Ronnie Brown: Undervalued?
Gregg Rosenthal and I made two preseason bets last year. The one I lost was total fantasy points between Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Though I remained a true Ronnie Brown believer before he exploded in the first seven games of 2007, I strictly adhere to the "Running Back Two Year Major Injury Rule."
When Brown, Philip Rivers, and Carlos Rogers were all enjoying early-season success last fall, Gregg and I also discussed how much ACL surgery has evolved in just the past 5-10 years. No longer a death sentence for football players, it appears to be a mere hiccup.
If there's one position, however, where the hesitation from major knee surgery significantly affects performance, it's running back. Now over a year and half removed from the injury, Brown is a much better bet for consistent production.
When looking at the Tier Three Dynasty running back rankings from last week, I noted that the whole group of veterans had legit question marks. While I can outline significant fantasy concerns for all of them, the best I could come up with for Brown is that Ricky is still around, albeit in a lesser role this season.
One year after placing him on my "do not draft" list, I'm tabbing the contract-year Brown as my early leader on the "undervalued" list. What does everybody think? Will Ronnie Brown be undervalued as a late third-round pick this summer? Can he recapture the magic of October, 2007?
Comments
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Posted by: Dirk | June 1, 2009 03:13 PM
It sounds very nice but why would Miami coaching staff change something that worked so well last year? I believe it will continue to be a pure committee similar to last year. In the 4th, he is good value, not sooner! I am a big fan but think he is being overhyped.
Posted by: SSS | June 1, 2009 04:30 PM
btw.. it looks like H.Nicks likely wont make it onto the field this year. its early but i dont like that hes now behind manningham, which is understood considering that coaches tendancy of not letting rooks easily get playing time. could be a very big uphill battle for Nicks this year just not to be Manningham of last year.
Posted by: scott c | June 1, 2009 04:52 PM
When my balls itch I think of Ronnie Brown and they are suddenly feeling the kind of bliss only a farmer truly knows..
Posted by: Franken Stein | June 1, 2009 06:42 PM
When my balls itch I think of Ronnie Brown and they are suddenly feeling the kind of bliss only a Dolphin fan truly knows.
Posted by: Franken Stein | June 1, 2009 06:43 PM
Sorry, not buying it.
Only 3.8 yds per carry in the traditional run offense---that's not setting the world on fire. Plus, he has to face a Rex Ryan defense twice (the Ravens DESTROYED the wildcat last year).
He's the typical guy that starts undervalued now, but by the draft he'll be way over-valued (Think Willis McGahee & Larry Johnson from last year---both 2nd round picks after previous injured seasons).
If you are talking 5th or 6th round, ok, but 2nd or 3rd Round...No thanks
Doc
Posted by: Doc | June 1, 2009 07:04 PM
In a re-draft, i love Ronnie Brown for next year. He was working his way back from an ACL injury and had to split some carries with Rasta Ricky. He will be a full season removed from the surgery, should be the focal point of the offense and I think we'll see a more consistent Ronnie Brown this year. Stats should land somewhere in between 2007 (pre-injury) and 2008. He could be a sleeper to have Top 5 stats next season, which his great value and upside in the 2nd or 3rd round of your draft.
In a dynasty league, his value is more of a question mark, but well worth a chance because of his upside. He doesn't have much tread on his tires and he will play all of '09 as a 27 year old. If you can get him at a slight discount in your dyno, jump on it.
Posted by: BeastOrBust | June 1, 2009 07:14 PM