July 30, 2009
The National Football Post's industry draft kicked off Tuesday night at about 10:30 p.m. ET. Gregg finally took his nose off the PFT grindstone for the last train out of town at 11:00, so I stepped in to pinch-hit for Rotoworld. See below for first two rounds:
***Non-PPR League First Round (10-team league)
1. NFL Gridiron Gab - Adrian Peterson
2. Yahoo! - Matt Forte
3. RotoExperts - Michael Turner
4. Rotoworld - Maurice Jones-Drew
5. Hardcore Fantasy Show - Drew Brees
6. National Football Post - LaDainian Tomlinson
7. Fantasy Sharks - Tom Brady
8. ESPN - Larry Fitzgerald
9. Sports Illustrated - Steven Jackson
10. CBSSportsline - Andre Johnson
Continue reading "Industry draft: Reggie Bush sinks like a stone" »
Almost immediately after the NFL regular season (during the playoffs and going forward), I begin exploring prospects for the upcoming draft. I do columns on the top-15 prospects at each skill position, and this year added a write-up on the top-25 defenders. During the course of my running back research, I went through the week-by-week Ohio State game books to investigate Chris Wells' short-yardage productivity. He only scored eight touchdowns in 2008 and while watching him extensively on Saturdays I noticed a tendency to dance behind the line of scrimmage. I expected to use his percentages in situations where he ran the football with 2 or fewer yards needed for a first down or touchdown against him.
But I came away impressed. I can't find the statistics(doh), but do recall that Buckeyes coach Jim Tressel often used Dan Herron (six TDs) over Wells in short yardage. I imagine that was done to keep Wells fresh, due to his proclivity for nagging, minor injuries. Wells was a highly effective short-yardage back overall and would often break long runs even with only one or two yards needed for a first. Also, Wells scored 15 times as a sophomore, so it isn't like he lacks a nose for the end zone, despite his fairly low junior-year TD total.
Continue reading "Who will get goal-line carries in Arizona?" »
July 29, 2009
For now, we're assuming J.D. Booty will sport No. 4 for the Vikings this season
When drafting a fantasy football team, we can only go on what we know. We know Brett Favre is probably re-re-retired. We know the Vikings traded for Sage Rosenfels in February and handed him a $9 million extension. He'll collect $3.4 million this year.
That isn't usual starting quarterback money, but it's more than six times "competitor" Tarvaris Jackson's $535K salary. Rosenfels is the favorite to start.
Rosenfels is a poor man's Favre. He is highly aggressive, sometimes to a fault, offers adequate to above average arm strength, and is effective on the move. Rosenfels made 10 spot starts over the last two seasons when Matt Schaub was injured in Houston. A 21:22 TD to INT ratio with 8 fumbles over that span shows that Rosenfels isn't always careful with the rock.
But an outstanding 65.2 percent completion rate and stout 7.5 yards-per-attempt average reflect that Rosenfels is accurate enough at all levels to be effective in Darrell Bevell and Brad Childress' precision-based West Coast offense. Fittingly, Texans coach Gary Kubiak (of Bill Walsh influence) runs a variation of the West Coast system, so Rosenfels shouldn't face a steep learning curve in camp.
Rosenfels is in a competition and won't have as much freedom in Minnesota's run-first offense as he did with Houston. That keeps him out of the top-20 quarterbacks. But there still aren't many late-round fantasy backups with more upside. We'd take The Rosenfels Experience over Marc Bulger, Jake Delhomme, Chad Pennington, Brady Quinn, and JaMarcus Russell. He's behind Trent Edwards, Matt Hasselbeck, Jason Campbell, and Joe Flacco.
Continue reading "On Favre and Vick" »
July 28, 2009
Evan Silva admitted this morning that my Chris Johnson crush is wearing off on him as he recently selected the high-ceiling back in two industry drafts. With LenDale White due to see fewer touches this season, Johnson is a savvy first-round selection.
We already know that the Titans want to expand Johnson's role. Coaches Jeff Fisher and Mike Heimerdinger spent part of the offseason plotting creative ways to get the ball in Johnson's hands in space. If Nate Washington and Justin Gage can carry over their impressive play from OTAs, defenses won't be able to keep an extra defender in the box.
