2009 "Prospects" List for Draft Guide
Josh Morgan is directly in the mix to be Rotoworld's top 2009 prospect
I'm in the process of constructing the "Prospects" report for the 2009 Rotoworld Draft Guide. I've made a preliminary list of potential prospects, and plan to end with a Top 25. I'm hoping to get some opinions on who should be in the top five or ten. The criteria to be a "prospect" is as follows:
1. Cannot be rookies. Rookies are already over-analyzed. We're looking for second- to fourth-year players with chances to make a significant impact in fantasy.
2. Must be 26 or younger. I loosened this by one year (last year's list excluded anyone over 25) to expand the list of players to choose from.
3. Must play a fantasy relevant position. This is obvious enough. We're not looking at offensive linemen.
4. Must have a clear opportunity to make an impact this year due to aging or injured vets in front of him, starting or key situational holes to fill, or be involved in a competition. No guys buried on their team's depth charts or unlikely to make the final roster.
5.There must be reason to believe that these guys can play. Knowing college backgrounds helps here.
6. Cannot have extensive starting experience or be an established player in the league. If the player has started games before, must have been in only a "spot" capacity. Eight career starts is a good ceiling in most cases, although we can be lenient here.
7. Can't be former first- or second-round picks. We're not looking at guys from which big things are already expected. Ray Rice, Chad Henne, Rashard Mendenhall, and Devin Thomas do not qualify as prospects.
I previously pointed out some of last year's hits ((Pierre Thomas, Steve Breaston, Tyler Thigpen, Kevin Boss), misses (Laurent Robinson, Brian Calhoun, Scott Chandler), and others that flirted with fantasy value (Chansi Stuckey, Miles Austin, Jason Hill). We got off to a pretty good start and hopefully it will continue.
The Prospects will be ranked based on talent, with opportunity weighed in heavily.
To give you some idea of the type of players we're looking at, here are some of my top candidates so far:
Jaguars WR Mike Walker
Eagles TE Brent Celek
Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles
Raiders WR Chaz Schilens
Rams RB Kenneth Darby
Redskins QB Colt Brennan
Saints WR Adrian Arrington
Seahawks RB Justin Forsett
Bills WR Steve Johnson
Packers TE Jermichael Finley
Colts WR Pierre Garcon
Bears WR Earl Bennett
Comments
There's a decent buzz about Saints receiver Robert Meacham. Take this for what it's worth, but he's been lights out in practice, and since he was a first rounder, there's a perceived need to play him so he doesn't seem a complete bust.
Devery Henderson is capable of making great catches for big yards, but he drops a lot of passes. If he keeps up the butterfingers routine, don't be surprised to see Meacham and Arrington compete for the third receiver spot, and don't be surprised if Meacham gets the nod. A three receiver on this offense will get a bunch of catches.
Plus, it's do or die for Meacham.
Posted by: Brian Moore | July 13, 2009 07:51 PM
Here are some other guys I would add to the list:
Patrick Cobbs, RB, Dolphins - He barely passes the 26 year old rule and is virtually here by default. But with a 5.5 ypc average last season and two HUGE injury risks ahead of him on the depth chart, Cobbs is worth keeping an eye on, "just in case".
David Clowney, WR, Jets - Remember the pre-season numbers he put up last season before getting injured? With Coles gone, its pretty much fair game behind Cotchery for the Jets #2 WR spot. I have a hunch that Keller might not get as many receptions as everyone is projecting, meaning Clowney has a decent chance to grab 30 balls and a few touchdowns.
Troy Smith, QB, Ravens - Definitley the definition of a prospect. He doesn't have enough career stats to warrant any type of prediction, but he does have a Heisman trophy and a desperate enough offense in Baltimore that may have to get him on the field. Wildcat, anyone?
Matt Spaeth, TE, Steelers - Spaeth is like Cobbs (above) on this list because he would only become fantasy relevant with an injury to Heath Miller. But Spaeth made things interesting with back to back six catch, 50+ yard Weeks 10 and 11 last year. Spaeth is enough of a Miller clone that he could fill in nicely if needed.
David Anderson, WR, Texans - Potentially the slot receiver in one of the NFL's hottest offenses, Anderson needs to beat out Andre Davis before getting any consideration. But if he does, the former Colorado State Ram might be able to pull off numbers in the 40 catch, five TD range. That might be optimistic, but fantasy owners need optimism when it comes to "prospects".
Tom Santi, TE, Colts - Right now Santi is listed 4th on the Colts depth chart, but keep in mind he caught 10 balls and a TD in only four games last season. He would need another injury to Dallas Clark, but put him on your "Back-up TEs to watch" list next to Spaeth. I'll admit, this one is a stretch.
Miles Austin, Sam Hurd, WRs, Cowboys - Most people are on the Austin bandwagon, but dont write off Hurd. He was good for 314 yards and a TD in 2007 before going on injured reserve last season. If one of these guys can find a legit role in the Dallas offense, they definitley deserve a spot on your team.
Harry Douglas, WR, Falcons - The electrifying Douglas had some terrific plays for Atlanta last season, but could lose touches with Tony Gonzalez in the passing mix. Still, the Falcons know how to get Douglas the ball (he had a receiving TD, rushing TD, and return TD over the final six weeks of the season). He is probably the 6th option in the Falcons offense, but made enough plays to keep himself in fantasy thoughts.
So, there ya go. These guys might be a little lower on a "Prospect List" because I tried to skip some of the more obvious names. I didnt look up what round they were drafted in, so a few might be breaking Rule #7. Davone Bess and Nate Washington are two names to consider more seriously, but I consider them too well known at this point.
Enjoy!
Posted by: jrb5151 | July 13, 2009 09:05 PM
jrb5151 -
great job dude, you know your stuff.
Posted by: evan | July 13, 2009 09:16 PM
Seriously... holy crap.
I knew I had let myself get behind in my research this year, but you guys are light years ahead of me!
Posted by: Matt Dibble | July 14, 2009 12:06 AM
Jermichael Finley - totally agree here. The real breakout might be another year away, but I expect him to replace Lee as the preferred receiving TE by midseason this year.
Martellus Bennett - can't recall his draft round, but he should qualify regardless. Doesn't have Finley's opportunity, but might be more talented.
Chris Henry & Andre Caldwell - one of the two almost surely will break out this year. Henry is more talented, Caldwell more disciplined.
Early Doucet - if Boldin is traded (unlikely, I know) his value skyrockets as the #3 WR in Arizona. A la Breaston a year ago.
Jerome Harrison - may not fit the exact criteria, but certainly fits the category.
Mewelde Moore - ditto.
Chad Henne - yes he was a 2nd round pick, but he has to be post hype now (if there ever was any). Could replace Pennington this year if he or the team falters.
Posted by: Stephen | July 14, 2009 02:41 AM
Earl Bennett - agree he belongs as well, but wasn't he a 2nd round pick?
Posted by: Stephen | July 14, 2009 02:46 AM
Bennett was third round, 70th overall.
Posted by: evan | July 14, 2009 11:01 AM