Ronnie Brown: Undervalued?
Gregg Rosenthal and I made two preseason bets last year. The one I lost was total fantasy points between Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Though I remained a true Ronnie Brown believer before he exploded in the first seven games of 2007, I strictly adhere to the "Running Back Two Year Major Injury Rule."
When Brown, Philip Rivers, and Carlos Rogers were all enjoying early-season success last fall, Gregg and I also discussed how much ACL surgery has evolved in just the past 5-10 years. No longer a death sentence for football players, it appears to be a mere hiccup.
If there's one position, however, where the hesitation from major knee surgery significantly affects performance, it's running back. Now over a year and half removed from the injury, Brown is a much better bet for consistent production.
When looking at the Tier Three Dynasty running back rankings from last week, I noted that the whole group of veterans had legit question marks. While I can outline significant fantasy concerns for all of them, the best I could come up with for Brown is that Ricky is still around, albeit in a lesser role this season.
One year after placing him on my "do not draft" list, I'm tabbing the contract-year Brown as my early leader on the "undervalued" list. What does everybody think? Will Ronnie Brown be undervalued as a late third-round pick this summer? Can he recapture the magic of October, 2007?
Comments
Definitely undervalued. I am targeting him as a trade opportunity in my keeper league. If you can get him at a good price, jump on it.
Posted by: SaintsFan | June 1, 2009 01:30 PM
I agree with this totally. I thought it take a year for him to get comfortable etc and that this would be the year to get him. good post
Posted by: scott c | June 1, 2009 01:34 PM
not usually a big contract year believer, but don't underrate the improved focus for a player like Brown known for lax work habits.
we're already getting the puff pieces about great shape, and sparano challenging him to go from good to great.
Posted by: gregg | June 1, 2009 01:43 PM
One potential downside is that the Dolphins offense is probably going to regress a bit this season. The schedule is much tougher (the pitiful AFCW & NFCW are replaced by the decent NFCS and downright scary AFCS, plus strength-of-schedule games against PIT and SD). The wildcat stuff isn't going to catch anybody by surprise anymore, and the chances of Chad P. staying on the field for 16 games are always dim.
Ronnie may still be a good value at his ADP, but keep in mind that there will likely fewer fantasy points to go around in Miami in 2009 than there were last season.
Posted by: Enoch | June 1, 2009 02:00 PM
It's early but Im already seeing his ADP moving up to the late 2nd early 3rd turn...at least in ppr leagues. "Bong Water" Williams is a year older, Ronnie is two years removed from the knee inj.....although, as previous poster stated, much tougher sched this year for MIA....still, he stacks up as one of the safer plays of the backs in the late 2nd and anywhere in the 3rd. If u are fortunate enought to get him late 3rd early 4th...its highway robbery!
Posted by: Interested Observer | June 1, 2009 02:14 PM
Id love to see where Ronnie is ranked in my issue of Rotoworlds newest magazine but alas.....
When should we expect it?
Posted by: Wes | June 1, 2009 02:26 PM
Id love to see where Ronnie is ranked in my issue of Rotoworlds newest magazine but alas.....
When should we expect it?
Posted by: Wes | June 1, 2009 02:27 PM