2009 "Prospects" List for Draft Guide
Josh Morgan is directly in the mix to be Rotoworld's top 2009 prospect
I'm in the process of constructing the "Prospects" report for the 2009 Rotoworld Draft Guide. I've made a preliminary list of potential prospects, and plan to end with a Top 25. I'm hoping to get some opinions on who should be in the top five or ten. The criteria to be a "prospect" is as follows:
1. Cannot be rookies. Rookies are already over-analyzed. We're looking for second- to fourth-year players with chances to make a significant impact in fantasy.
2. Must be 26 or younger. I loosened this by one year (last year's list excluded anyone over 25) to expand the list of players to choose from.
3. Must play a fantasy relevant position. This is obvious enough. We're not looking at offensive linemen.
4. Must have a clear opportunity to make an impact this year due to aging or injured vets in front of him, starting or key situational holes to fill, or be involved in a competition. No guys buried on their team's depth charts or unlikely to make the final roster.
5.There must be reason to believe that these guys can play. Knowing college backgrounds helps here.
6. Cannot have extensive starting experience or be an established player in the league. If the player has started games before, must have been in only a "spot" capacity. Eight career starts is a good ceiling in most cases, although we can be lenient here.
7. Can't be former first- or second-round picks. We're not looking at guys from which big things are already expected. Ray Rice, Chad Henne, Rashard Mendenhall, and Devin Thomas do not qualify as prospects.
I previously pointed out some of last year's hits ((Pierre Thomas, Steve Breaston, Tyler Thigpen, Kevin Boss), misses (Laurent Robinson, Brian Calhoun, Scott Chandler), and others that flirted with fantasy value (Chansi Stuckey, Miles Austin, Jason Hill). We got off to a pretty good start and hopefully it will continue.
The Prospects will be ranked based on talent, with opportunity weighed in heavily.
To give you some idea of the type of players we're looking at, here are some of my top candidates so far:
Jaguars WR Mike Walker
Eagles TE Brent Celek
Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles
Raiders WR Chaz Schilens
Rams RB Kenneth Darby
Redskins QB Colt Brennan
Saints WR Adrian Arrington
Seahawks RB Justin Forsett
Bills WR Steve Johnson
Packers TE Jermichael Finley
Colts WR Pierre Garcon
Bears WR Earl Bennett
Comments
Evan... Totally with you on the Pierre Garcon. There is no reason that he shouldn't be able to put up numbers similar to Anthony Gonzalez did over the past couple of years.
Posted by: Davie Ricky | July 13, 2009 02:43 PM
Packers WR - James Jones. Was above average to excellent in college. Aging Donald Driver due for an injury. Greg Jennings is in the first year of a new contract (sometimes accompanied with a drop in performance ala 2008 Ryan Grant ). Is in his third year and should be more used to the Lambeau weather.
Posted by: Shyam | July 13, 2009 02:45 PM
Brent Celek and Earl Bennett have to be in the top 5.
Celek will be a top 10 TE this year.
Bennett has a legit shot to go from 0 to 50+ catches in year 2.
Posted by: LJP | July 13, 2009 02:47 PM
QB T. Smith
QB D. Dixon
HB T. Clayton
HB D. Wynn
HB M. Bell
HB A. Pittman
HB G. Wolfe
WR M. Manningham
WR L. Robinson
WR B. Obomanu
WR D. Anderson
WR B. Smith
TE M. Rucker
DL R. McDonald
Posted by: Captain Obvious | July 13, 2009 02:49 PM
Shyam -
I'm completely with you on James Jones. He was a guy I really struggled with determining whether he was eligible to be a "Prospect." Is he too established and well known? He caught 47 passes in nine starts as a rookie. I want Jones in, but am still not sure if he's "under the radar" enough.
Posted by: evan | July 13, 2009 02:49 PM
I've got a couple actually
Jets WR David Clowney
Dolphins WR Davone Bess (might be too experienced though)
Vikings WR Aundrae Allison
and yes
Panthers WR Dwayne Jarrett (he's only 22 still)
Posted by: JR | July 13, 2009 02:55 PM
what a great category -- i know this isn't totally fair, but it's sort of like "random guys who have done squat to date but you still took a dynasty flier on two or more years ago and still kinda foolishly hope will miraculously become relevant". sounds like every Tennessee WR since Mason left (i would say most Jax WRs too, but they blew high picks on most of the assorted bums they've had). maybe every Seattle WR last year (i drank the Rotoworld kool-aid on some of those guys, sadly). does it count as a start if no one throws you a catchable ball?!
Posted by: veggieb | July 13, 2009 03:10 PM