Stafford won't displace Megatron's Rank
When the post-draft period started, Daunte Culpepper was Detroit's expected Week 1 starter. After a series of fawning articles about Matthew Stafford's development, it already looks like a dead heat. And the tie will seemingly go to the rookie.
I wrote about this elsewhere last night, but I'm interested in the fantasy angle here. Notably, would Stafford winning the job in Week 1 have any impact on Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith's fantasy value?
My instinct says yes, Stafford will be a minor drain on Megatron. But I was already assuming that he would start roughly ten games of his rookie season in my initial projections, which ranked Calvin Johnson fourth.
Even an above-average rookie quarterback is only going to produce like a replacement-level veteran starter like Culpepper, so the ceiling for the Detroit passing game is fairly low. The best-case scenario for Johnson is what happened with Roddy White last season in Atlanta. White dominated the team's efficient passing yardage. The worst-case scenario is Alex Smith or Eli Manning's rookie performances.
I don't think Stafford will be as effective as Ryan, but I do think the Lions will pass more than Atlanta did last year. In the end, I see Johnson a cut below the big three of Fitz, AJ, and Randy Moss. I would still take him ahead of Roddy White and Steve Smith, my next two wideouts, but the gap is closing. I don't see a big difference between spots 4-6.
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