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Ronnie Brown: Undervalued?

Gregg Rosenthal and I made two preseason bets last year. The one I lost was total fantasy points between Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Though I remained a true Ronnie Brown believer before he exploded in the first seven games of 2007, I strictly adhere to the "Running Back Two Year Major Injury Rule."

When Brown, Philip Rivers, and Carlos Rogers were all enjoying early-season success last fall, Gregg and I also discussed how much ACL surgery has evolved in just the past 5-10 years. No longer a death sentence for football players, it appears to be a mere hiccup.

If there's one position, however, where the hesitation from major knee surgery significantly affects performance, it's running back. Now over a year and half removed from the injury, Brown is a much better bet for consistent production.

When looking at the Tier Three Dynasty running back rankings from last week, I noted that the whole group of veterans had legit question marks. While I can outline significant fantasy concerns for all of them, the best I could come up with for Brown is that Ricky is still around, albeit in a lesser role this season.

One year after placing him on my "do not draft" list, I'm tabbing the contract-year Brown as my early leader on the "undervalued" list. What does everybody think? Will Ronnie Brown be undervalued as a late third-round pick this summer? Can he recapture the magic of October, 2007?

Comments

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Brown is the most overrated RB I have ever seen. He has had one dominate 3 game stretch in a system and for a coach that are both gone. While he is further removed from his injury, he's also further from his youth.

He's NEVER had a real good season, let alone a dominate one. To me, he's a good 3rd back in a standard scoring redraft league.

The MIA Wildcat is not fooling anyone this season (especially the Patriots!) Take out his surprise 5 TD game when the Wildcat caight NE offgaurd and he was an average RB for the season. He is like the Chad Ochocinco of RBs...the final numbers look good, but then you realize most of the stats came from only a few big games. RB2 at best.

He may end up as a RB1 but that is a big question mark, so I can't see labeling him as undervalued as a late 3rd rounder. Addressing some of the points of previous posters and some additional thoughts on the matter: 1. The Dolphins play the Steelers in week 17, so that is a non-issue. 2. A Baltimore Rex Ryan defense is different from a NY Jets Rex Ryan defense, unless you don't think personnel matters. 3. Yes, ACL surgery has come a long way. 4. As for schedule, and playing the AFC South and NFC south - I am not sure it is that tough. Indy, Tampa Bay may be 2 of the easier teams to run on and Tennessee was a cream puff 2 years ago when Haynesworth was out (see Redskins). New Orleans, Houston and Jax - are they run stoppers? I'm not so sure that the schedule will be much more challenging. 5. The offensive line may be better too. The wildcat was instituted because the O-Line was getting crushed through the inside. Sparano is an O-Line coach and knows what to do there. Jake Long and Vernon Carey are top-flight Tackles. When Justin Smiley broke his leg in November the rushing game really suffered. He is back and feeling good. The team ditched smallish center Samson Satele for the mauler Jake Grove (who I'm not sure has reached the level of play that was expected of him when he was drafted, but is clearly an upgrade - he was the heart of the Raiders rushing attack). 6. Just because the Wildcat will not surprise anyone does not mean it will not be effective. They only scratched the surface of the play calling out of the formation. There needs to be a throwing component that was lacking. The addition of Pat White addresses that. He was only drafted because they organization wants to pursue the Wildcat. They did not draft White to be the future QB although one never knows. 7. Someone mentioned the possibility of a Chad Pennington injury as ruining the dolphins offense. I do not subscribe to the philosophy. I believe the dolphins drafted a guy who looked real good last preseason that holds passing records at a certain Big Ten school in career TDs, Completions, and passing yards. Wolverine Chad Henne has all the skills to lead this offense. 8. Ronnie Brown has never carried the load by himself in high school or college and the season he did for the dolphins he broke down. I am not sure how to interpret this but it is the facts. Just amounts to assumed risks in Brown - it doesn't mean he couldn't handle 300 carries. 9. Do what ever you can to make sure Ronnie Brown is on your team on week 3 and then trade him. In his 4 years in the league he has scored 110 points in week 3, including 40 points in each of the last 2 years. In his awesome 2007 campaign his numbers kept dipping after week 3 until he got hurt. 10. If the receivers keep improving their play as they did in the second half of last year (Ginn and Bess plus another) they should help the running game open up some more lanes.

I drafted Ronnie Brown last year ( what equated to be the 82nd pick in a 10 team keeper league) but didn't start him in week 3 - not sure many did. I only used him for spot starts occasionally. I get to keep 3 players but am pretty stacked. I have DeAngelo Williams, Gore, Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and Peyton Manning and will probably try to pawn off Fitzgerald and DeAngelo for better draft picks (we'll see), but I could see picking Ronnie Brown with my first round pick (equal to a 4th round after 3 keepers). I was fortunate to win last year so get the last pick. If he is still there, I may consider him, but I wouldn't consider him a steal. He only rushed over 70 yards twice last season. He could do it 8 times this year and I wouldn't be surprised. If he is more involved in the passing game as he was in 2007 then its a steal - but thats an if. I'm going with 1400 yards rushing/receiving and 8 tds. Too many risks to be considered undervalued. Thats a quarter over my 2 cents worth.

Thomas - I feel like your post was probably insightful, but it's impossible to read without more paragraph breaks!

Though I like him better this year than last, I see him as a little over-rated according to that list. Slaton, L.T., R Bush and maybe even P Thomas, R Rice, Felix Jones and R Grant should have a better year than Ronnie, even in a PPC league. I'd put him at the very end of Teir 3, top of Tier 4 after a few legitimately under-rated guys move ahead of him.

Ronnie will probably have decent yards, and maybe decent TD's, to rank high, but I don't see him doing well consistently enough to help me win a lot of fantasy games - unless I platoon him with someone else and get lucky picking the right games.

Dude, nobody likes a whiner...

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