2009 "Prospects" List for Draft Guide
Josh Morgan is directly in the mix to be Rotoworld's top 2009 prospect
I'm in the process of constructing the "Prospects" report for the 2009 Rotoworld Draft Guide. I've made a preliminary list of potential prospects, and plan to end with a Top 25. I'm hoping to get some opinions on who should be in the top five or ten. The criteria to be a "prospect" is as follows:
1. Cannot be rookies. Rookies are already over-analyzed. We're looking for second- to fourth-year players with chances to make a significant impact in fantasy.
2. Must be 26 or younger. I loosened this by one year (last year's list excluded anyone over 25) to expand the list of players to choose from.
3. Must play a fantasy relevant position. This is obvious enough. We're not looking at offensive linemen.
4. Must have a clear opportunity to make an impact this year due to aging or injured vets in front of him, starting or key situational holes to fill, or be involved in a competition. No guys buried on their team's depth charts or unlikely to make the final roster.
5.There must be reason to believe that these guys can play. Knowing college backgrounds helps here.
6. Cannot have extensive starting experience or be an established player in the league. If the player has started games before, must have been in only a "spot" capacity. Eight career starts is a good ceiling in most cases, although we can be lenient here.
7. Can't be former first- or second-round picks. We're not looking at guys from which big things are already expected. Ray Rice, Chad Henne, Rashard Mendenhall, and Devin Thomas do not qualify as prospects.
I previously pointed out some of last year's hits ((Pierre Thomas, Steve Breaston, Tyler Thigpen, Kevin Boss), misses (Laurent Robinson, Brian Calhoun, Scott Chandler), and others that flirted with fantasy value (Chansi Stuckey, Miles Austin, Jason Hill). We got off to a pretty good start and hopefully it will continue.
The Prospects will be ranked based on talent, with opportunity weighed in heavily.
To give you some idea of the type of players we're looking at, here are some of my top candidates so far:
Jaguars WR Mike Walker
Eagles TE Brent Celek
Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles
Raiders WR Chaz Schilens
Rams RB Kenneth Darby
Redskins QB Colt Brennan
Saints WR Adrian Arrington
Seahawks RB Justin Forsett
Bills WR Steve Johnson
Packers TE Jermichael Finley
Colts WR Pierre Garcon
Bears WR Earl Bennett
Comments
Earl that is. Martellus was second (61st), so he won't qualify.
Posted by: evan | July 14, 2009 11:03 AM
As previously mentioned, I think Jordy Nelson is a great prospect. He's a catching machine from Kansas State. I can see him being a Wes Welker type in the Packers offense in the next year or two, probably after Donald Driver moves on.
Posted by: Pac_Eddy | July 14, 2009 12:03 PM
Some of the top of my head are:
49ers WR Josh Morgan
Jaguars WR Mike Walker
Bills RB Fred Jackson
Dolphins WR Davone Bess
Eagles TE Brent Celek
Cowboys WR Miles Austin
Colts WR Pierre Garcon
Browns RB Jarome Harrison
Rams WR Keenan Burton
Bengals WR Andre Caldwell
Raiders WR Chaz Schilens
Cowboys RB Tashard Choice
Bears WR Earl Bennett
Jets WR David Clowney
Packers WR James Jones
Ravens WR Marcus Smith
Falcons WR Harry Douglas
Giants WR Mario Manningham
Bills WR Steve Johnson
Seahawks RB Justin Forsett
Redskins QB Colt Brennan
Posted by: scott c | July 14, 2009 12:08 PM
i guess i could go with "why" for each..
Morgan - pretty self explanitory. slam dunk for #1 prospect imo.
Walker - same. close second.
Jackson - top RB prospect even with Lynch. Similar to
Choice in being blocked by better talent, but skills are there.
Bess - top 3-5 WR prospect. has right mix of opportunity and skills to shine.
Celek - very similar to last year's K.Boss, without the hype.
Austin - I think we already coverd this. would rank higher but, like E.Bennett, hasnt done much yet, and isnt listed as a starter yet either.
Garcon - I personally would rank him higher, but this is prob the lowest he should be ranked. too much potential w/o Harrison there and Gonzo or Wayne could go down, meaning big value. I would compare his sort of to Hixon last year.
Harrison - flashed ability and depth chart is open. Lewis is on the cusp of finished.
Burton - Him or L.Robinson could go here but Burton is the starter and should remain so. prob wont put up great numbers - ever - but is still a starting wr so that goes as something.
Caldwell - making the most buzz out of the non-ocho bengles receivers. some talent but not overwhelming. still could force his way into playing time is good summer.
Schilens - is a starter, albeit on the raiders. i could never see him as a 1000yrd wr but still worth something.
Choice - blocked by superior talent for years to come, but skills are w/o question. reminds me of P.Thomas a couple years ago. Dont be suprised if Gregg jumps onboard his hype traing if any injury to MBIII or F.Jones.
Bennett - need to see more out of him but no one has a better opportunity on this list than him (Great QB, no compitition, decent skills, OC is hyping him up). still, sounds too good to be true. want to see him in preseason first before investing much. could be a dud.
Clowney - reminds me of a Demetrius Williams or Mike Walker of couple years ago. talent is there but may never be fully healthy or able to put it all togeather.
Jones - good talent and just needs to remain healthy to become heir apperant. a (very) poor mans A.Gonzales circa '08.
Smith - Talent is there. Opportunity is now there and only needs to beat out Clayton and D.Williams for permanant starting role. could shoot up the list and be a real sleeper here if he plays well in preseason.
Douglas - probably one of the better talents on the list, but not sure if purely a slot guy. will be interesting on the depth chart if M.Jenkins goes down. otherwise may have to wait a year.
Manningham - blocked by big talents but if he shows he can play...
Johnson - very underraded. a poor mans w.welker while he was in Mia in '06. has talent but may have to wait until either TO leaves or something else.
Forsett - great opportunity on a very run oriented offense, but skills might not be there. Question: would u take a flier on him or D.Moore (R) as unseating J.Jones? I dont thing anyone on the RB depth chart will last beyond this season. they almost have to draft RB next year.
Brennan - good combination of opportunity and talent. could prove a lot with solid preseason for second year in a row.
Posted by: scott c | July 14, 2009 12:41 PM
IMO, it should take more than "a decent chance to grab 30 balls" to be on the final list. Otherwise, you might as well dedicate an entire publication to the topic.
A fantastic topic it is, though, and (as usual) there's great insight being offered to justify the names tossed out.
Posted by: Juggs | July 14, 2009 01:16 PM
I'm a little suprised there isn't any love for Michael Bush. Before his college injury, wasn't he THE prospect everyone was talking about? (As I recall, he was AP before AP came along.)
I don't know if he gets 7 checks from your list, but he's a beast in a running offense (with no QB to speak of) with really only an over-rated, chicken-legged, injury-waiting-to-happen future bust-to-be ahead of him on the depth chart.
Posted by: Juggs | July 14, 2009 01:25 PM
yea michael bush def needs to be included. too much talent to not be. and he really on is a trade or injury away from dominating carries/production.
Posted by: scott c | July 14, 2009 02:24 PM