That's all well and good, but how do we know LenDale's carries will decline?
Continue reading ""Keep the Lead" LenDale losing value" »
Apparently Wesseling's Chris Johnson crush has rubbed off on me
I'm currently participating in three industry drafts, two of the point-per-reception variety and one non-PPR. One of the PPR first rounds isn't over, but the results of the other two were as follows:
***Non-PPR League First Round (14-team "deep" league)
1. Sports Grumblings - Adrian Peterson
2. RotoTimes - Maurice Jones-Drew
3. Monster Draft - Michael Turner
4. Fantasy Guru - Matt Forte
5. FantasyFootball.com - Steve Slaton
6. Fantasy Nuthouse - Steven Jackson
7. Inside the Stats - LaDainian Tomlinson
8. FF Pro Forecast - Frank Gore
9. Fanball - Larry Fitzgerald
10. Athlon/Grogan's - DeAngelo Williams
11. Rotoworld - Chris Johnson
12. The Huddle - Brian Westbrook
13. FF Mastermind - Randy Moss
14. Fantasy Tailgate - Andre Johnson
Continue reading "Latest first-round results in two industry drafts" »
July 27, 2009
Heading into last year, I'd never been a Matt Jones fan. I doubted him for most of last season, expecting Mike Walker to eventually surpass him as the Jaguars' No. 1 receiver. Horribly unlucky family/friend issues and some nagging injuries kept Walker low on Jacksonville's depth chart, however, and Jones proved he was a starting-caliber NFL wideout. Despite playing in a below-average passing attack, Jones was on pace to finish the 2008 season with 80 receptions for 937 yards before his season-ending three-game suspension for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy.
Late in May, the NFL notified Jones that he would not face further sanctions for violating a court-mandated drug program by drinking a few beers on a golf course, then testing positive for alcohol.
Jones is likely available for the NFL minimum salary, and almost certainly would take a one-year deal. He'd be a very low-risk signing. Still, he's generated next to no interest.
Continue reading "Matt Jones is still out there" »
July 23, 2009
Marshawn Lynch's college teammate has the look of a sleeper
In an effort to keep the blog active even during a mostly dead period for NFL news, I'm digging here for a sleeper running back. No, Justin Forsett shouldn't be drafted in anything but the deepest of fantasy leagues. He might not even make the Seahawks. But he has some interesting factors working in his favor:
1. The Seahawks' rushing attempts will soar under new offensive boss Greg Knapp. Knapp has been a coordinator since 2001. His teams' ranks in run attempts: 2nd (49ers, '01), 5th (49ers, '02), 5th (49ers, '03), 5th (Falcons, '04), 3rd (Falcons, '05), 1st (Falcons, '06), 4th (Raiders, '07), 10th (Raiders, '08). **Note that Knapp was weeded out of playcalling duties last year, likely contributing to Oakland's decline in carries. Either way, Knapp's track record of run-heavy offense is unprecedented. Under Gil Haskell and Mike Holmgren, the Seahawks ranked 22nd in carries in 2008. More attempts will create more opportunities for more players.
2. Forsett's competition for carries is unspectacular, to put it mildly. Projected starter Julius Jones' 4.4 YPC average in 2008 looks encouraging on paper, but he was unable to consistently hold off pedestrian vet Maurice Morris and matched a career high in fumbles despite seeing a career low in carries. Part 2 of the expected "1-2 punch," T.J. Duckett, is on his fourth team in as many seasons and has averaged a paltry 3.5 YPC over that span, never topping 380 rushing yards in a season.
3. Forsett is already familiar with the system, having played in a zone-blocking scheme just like Knapp's at Cal-Berkley, where Forsett shared the Bears' backfield with Marshawn Lynch. After Lynch moved on in 2007, Forsett showed he could carry a heavy workload at the college level, finishing second to only Jonathan Stewart in the Pac-Ten with 1,546 yards on 305 carries (5.1 YPC) and 15 touchdowns. Coach Jeff Tedford doesn't throw to his runners very often, but Forsett caught 22 passes that year and may already be the best pass-catching back on Seattle's roster.
