eye on in training camp and the preseason. It's hard to believe Julius Jones is a significantly better option.
Comments
Good analysis here Evan. Deeeep Sleepers are great, when you've got the room for them especially in a deep dynasty leagues. Forsett is about as deep as you can go into an RB depth chart and still find any value. I like the way Forsett can fit into a one-cut blocking scheme. His size shouldn't count too much against him in Seattle, but you said it right - opportunity is essential.
Posted by: BeastOrBust | July 23, 2009 02:43 PM
This is the one truly "open" backfield in the league. JJ gets no respect. Duckett is an after thought or short yardage back. I think they almost have to take a high rd RB pick at next years draft. Which ever back that is, it will be a great landing spot for him. I think your likely to see the next dynasty 1st pick of 2010 here, at RB.
Posted by: scott c | July 23, 2009 03:11 PM
Evan, its funny you mentioned this. I was actually "digging" myself during recent dynasty drafts looking for a good RB flier with a good chance for opportunity. I could only really come up with Forsett and D.Moore, their late rd rookie. I was hoping on Moore being the Slaton of this year, but after seing him on film, I doubt he'll even make the team. Lol. I dont see a lot of potential in him, which leads me more, like you, to Forsett. Still not greatly sold on him either, which leads to my first comment above.
Posted by: scott c | July 23, 2009 03:15 PM
I think Jerome Harrison in CLE is a better bet
Posted by: Matt | July 23, 2009 04:05 PM
Interesting stuff and well supported as always. But if this isn't an indictment of Jim Mora's pro player evaluation abilities, I don't know what is.
Julius Jones is going to asked to be the lead horse in a top 5 (attempts) rushing attack? And TJ Duckett will be the "Thunder" part of that scheme? Oh brother. Both are lucky they are on an NFL roster frankly. I can't believe ANYONE would hand JJ a starting job at this point... haven't they watched film of the guy the last 3 years?!
As bad as that is, a 7th rounder who is undersized and not very fast is their developmental RB for the future? Uhhhggggg.
But hey, if I'm sitting in the 19th round in my dynasty league and he's still there, I guess I'll take a flier on Forsett. If I drink enough on draft night (a lock there), maybe I can convince myself his name starts with the letter "D".
Posted by: stx_jay | July 23, 2009 05:33 PM
Slow news day.....
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