Undervalued: Vernon Davis
This blog post probably won't be popular. But if you remove the 2008 blinders, it's clear that Vernon Davis' situation has improved dramatically since 2008. There are plenty of reasons to believe he'll be a big factor in San Francisco's new offense and an excellent late-round fantasy value.
1. Davis has already proven that he can be valuable in fantasy. There is a perception that Davis has done nothing in the league, that he's a complete bust. This is false. Despite playing in a rotation with Eric Johnson and missing two games in 2007, Davis caught 52 passes for 509 yards and four touchdowns to finish as the fantasy TE14 overall. This, mind you, was in a historically poor offense coordinated by Norv Turner-replacement Jim Hostler. Hostler was removed in favor of Mike Martz following the season.
2. Davis is an every-down tight end. Adding to the previous point, Davis has a lot of NFL value. Even while playing disgruntled in Martz's tight end-unfriendly offense last season, Davis dominated in the running game. And as Football Scientist K.C. Joyner points out Davis was devastating at the point of attack after Mike Singletary took over in Week 8. The Niners did not look to challenge Davis this offseason, drafting only sixth-rounder Bear Pascoe to replace backup Billy Bajema. Davis will rarely come off the field.
3. Martz is gone. This is easily the biggest plus for Davis. Fantasy projectors should've known better than to expect Davis to build on his promising 2007 under Martz. The most productive TE Martz had ever coached was Ernie Conwell in 2001 (38 catches/431 yards/4 TDs). Mike Martz tight ends block and run occasional vertical routes. Outside receivers catch the passes.
4. Jimmy Raye is in. Raye runs a Norv Turner-style offense (think Jay Novacek, Antonio Gates) that will use the TE heavily in the passing game. The Jets' running backs coach last year, Raye's offense in New York saw rookie Dustin Keller catch 35 passes in the last eight games. Some comments from Raye on Davis:
My initial thought going in, just like with (Tony) Gonzalez at Kansas City, is he is a threat at that position - a nightmare for some teams. We'll exploit that to its maximum ability. I would expect he will be a major part of what we do.
5. Davis will come cheaply in fantasy drafts. He's the perfect flier pick to pair with a risky starter like Kellen Winslow, Jeremy Shockey, or John Carlson. Davis' ceiling is much higher than Heath Miller, Visanthe Shiancoe, Kevin Boss, Todd Heap, or Anthony Fasano.
Davis, or more accurately Mike Martz, burned a lot of fantasy owners last season, but Singletary and Raye are intent on getting a lot out of the physical freak. According to beat reporter Matthew Barrows, "The philosophy regarding Davis this year seems to be the opposite of what it was last summer: Just get the ball into his hands, even if it's a short pass, and let him gain yardage with his feet." That's a recipe for fantasy value.
Comments
I am on board, in a big way with this, and look forward to adding him late on almost all of my teams.
Posted by: Kirby | June 2, 2009 3:44 PM
i think there are a lot of valid points made here, and i agree with them.
one question i have is vernon's standing with coach mike singletary. as i remember, he was the point of emphasis that famous halftime when mike dropped his pants. have we heard anymore about this relationship?
he has always been the physical freak, but even if a system changes and the coach doesn't like you, playing time may be an issue. and that of course will affect fantasy value...
Posted by: joeymitch | June 2, 2009 5:01 PM
Joeymitch - Singletary admitted that he made an example out of Davis and has since taken him under his wing in a major way. The head coach-player relationship is no longer an issue.
Posted by: evan | June 2, 2009 5:06 PM
very good post. i actually have davis and carlson in a league so this gives me some added support.
ill prob target him in a redraft league as well. no where to go but up, and given all those circomstances, we may finally have his breakout year on hand. i think the only arguements against him are those who got burned by him before, but that can only help him slide and game more value in drafts. gotta have a short memory on some guys people.
Posted by: scott c | June 2, 2009 5:45 PM
also, wow on the B.Marshall news! just to be sure, does that mean he WONT be suspended after all. thats huge!
Posted by: scott c | June 2, 2009 5:48 PM
PPR Dynasty League: Heath Miller or Vernon Davis? They are rated next to each other in the dynasty rankings. If we can agree that Davis has the higher upside then I think I will try to trade Miller for him, as I have Dustin Keller to play if Davis were to fall on his face.
Posted by: Jesse | June 2, 2009 5:57 PM
I won't be drafting Vernon Davis in any leagues this year. He always has 3 QB's throwing to him 49ers like to use them all. Davis has been a bust for a long time.
Posted by: Misfit | June 2, 2009 6:09 PM