It surprises me a little that every year we see major turn arounds in the NFL by the previous years bottom teams yet at the begining of every year we always say it won't happen with another team.

I honestly think the Lions are as talented as the Dolphins were going into last year. And I believe that the new coaching staff in Detroit is the best I have seen in my 30 years of following them.

I'm not saying they are a shoe in to be better, but why do we pre suppose they can't be much imporved? Dolphins went 1-15 to what 11-5?

As far as Stafford, I don't remember anyone saying Ryan or Flaco for that matter would be solid starting QB's their first year. And NO ONE liked Roddy White to repeat his 2007 numbers. So I see no reason a dramaticly more talented WR in Calvin can't do just as well with Stafford. I think the situation is quite similar.

@Veggieb

Did you not catch who was the Lions QB last year? Yea. So how does anyone possibly see a drop off in numbers for Calvin after he produced the way he did in his 2nd year with crap at QB.

The QB situation is better. I told this to the people afraid of Roddy White after he broke out, he had Leftwich and Harrington rotating at QB, so obviously a rookie QB was an upgrade over those two.

Besides that, Calvin is a monster and only getting better. Why would you take Steve Smith? He's only posted over 1200 yards twice and isn't going to put up the TD totals Calvin can.

That and Steve Smith's QB situation isn't all that good, Delhomme is well below average and Steve Smith has never been ELITE more then twice, he's a safe bet for 1100 and 7 but Calvin smashed that last year.

No reason that him one year better, with the upgrades Det has made, that his numbers drop. Situation with him and Roddy are exactly the same, a WR as talented as Calvin will score no matter who is at QB.

Baffles me that people think Stafford is somehow a downgrade from Orlovsky, seriously?

Chris R.-

I think what most people are afraid of here is M. Stafford/Detroit doing to Calvin what D. Carr/Houston did to Andre Johnson.

While he's not quite as talented/physically gifted as Calvin, I think we'd all agree that Andre is still one of the most talented WRs in the game today.

And as talented as AJ is, look what poor QB play did to him from '03 - '06:

2003: 66, 976, 4
2004: 79, 1142, 6
2005: 63, 688, 2 (13 games)
2006: 103, 1147, 5

In my league (.5 PPR), that was good for a WR23 finish in '03, a WR18 finish in '04, a WR43 finish in '05 (13g), and a WR12 finish in '06.

Taking away his injury-shortened '05 campaign, his average finish with Carr under center was as a WR18--merely average.

With solid QB play last year, AJ finished as the WR1 in my league--quite a difference.

This 'Poor QB Effect' (predictably) happens quite often to WRs; a couple more recent examples:

Steve Smith in '07 (no Delhomme): WR19----WR10 in '06

Randy Moss in '08 (no Brady): WR13----WR1 in '07

As we can see, three of the most talented WRs in the game saw their production drop substantially due to poor QB play. So there's certainly precedent here for what owners are fearing might happen to CJ.

To dispel those fears by simply saying "Calvin's too talented for that to happen" seems a bit naive given the examples above, no?

I don't think anyone is saying Calvin will be terrible this year, but I think owners are worried that his production won't justify the high pick it will take to get him this year (current ADP of 16).

I also understand the "his QB play was horrible last year" argument, but I still think there can be a large difference in talent between a rookie QB and a shotty veteran QB.

And as one poster has already pointed out, a decent portion CJ's scoring last year while playing with Orlovsky/Culpepper under center came from low-percentage plays that aren't likely to be repeated again.

Chris R -- if you read my post, you'll see I acknowledged that Detroit's QB situation was crappy last year too. I think your suggestion that a rookie QB will be better is reasonable. But I also think the scenario where the rookie QB plays worse than Culpepper et al did last year is as likely or more likely to happen.

I'm no fan of Delhomme but the one skill he has in life is getting his WR1 the ball. With their strong ground game, Carolina will score. Steve will get his share of that largesse. He is a safe bet for very nice numbers.

So if you're a gambling man, certainly you could make the argument that Calvin will do better than Steve and so you'll roll those dice. But when it comes to my highest draft picks, I think you have to give a little extra credit to stability/certainty and avoiding gambles like a rookie QB (yes, we're all impressed by Matt Ryan, but so what -- there are way more rookie QB's who struggle than rookie QB's who make their WR1's worth a high fantasy draft pick. Jamarcus Russell anyone?)

Personally, I win fantasy leagues based on my depth picks. Any chump can draft a Calvin. The key to winning is who you draft in the middle rounds. If you make your top picks too much of a gamble, they can single-handedly ruin your season.

Vikings fan here and in my book Calvin Johnson was not only the best receiver in the league last year but is the best active wide receiver in the NFL, bar none. Name one receiver that could have done what he did with 5 so-so to bad QBs. No one.

Rank | Player | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | YAC | R/T%
 1 | Andre Johnson | 115 | 1575 | 13.7 | 8 | 493 | 67.6
 2 | Larry Fitzgerald | 96 | 1431 | 14.9 | 12 | 461 | 62.3
 3 | Steve Smith | 78 | 1421 | 18.2 | 6 | 439 | 60.5
 4 | Roddy White | 88 | 1382 | 15.7 | 7 | 388 | 59.5
 5 | Calvin Johnson | 78 | 1331 | 17.1 | 12 | 511 | 51.7

The stats that jump out at me are the number of TDs, yards after the catch, and doing it all on a mere 51.7% of reception percentage of targeted passes.

Damn, I guess I have a man crush.

Ot013N