Ten boom-or-bust wide receivers
High-risk/high-reward wide receivers were on my mind today after the recent hype being thrown at Marques Colston, Ted Ginn, Chad Ochocinco and Percy Harvin. That got me thinking, "Who might be the Top-10 boom-or-bust wide receivers for this season?" Let's give it a shot:
1. Brandon Marshall – A certified WR1 when not in the back of a police cruiser, Marshall faces questions about the hip surgery, a possible suspension and an ongoing squabble with the Broncos.
2. Marques Colston – Another true WR1 when healthy, Colston is coming off microfracture surgery on his troublesome left knee. That makes two straight offseasons with knee surgery.
3. Dwayne Bowe – Could be a target monster after the Tony Gonzalez trade, but the Chiefs offense figures to struggle to score points this season. We're going to have to change his nickname to "Snacks" if he doesn't stop eating.
4. Roy Williams – Flashed undeniable talent early in his Lions career, but he never could put it all together to emerge as a reliable fantasy stud. Will that change as Romo’s No. 1 receiver?
5. Chad Ocho Cinco – Now going on age 32, is Ocho a prime bounce-back candidate, or he is simply past his prime? As always with the Bengals, there’s a danger of the whole team going in the tank by October.
6. Lee Evans – Vicious double teams and a poor passing attack have kept this difference-making talent under wraps. Will T.O.’s presence help or hurt his numbers?
7. Antonio Bryant – His knucklehead potential is off the charts, but he showed last season that his talent is as well. Quarterback choice could have a dramatic effect on his numbers.
8. Devin Hester – Emerged as a reliable WR3 down the stretch last season and now has a major upgrade at QB. Can he handle the attention that comes with the No. 1 receiver role?
9. Ted Ginn Jr. – He’s been a standout this offseason, but that shouldn’t be surprising with no contact allowed. Ginn has to prove he can graduate to reliable target/No. 1 receiver for the Dolphins.
10. Percy Harvin – The skeptics will be out in full force simply because he’s a rookie, but it’s tough for coaches to keep explosive playmakers chained to the sidelines. Chilly has already admitted that he’s “Wowed” by Harvin’s talent, but he will get the ball in the homerun threat's hands consistently?
Comments
Marshall is a way more BUST than BOOM these days -- without Cutler, with another injury, with an almost guaranteed suspension, and with a potential holdout and/or trade to a lesser fantasy offense, the chances of him going BOOM are pretty weak this year. He's high-risk, medium-reward, not high-reward this year.
If you want to make smart bets on boom/bust candidates, always take the guys with the best QBs. A healthy Carson Palmer means Chad J is a great value play. Tony Romo makes Roy Williams more likely to be a boom than bust. Brees makes Colston way less riskier than some on your list. By contrast, Ginn, Bryant and Evans are all screwed for the foreseeable future.
Posted by: veggieb | June 18, 2009 05:42 PM
You got the wrong guy in Buffalo. I would add Owens, Braylon Edwards, and Vincent Jackson to the list, and I'd remove Bowe & Evans (who aren't likely to bust too badly) and Ginn & Harvin (who aren't likely to boom too high). No one likes a top 9 list, so let's round it out with Anthony Gonzalez.
Posted by: Dan | June 18, 2009 05:58 PM
I think this is a fair list. I was looking for whether Gregg thought they were going to be a boom or a bust. Marshall: I'm weary of picking. Colston: ditto Marshall. Bowe: I like with where he'll probably fall in a draft. Roy Williams: not touching. Ocho: I like. Evans: maybe late. Bryant: not touching. Hester: worth a late look with Cutler-just go deep. Ginn: Rotoworld's dog- I like him. Harvin: I like the situation he is in, but will probably go too early in drafts.
Posted by: Matt | June 18, 2009 11:37 PM
I like the list in general, but I have to agree with Dan on one point. Lee Evans and Dwayne Bowe are more good value picks than boom or bust candidates. I see both of them as serviceable WR's coming at a good price, with the chance to post monster numbers.
Colston scares the bejesus out of me. We all know he can play ball when healthy, but it seems like he hasn't been able to stay healthy for long... and by the looks of some of the mock drafts out there, he's not coming at a discount.
Posted by: Davie Ricky | June 19, 2009 10:48 AM
I don't like any of these guys for a number 1 WR. I would draft any of the ten as a WR2. At that point you get better value for a boom and it don't hurt as much if thier a bust.
Posted by: Shannon | June 19, 2009 01:54 PM
i agree for the most part on this list but i would have to think that colston is gonna perform as expected. the injury risk is there, and hes shown that any lingering affects could undermine his performance on the field. he is one of the few guys in the league who has more issues with playing at less than 100%. but still should be worth the rd.2 selection and dynasty must-keep. we already know about marshall, roy e., bryant and ocho being said boom/bust type. this all makes sense here. a lot of ?'s here on these guys. i dont anticipate all succeeding expectations this year. Bowe and Evans are more solid/undervalued at this point. while most people like them moderately each year, this year i can see them gradually going higher in drafts, especially come late august. they are both setup to strike the most on this list. ginn's "jump" this season could be small. and harvin is adjusting to the pro game. those two are the wildcards... classic boom or bust. hester is in that boat too, but with cutler, anything goes.
i would also add...
braylon - more of a undervalued/boom, but u never know.
l.coles - could be exctly what TJ was 2008, or what he was in 2008. unknown
TJ housh - similar ?'s of being a no.1 as roy e, and age/qb drop off likely.
barrian - could be overdrafted; he was very inconsistent last year.
crabbtree - if ur gonna put harvin on here u gotta put crab. he has the potential to be drafted much higher and produce way less.
s.moss - the quitessential boom or bust on a yearly basis.
d.jackson - a lot of talent on that wr corps. can he avoid the slump? im not sure he has the body/mentality to continually improve each year. could really dissappoint, especially if compared to royal.
h.ward - age/injury can def catch him this year.
s.holmes - still expecting that breakout? im not, but im sure some people are.
r.moss - again could be overdrafted. brady will bounce back but by how much? and when does randy's decline start? maybe this year. could be worth the pass on a high pick. showed big inconsistancy last year.
cotchery - say what you will about favre and pennington, but clemens and sanchez have a long way to go to get to their level.
d.mason - could this be his last year of overachieving? very well could be this years t.holt.
t.holt - speaking of, hes a must-avoid imo. the name recogniton and no.1 title could overvalue him.
e.bennett - i know, but he is going pretty high as a flier without proving anything yet.
Posted by: scott c | June 19, 2009 02:03 PM
lee evans,donnie avery,eddie royal,josh morgan,braylon and chad 85
are all big boom guys,imo
braylon and chad's adp of 4th rd has value written all over it (contract plays) and the rest are going from the 6th rd to 16th rd
Posted by: brent | June 20, 2009 01:40 PM