Projecting The Train's Carry Total
Brandon Jacobs has averaged an outstanding 95.6 rushing yards per start over the last two seasons. His YPC over that span is a robust 4.98 and he's scored 21 touchdowns in 24 games.
The Giants let Derrick Ward walk in free agency and will likely turn to Ahmad Bradshaw as their No. 2 back. Rookie Andre Brown and holdover Danny Ware are competing for the third tailback role.
GM Jerry Reese anticipates Jacobs' workload increasing, and Jacobs envisions seeing five or so more carries per game with Ward gone. Because of Jacobs' injury history (he's missed eight games since '06 and pulled out of countless others due to nagging "nicks"), we still found it difficult to project a major workload increase. Gregg Rosenthal gives Jacobs 225 carries. Jacobs set a career high with 219 in 2008.
Reese wasn't so specific about a carry projection for Jacobs, so let's take a look at The Train's personal goal and see if it's in the Giants' best interest.
In his two-year stint as the Giants' lead back, Jacobs averages 17.5 carries per game. He wants five more per week. Because Jacobs has had multiple 21-carry games in his career, we'll use that number to divide past performances.
Games of 21 or more carries (9): 969 yards, 4.68 YPC, 8 RUSH TDs
Games of fewer than 21 carries (15): 1129 yards, 5.28 YPC, 11 RUSH TDs
This, of course, doesn't account for games where Jacobs was playing at less than 100 percent, although some would argue that no running back is at full strength in-season. You can also argue that it's natural for a running back to slow down over the course of a game when seeing 20+ carries.
Still, the numbers show that Jacobs is considerably more effective when he isn't crossing the 21-carry threshold. We like Jacobs to finish as a top-12 non-PPR back for the second straight year (and just barely in the top-20 for PPR), but wouldn't bet on a major carries increase.
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