2009 "Prospects" List for Draft Guide
Josh Morgan is directly in the mix to be Rotoworld's top 2009 prospect
I'm in the process of constructing the "Prospects" report for the 2009 Rotoworld Draft Guide. I've made a preliminary list of potential prospects, and plan to end with a Top 25. I'm hoping to get some opinions on who should be in the top five or ten. The criteria to be a "prospect" is as follows:
1. Cannot be rookies. Rookies are already over-analyzed. We're looking for second- to fourth-year players with chances to make a significant impact in fantasy.
2. Must be 26 or younger. I loosened this by one year (last year's list excluded anyone over 25) to expand the list of players to choose from.
3. Must play a fantasy relevant position. This is obvious enough. We're not looking at offensive linemen.
4. Must have a clear opportunity to make an impact this year due to aging or injured vets in front of him, starting or key situational holes to fill, or be involved in a competition. No guys buried on their team's depth charts or unlikely to make the final roster.
5.There must be reason to believe that these guys can play. Knowing college backgrounds helps here.
6. Cannot have extensive starting experience or be an established player in the league. If the player has started games before, must have been in only a "spot" capacity. Eight career starts is a good ceiling in most cases, although we can be lenient here.
7. Can't be former first- or second-round picks. We're not looking at guys from which big things are already expected. Ray Rice, Chad Henne, Rashard Mendenhall, and Devin Thomas do not qualify as prospects.
I previously pointed out some of last year's hits ((Pierre Thomas, Steve Breaston, Tyler Thigpen, Kevin Boss), misses (Laurent Robinson, Brian Calhoun, Scott Chandler), and others that flirted with fantasy value (Chansi Stuckey, Miles Austin, Jason Hill). We got off to a pretty good start and hopefully it will continue.
The Prospects will be ranked based on talent, with opportunity weighed in heavily.
To give you some idea of the type of players we're looking at, here are some of my top candidates so far:
Jaguars WR Mike Walker
Eagles TE Brent Celek
Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles
Raiders WR Chaz Schilens
Rams RB Kenneth Darby
Redskins QB Colt Brennan
Saints WR Adrian Arrington
Seahawks RB Justin Forsett
Bills WR Steve Johnson
Packers TE Jermichael Finley
Colts WR Pierre Garcon
Bears WR Earl Bennett
Comments
VeggieB -
It's just another way to analyze potential sleepers. The column takes a look at the player's track record and opportunity. It's a good way to learn more about players in the NFL and possibly sniff out some fantasy value. Obviously, some of the guys aren't going to do anything. Some (like Pierre Thomas, Tyler Thigpen, Steve Breaston in '08) will turn out to be fantasy gold. Knowing if the guy can actually play and who he has to beat out, and whether that guy can play, is essential to discovering a sleeper.
Posted by: evan | July 13, 2009 04:04 PM
How about two 2nd round WR's from the 2008 Draft: Limas Sweed and Jordy Nelson. Sweed was a 1st round talent coming out of UT and should be the #3 with the Steelers. Plus, the Steelers usually ask for their 2nd year players to make the big jump. As for Nelson, he was a stud at Kansas State, offers some return yardage upside, and while he may be behind James Jones in Green Bay, there should be enough balls flying around from Aaron Rodgers.
Posted by: Steve C | July 13, 2009 05:46 PM
Apparently I didn't read #7. Sorry everyone.
Posted by: Steve C | July 13, 2009 05:49 PM
Apparently I didn't read #7.
Posted by: Steve C | July 13, 2009 05:50 PM
what about demetrius williams now that derrick mason retired earlier today? with flaccos big arm maybe theres some potential?
Posted by: niners fan 80 | July 13, 2009 05:59 PM
Possibly Dwayne Jarrett. He made some strides at the end of the year. Moose is at the end of his career so now is the time for Jarrett if he's going to do it.
Posted by: dave | July 13, 2009 07:02 PM
Chaz Schilens is definitley my favorite on this list. Look at his numbers from the last few games of the season.
He actually reminds me of Dwayne Bowe when he was a rookie on KC... meaning he is a tall, athletic wide-out on a terrible offense, but by default will get enough targets to be fantasy relevant. I could see him with 6-8 touchdowns this season. Great sleeper.
Posted by: jrb5151 | July 13, 2009 07:42 PM