2009 "Prospects" List for Draft Guide
Josh Morgan is directly in the mix to be Rotoworld's top 2009 prospect
I'm in the process of constructing the "Prospects" report for the 2009 Rotoworld Draft Guide. I've made a preliminary list of potential prospects, and plan to end with a Top 25. I'm hoping to get some opinions on who should be in the top five or ten. The criteria to be a "prospect" is as follows:
1. Cannot be rookies. Rookies are already over-analyzed. We're looking for second- to fourth-year players with chances to make a significant impact in fantasy.
2. Must be 26 or younger. I loosened this by one year (last year's list excluded anyone over 25) to expand the list of players to choose from.
3. Must play a fantasy relevant position. This is obvious enough. We're not looking at offensive linemen.
4. Must have a clear opportunity to make an impact this year due to aging or injured vets in front of him, starting or key situational holes to fill, or be involved in a competition. No guys buried on their team's depth charts or unlikely to make the final roster.
5.There must be reason to believe that these guys can play. Knowing college backgrounds helps here.
6. Cannot have extensive starting experience or be an established player in the league. If the player has started games before, must have been in only a "spot" capacity. Eight career starts is a good ceiling in most cases, although we can be lenient here.
7. Can't be former first- or second-round picks. We're not looking at guys from which big things are already expected. Ray Rice, Chad Henne, Rashard Mendenhall, and Devin Thomas do not qualify as prospects.
I previously pointed out some of last year's hits ((Pierre Thomas, Steve Breaston, Tyler Thigpen, Kevin Boss), misses (Laurent Robinson, Brian Calhoun, Scott Chandler), and others that flirted with fantasy value (Chansi Stuckey, Miles Austin, Jason Hill). We got off to a pretty good start and hopefully it will continue.
The Prospects will be ranked based on talent, with opportunity weighed in heavily.
To give you some idea of the type of players we're looking at, here are some of my top candidates so far:
Jaguars WR Mike Walker
Eagles TE Brent Celek
Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles
Raiders WR Chaz Schilens
Rams RB Kenneth Darby
Redskins QB Colt Brennan
Saints WR Adrian Arrington
Seahawks RB Justin Forsett
Bills WR Steve Johnson
Packers TE Jermichael Finley
Colts WR Pierre Garcon
Bears WR Earl Bennett
Comments
J. Hill and J. Morgan from the 49ers are primed to explode, both have been good in short bursts and have now had ample time to learn and develop. With defenses keying on Gore and Crabtree, Hill and Morgan are going to have plenty of single coverage and room to make big plays.
Posted by: John | July 14, 2009 03:40 PM
Evan good list. The player on it I like best is Earl Bennett. Being freinds with Cutler from his College days will help. I remember a report saying Cutler wanted Denver to draft Bennett. Cutler will want him to be his go to guy in Chicago.
In Oak I like Johny Lee Higgins a little better than Chaz Schelins. Higgins had one TD in each of his last three games in 08. That's showing good momentum to start his 3rd year at WR. Side note, of the 23 catches Higgins had last year 13 of them were for first downs. This shows the QB has some trust in Higgins.
I like the comment earlier someone had about Bal. WR. and the fact Mason is retiring. Heres the thing, Cam as an OC has always had top end production with his system. Add the fact Flacco has great touch on his deep ball, it gives Bal. WR group value. I think Cam will open it up a little more. So how about Marcus Smith, or Yamon Figurs.
Bulger is a good QB if he can keep off his back, so with a little O-line protection the Rams WR's may have some value. Avery don't qualify for this list but Kennan Burton and Laurant Robinson do. I like Robinson over Burton. Maybe Robinson can turn on his 3rd year magic. If he can stay healthy, and still has his 4.3 speed.
My supper long shot is Danny Ware. The reports say he came into camp working hard on the field and getting his timing down with Eli on passing routs out of the backfield. With the injury history in front of him he may be a hot free agent pick up.
Posted by: Shannon | July 14, 2009 04:15 PM
No new names but some critical info/opinion.
Top WR prospects
J. Morgan - Will always be on the field for S. Hill at X,Y or Z. Which is invaluable in what is 'expected' to be a conservative offense.
M. Walker - Jags cut almost their entire WR core to clear a path for him and signed a great mentor as well.
M. Smith - 2009 Colston*, Clayton, Williams and Heap are old news/can't stay healthy. He's a big boy that Flacco can feel comfortable throwing to between the hashes.*If Mason is really retiring*
E. Bennett - Cutler loves him and has a reputation for locking on and peppering a specific WR. Best WR on the team, Hester has more raw talent though. College teammate of Cutler and the coaches want to see him succeed.
Posted by: Paul | July 14, 2009 04:22 PM
I like the Aundrae Allison (Vikings) pick I saw earlier in the comments. He's got nice speed and did well returning kicks/punts a couple years ago. If Sydney Rice keeps getting hurt and Harvin doesn't get consistent starts, Allison has a good chance to play position or slot.
Someone else mentioned Mewelde Moore, but I think he's disqualified from the list for having too many starts in his career.
Posted by: peter | July 14, 2009 04:24 PM
allison still has to get by b.ward first.
Posted by: scott c | July 14, 2009 04:35 PM
allison still has to get by b.wade first.
Posted by: scott c | July 14, 2009 04:36 PM
My concern about Garcon is that there is a limited production ceiling. Wayne, Clark, Gonzalez and RBs constitute a lot of competition for targets. He has a good chance of being a strong WR3 for your fantasy team, but seemingly no chance to be a difference maker this year.
Brennan isn't in a competition for this year. A good pre-season means he'll get an audition for 2010 if WAS crumbles midway through this season.
Evan's original proposition was who should be in the top 5 or 10. These guys seem to me be have the best chance of making a usable impact this year:
Jamaal Charles
Michael Bush
Schilens
Earl Bennett
Celek
Mike Walker
Finley
Garcon, ends my list because he's my definition of the end of marginal utility.
Posted by: Rob | July 14, 2009 06:09 PM