Westbrook's workload will drop
If past offseasons have taught us anything, the screaming headlines of June often look silly by September. So what do we make of the panic in Philadelphia after the Brian Westbrook surgery?
If I was an Eagles fan, I wouldn't be so worried yet. If I was a Westbrook fantasy owner, I would.
Even in a best case scenario (and Rotoworld has confirmed Westbrook should be running in six weeks), this injury hurts Westbrook's value significantly. Let's say Westbrook is fully healthy before Week 1 and looking like his old self. I think these surgeries, combined with Westbrook's struggles late last season, will encourage the Eagles to be extremely cautious with his workload.
This Philadelphia team is hunting big game - a championship. They won't get carried away worrying about Westbrook's contributions in October when they are focused on January. With improved weapons on both sides of the ball, especially offense, they also can be more careful with him.
After 368 touches in 2007, Westbrook dropped to 287 last season. We projected him for 275 in our first magazine, but that number is going to drop. It could be closer to 225, which is line with his averages between 2003-2005. Even if Westbrook plays well, he's unlikely to be a top-15 back with that workload. What's good for the Eagles and Westbrook won't be good for owners.
Comments
How far is Wess going to drop him in dynasty rankings????
Posted by: TC | June 5, 2009 10:28 AM
TC,
I dropped him a full tier on my blog last night. He may drop another spot or three upon reconsideration. I think he's in the 20-25 area now considering his age, injury history, and workload concerns.
So much of his value was tied up in 2009. I'm not saying he can't still be useful in '09, but chances are he won't put in that last dominant season that Westbrook owners were hoping for.
Posted by: Wess | June 5, 2009 10:53 AM
Oh, and great points by Gregg.
I'm a Westbrook owner, and my realistic hope level for his value in 2009 and beyond just dropped through the floor.
Posted by: Wess | June 5, 2009 10:54 AM
Westbrook was a guy I was thinking of targeting (among other questionable backs), since the top 5 guys are already taken in my dynasty league. With his injury woes, now coupled with a reduced workload. I'd stay way clear of him.
Posted by: Jimbo | June 5, 2009 11:48 AM
Westbrook Dynasty Value
We've currently got him ranked at #22 among Dynasty RB's...and falling.
Posted by: BeastOrBust | June 5, 2009 11:57 AM
I own Westy, and have been trying to unload him all offseason...the few bites I did have have of course been scared away now.
There is one offer left on the table: Westy and my 2nd rounder next year for Romo and a 3rd this year.
Not crazy about the deal at all, but am thinking maybe I should take what I can get at this point...his value couldn't be any lower.
Just not sure about Romo this year...I'm a die-hard Cowboys fan, and I don't see this team doing squat this season. T.O.'s departure is gonig to HURT this offense big-time, IMO.
Posted by: starred4life | June 5, 2009 12:02 PM
Take the Romo deal quickly. Romo has a good chance to put up QB1 numbers this year which would give you the option of keeping or trading him. Westy is very unlikely to produce at an RB2 level and his value will drop again next year. Even if Westy bounces back this year he probably only has two good years in him.
Posted by: mccerd | June 5, 2009 12:44 PM