Continue reading "Deeeep Sleeper: Justin Forsett" »
July 22, 2009
Since the unveiling of our first offseason Dynasty rankings back in May, spring practices have seen several players gaining momentum while others are losing steam. Here’s a brief look at the tight end movement:
Rising
1. Greg Olsen – Easily the Bears' best red-zone threat, the athletic Olsen is expected to exploit mismatches this season by lining up anywhere in the offense. Following the addition of Jay Cutler, FoxSports.com's John Czarnecki is predicting that Olsen will "double his production from 2008." We won't go quite that far, but we do forecast a 67/790/6 line this season.
2. Jermichael Finley – Finley spent his rookie season showcasing major knucklehead potential, but he must be doing a 180 this offseason. Both his quarterback and his coordinator have praised his progress, and he has a very real chance to unseat Donald Lee as the starter this summer.
Continue reading "Dynasty Rising/Falling: Tight Ends" »
Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson points out that film analysis shows LaDainian Tomlinson heavily declining. Aging and injury-prone players may often be worth a roll of the dice if there's a reasonable chance of a perfect-storm monster season still left in the tank, but Tomlinson's ceiling is no longer 2,000 total yards and 20+ touchdowns.
NFL Fanhouse's legal expert, Stephanie Stradley, breaks down Ben Roethlisberger's civil suit and how it relates to the NFL Conduct Policy. As PFT's Mike Florio points out, the resolution to this drama could be a long time coming. I wouldn't expect Big Ben to miss any action this season.
The Raiders are a backfield in motion this summer. Check out beat writer Jerry McDonald's analysis, which bolsters our mid-May recommendation to buy Darren McFadden in Dynasty leagues. McDonald is calling for 50-plus receptions, a forecast that matches up well with Football Outsiders' predictions. Re-draft PPR leaguers take notice.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: LT declining heavily?" »
July 21, 2009
Chris Wesseling reported on eight of the most undervalued fantasy players in late June. With days separating us from the start of training camp, here's an updated look at the "Criminally Undervalued and Overvalued" as of July 21.
OVERVALUED:
1. DeAngelo Williams - Rated as a value no earlier than the late second round by Rotoworld's Draft Guide projections, the No. 1 fantasy back from 2008 currently holds an ADP of 7.6 overall. For those new to Average Draft Position, that means he's going near the middle of the first round in 12- and 14-team leagues and at the end of round one in 10-team formats. We anticipate Jonathan Stewart's role expanding and Williams' touch total dropping from 299 to 250. D-Willy is also unlikely to repeat his 20 touchdowns. We still like him for double digits, but Williams is clearly one of the most hotly debated fantasy picks heading to the heart of draft season.
2. Wes Welker - As the league leader in catches since 2006, Welker is far more desirable in points-per-reception leagues. These ADP ranks are for non-PPR, and Welker surprisingly holds an ADP of 30.7 (mid-third round in 12-team leagues). Welker remains a key cog in New England's offense, but we don't think he'll continue to outdo Randy Moss in targets (Welker got 24 more last year), and Tom Brady's accuracy in the short passing game (Welker's bread and butter) is a concern coming off a torn ACL and MCL. We'd rather have Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall, Terrell Owens, or Braylon Edwards as our WR2. At least in non-PPR.
3. T.J. Houshmandzadeh - While we consider him the 71st best fantasy player (a late sixth-round pick in the 12-team format), Housh is going 34th overall. In other words, no one going by Rotoworld's ranks is gonna get him. Houshmandzadeh, going on 32, is entering a rushing-friendly Seahawks offense under running guru Greg Knapp where he'll compete for targets over the middle with John Carlson and explosive rookie slot man Deon Butler. Housh has averaged just 4.5 touchdowns over the last two seasons, and his catch count is certain to fall. Since Housh isn't a big-play receiver, his yards will likely also tumble.
Continue reading "ADP's Most Undervalued/Overvalued" »
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