Chiefs Offensive Line: Underrated?
Matt Cassel's o-line might be better than he, or anyone else thinks
One of the most disturbing stats from Matt Cassel's mostly awesome starting debut was his league-high 47 sacks taken. The Patriots' offensive line is widely regarded as among the best in the league (although it's really closer to above average), so Cassel gets knocked as a sack waiting to happen. That, perhaps, could further the idea that Cassel was a one-year wonder -- a product of Randy Moss and the Patriots' quarterback-friendly system -- and that he'll struggle in his new digs.
The good news is Chiefs coach Todd Haley's system is also passer-friendly, and like New England's, very shotgun-happy. The Chiefs' offensive line is also apparently on the rise.
I'm not saying the Chiefs' line is better than New England's, but the Football Outsiders reveal that Kansas City held up better than one would've guessed during a miserable 2008 season. The unit is broken down in the Kansas City Star's Chiefs blog.
Theoretically, the Chiefs would've given up more sacks in '08 because they attempted 541 passes, their second most since the Dick Vermeil era and the ninth most in the NFL. But they cut their sacks allowed at every position save center and only left guard (Brian Waters) committed more penalties (1 in '07, 2 in '08). Their directional rushing rank also improved significantly at left tackle (Branden Albert), left guard, and right tackle (Damion McIntosh). They were a little worse at center and stayed the same at right guard.
The Chiefs have upgraded from C Rudy Niswanger to Eric Ghiaciuc, a 28-year-old 42-game starter. The new right guard is ex-Chargers stalwart Mike Goff. A guard at Virginia, the 24-year-old Albert is likely to improve drastically in his second season at left tackle since high school. The much-maligned McIntosh is way more effective than he's given credit for, at least according to the Outsiders. It doesn't hurt that Haley also has a history of "coaching up" offensive lines. The Cards' front five suddenly got much better when Haley took over as coordinator in 2007. (Russ Grimm didn't hurt, either.)
The receiver corps is a downgrade for Cassel. He isn't going to win 11 games or finish as the fantasy QB8 again. But while projecting Cassel to throw the third-most passes in the league (behind only Drew Brees and Tom Brady), we still confidently rank him as one of the most desirable QB2s in fantasy football. He'll be a high-quality matchup play by midseason, when he's fully comfortable in Haley's offense. That's also when Kansas City's schedule gets a whole lot easier.
Comments
I'd be a lot more comfortable picking him if the Chiefs still had Gonzales. Hopefully for his future owners, Engram still has something left.
He will get rushing yards and a lot of attempts in a weak division. You could do worse if you don't end up with one of the elite quarterbacks.
I don't have a very good feel for where he'll be drafted, but for the right price he could be a good value and solid contributor.
Posted by: Fredex | July 15, 2009 06:57 PM
Fredex -
Cassel's current ADP is 101, or right at the start of the 11th round in 10-team drafts. He's being drafted as the QB14, right ahead of Eli Manning and Matt Hasselbeck.
You can find the latest ADP information here:
http://www.rotoworld.com/premium/draftguide/football/ADP.aspx
Posted by: evan | July 15, 2009 07:29 PM
Most of Cassel's sacks came in the first half of the season. Midway through the season, he settled down and the Patriots offense took off.
Posted by: Dan | July 15, 2009 11:48 PM
As a former Kansas Citian and current Arizonan, I follow the Chiefs and Cardinals more closely than any other teams. I was elated with the signing of Haley, and I think both his and Cassel's presence in KC is great long term. For '08, I have a hard time seeing much value. Aside from Bowe (whom you can argue is overrated based on excruciating efficiency numbers), the Chiefs WRs are atrocious.
More importantly, the Chiefs schedule is brutal. One of the under-emphasized aspects of Herm's tenure was the fact that the Chiefs played one of the NFL's easiest schedules over the past 32 games where they went 6-26. This season it's incredibly difficult and doesn't really offer any opportunity until the final 4 weeks of the fantasy season.
By weeks 13-16, you may have an opportunity to pick Cassel up on Waivers since his results will probably have been terrible. At that point, he'd represent a great value except for the weather. Almost every game I've attended at Arrowhead has been blisteringly cold. Many people may not realize it, but in December the KC weather is often frigid and presents one of the NFL's more difficult passing environments.
I agree with Rotoworld's passing attempts prediction (it's also going to be the saving grace for Kyle Orton who faces almost the exact same situation as Cassel with the slight improvement of having 2 legitimate receivers). Still, you need the right league format to take advantage, preferably one that rewards a lot of points for yardage but doesn't give 6 points for passing TDs and doesn't take away for interceptions.
Hopefully the optimism about the Chiefs OL is well-founded, but with a brutal schedule, lousy runners, pedestrian receivers, and no TE, it probably won't make any difference until at least 2010.
Posted by: The Dude Abides | July 16, 2009 01:51 AM
"The Chiefs have upgraded from C Rudy Niswanger to Eric Ghiaciuc, a 28-year-old 42-game starter."
The fact that Eric Ghiaciuc can ever be considered an upgrade is enough to make me sick to my stomach.
Posted by: Davie Ricky | July 16, 2009 08:51 AM
Eric Ghiaciuc, no lie, is the worst center I've ever seen. He almost got Carson Palmer killed on a weekly basis.
Mike Goff is running on fumes.
Posted by: Wess | July 16, 2009 08:51 AM
Wess - then apparently you haven't seen Rudy Niswanger.
Dude - The Kansas City schedule is not "brutal" through Week 13. At least in terms of passing defenses (which is what we're most concerned with here considering the guy in the picture up top), it becomes significantly easier at the Week 7 mark. At San Diego, which should be improved on the corners but is playing with fire as it contemplates starting SS Kevin Ellison, a rookie with 4.8 speed. It will help if Merriman can still run, but it's more likely that the Bolts will remain near the lower half to bottom of the ranks after finishing 31st in the NFL last season.
Then the Chiefs get a bye to reflect after their "brutal" start to the season (assuming their opponents aren't decimated by injuries, which as we know is always quite possible). It's then on to a pretty favorable second half:
Week 9: at Jacksonville Jaguars (24th in PASS D)
Week 10: at Oakland Raiders (10th in PASS D)
Week 11: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (1st in PASS D)
Week 12: vs. San Diego Chargers (31st in PASS D)
Week 13: vs. Denver Broncos (26th in PASS D)
Week 14: vs. Buffalo Bills (13th in PASS D)
Week 15: vs. Cleveland Browns (14th in PASS D)
Week 16: at Cincinnati Bengals (15th in PASS D)
Week 17: at Denver Broncos (26th in PASS D)
Also, I have have been to Arrowhead late in the year. Sure, it gets cold. But apparently that did not affect Tyler Thigpen, who was outscored in fantasy by only Drew Brees at the quarterback position from Week 8 on last season. The QB2 overall during that span.
Posted by: evan | July 16, 2009 09:37 AM