ADP's Most Undervalued/Overvalued
Chris Wesseling reported on eight of the most undervalued fantasy players in late June. With days separating us from the start of training camp, here's an updated look at the "Criminally Undervalued and Overvalued" as of July 21.
OVERVALUED:
1. DeAngelo Williams - Rated as a value no earlier than the late second round by Rotoworld's Draft Guide projections, the No. 1 fantasy back from 2008 currently holds an ADP of 7.6 overall. For those new to Average Draft Position, that means he's going near the middle of the first round in 12- and 14-team leagues and at the end of round one in 10-team formats. We anticipate Jonathan Stewart's role expanding and Williams' touch total dropping from 299 to 250. D-Willy is also unlikely to repeat his 20 touchdowns. We still like him for double digits, but Williams is clearly one of the most hotly debated fantasy picks heading to the heart of draft season.
2. Wes Welker - As the league leader in catches since 2006, Welker is far more desirable in points-per-reception leagues. These ADP ranks are for non-PPR, and Welker surprisingly holds an ADP of 30.7 (mid-third round in 12-team leagues). Welker remains a key cog in New England's offense, but we don't think he'll continue to outdo Randy Moss in targets (Welker got 24 more last year), and Tom Brady's accuracy in the short passing game (Welker's bread and butter) is a concern coming off a torn ACL and MCL. We'd rather have Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall, Terrell Owens, or Braylon Edwards as our WR2. At least in non-PPR.
3. T.J. Houshmandzadeh - While we consider him the 71st best fantasy player (a late sixth-round pick in the 12-team format), Housh is going 34th overall. In other words, no one going by Rotoworld's ranks is gonna get him. Houshmandzadeh, going on 32, is entering a rushing-friendly Seahawks offense under running guru Greg Knapp where he'll compete for targets over the middle with John Carlson and explosive rookie slot man Deon Butler. Housh has averaged just 4.5 touchdowns over the last two seasons, and his catch count is certain to fall. Since Housh isn't a big-play receiver, his yards will likely also tumble.
UNDERVALUED:
1. Kevin Smith - There were natural concerns about how Smith would hold up initially after an amazing 450-carry season at Central Florida, but he played a full schedule and held off all the competition Detroit brought in. Smith's 4.1 yards-per-carry average was impressive considering the atrocious game plans and production of since-axed coordinator Jim Colletto. New offensive boss Scott Linehan used a feature-back system in his last stop (St. Louis, Steven Jackson) and Smith has an every-down back skill set (39 catches as a rookie). Still, he's often available in the early fourth round of 12-team drafts. We have him as the 24th overall player and RB15. The Lions' offense is certain to improve.
2. Aaron Rodgers - Rodgers heads up tier two of our quarterback rankings. Highly aggressive and set to benefit from the improvement of youngsters Greg Jennings (26), Jordy Nelson (24), and Jermichael Finley (22), and the healthy return of James Jones (25), Rodgers has the situation to repeat last year's QB3 overall finish. Near inevitable improvement from Green Bay's defense will also give Rodgers more chances. His current ADP is the QB7, and he's usually available at the middle of round five in 10-team drafts.
3. Braylon Edwards - A solid fourth-round fantasy pick and the WR13 overall according to our projections, Edwards is the opposite of Welker as a better bet in non-PPR formats. Edwards, though, has the potential to outperform PPR expectations because he's clearly Cleveland's No. 1 option. Also, there is a notion out there that Edwards had the NFL's worst hands last season. Brandon Marshall actually led the league with 18 dropped balls; Edwards was second with 14; Dwayne Bowe was third (12). There's another fallacy that projected Browns starter Brady Quinn is a dink-and-dunk passer. Quinn might've been used like one by Rob Chudzinski in three starts last year, but he certainly wasn't at Notre Dame (12.64 yards per completion in his last two seasons). If Quinn can recapture his college deep-ball accuracy, Edwards will be the biggest beneficiary.
Comments
Kevin Smith was under the radar all of last season. I think he might have been on the same level as Chris Johnson or Steve Slaton if he wasn't on the gawd-awful Lions.
Posted by: andimsonice | July 21, 2009 02:38 PM
Evan, I mostly agree with what you've got written here. my thoughts on Braylon Edwards in 2009 side with a little more caution. The QB situation is bad in Cle., and they are a pretty bad team, but there is something to be said for the fact that after last seasons performance, many will forget that Edwards is still a stud. Take advantage of a falling ADP.
Even with 80% of the touches Williams received in 2008, he's still in line to put up RB1 type numbers. J. Stew is the elite talent in that backfield though.
Aaron Rodgers is also a stud, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him go down with injury this year.
I would rather have DeSean Jackson or Eddie Royal than Wes Welker, even if Brady is back.
Housh could shape up to be the classic case of taking an established #2 WR and putting him on a roster to be the #1. It doesn't work.
Posted by: BeastOrBust | July 21, 2009 02:46 PM
The guy Brady's ACL surgery has me more worried about than Welker is Moss.
Every QB coming off of ACL surgery struggles on the deep ball accuracy the next year, it seems.
Posted by: Fredex | July 21, 2009 04:01 PM
All three undervalued are all really great picks. K.Smith is my M.Forte of '09 as I think his rec. will go up with no proven 3rd down back and a possibility of having a check-down rookie QB by week 1. A major target in my drafts. Dynasty is a lil shakier but he is a definate "Buy" in my book. Might be the only time to get him this undervalued.
Rogers can only get better being in a high powered passing offense and having outstanding options. He's like T.Brady this offseason w/o any of the attention (or hype) geared his way. This spells significant draft value and certain fantasy gold. Definately a franchise Quarterback.
Braylon has to improve on last year. The overall offense could remain weak, but hes got all the targets in the world. He could put up very similar number to D.Bowe or B.Marshall by years end, with better draft value. Ppl are giving him away in dynasty circles. I'd Buy.
Posted by: scott c | July 21, 2009 04:05 PM
Hey Evan,
Where is the Rotoworld Mock Draft Link? I am ready to start practicing. Thanks.
Posted by: THE BLUEPRINT | July 21, 2009 04:07 PM
Raw "drops" numbers mean nothing without the denominator. Percentage of targets dropped:
Bowe: 12/157 = 7.6%
Marshall: 18/181 = 9.9%
Edwards: 14/138 = 10.1%
It's close, but Edwards "wins" this one.
Posted by: Enoch | July 21, 2009 04:14 PM
And Marcedes Lewis...
11/72 = 15.2 %
... blows them all away.
Posted by: evan | July 21, 2009 04:26 PM