Projecting The Train's Carry Total
Brandon Jacobs has averaged an outstanding 95.6 rushing yards per start over the last two seasons. His YPC over that span is a robust 4.98 and he's scored 21 touchdowns in 24 games.
The Giants let Derrick Ward walk in free agency and will likely turn to Ahmad Bradshaw as their No. 2 back. Rookie Andre Brown and holdover Danny Ware are competing for the third tailback role.
GM Jerry Reese anticipates Jacobs' workload increasing, and Jacobs envisions seeing five or so more carries per game with Ward gone. Because of Jacobs' injury history (he's missed eight games since '06 and pulled out of countless others due to nagging "nicks"), we still found it difficult to project a major workload increase. Gregg Rosenthal gives Jacobs 225 carries. Jacobs set a career high with 219 in 2008.
Reese wasn't so specific about a carry projection for Jacobs, so let's take a look at The Train's personal goal and see if it's in the Giants' best interest.
In his two-year stint as the Giants' lead back, Jacobs averages 17.5 carries per game. He wants five more per week. Because Jacobs has had multiple 21-carry games in his career, we'll use that number to divide past performances.
Games of 21 or more carries (9): 969 yards, 4.68 YPC, 8 RUSH TDs
Games of fewer than 21 carries (15): 1129 yards, 5.28 YPC, 11 RUSH TDs
This, of course, doesn't account for games where Jacobs was playing at less than 100 percent, although some would argue that no running back is at full strength in-season. You can also argue that it's natural for a running back to slow down over the course of a game when seeing 20+ carries.
Still, the numbers show that Jacobs is considerably more effective when he isn't crossing the 21-carry threshold. We like Jacobs to finish as a top-12 non-PPR back for the second straight year (and just barely in the top-20 for PPR), but wouldn't bet on a major carries increase.
Comments
Is this the same Bradshaw who couldn't beat out Ward for carries last season? I say Andre Brown deserves a close look in those late rounds as a flier, because he could pick up that 2nd RB spot, and everyone knows on the Gnts that means 1k yards.
Posted by: will | June 11, 2009 11:20 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/boxing/news/story?id=4249114
Seriously?
Posted by: Davie Ricky | June 12, 2009 09:28 AM
I'll second "will" in that the Giants' backup RB situation is far from settled. Bradshaw is sitting in the #2 spot right now, and he is one of the best home-run threats in the offense. But if his mediocre blocking and fumbling problems don't improve, he could easily be passed on the depth chart and relegated to spot duty like he was last season.
Will mentioned Andre Brown as a canditate (and he is), but Danny Ware deserves a mention as well. He's essentially Derrick Ward 2.0-- an unheralded player they snatched from the Jets' taxi squad and have coached up over the past two seasons. As a tougher runner than Bradshaw and Brown, he could end up as Jacobs' injury replacement even if he doesn't win the 'change-of-pace' role.
Personally, I'd avoid all of the Giants backup RBs until later in Camp/Preseason when it's a bit clearer which one of them will get the most work.
Posted by: Enoch | June 12, 2009 10:50 AM
I like Andre Brown to emerge when Jacobs gets hurt, and start to eat into some of those carries once injuries start to pile up.
It may sound like a good plan at first, giving him 22 carries, but he's too tall, and it's only a matter of time he gets his knee caught up in a pile.
Brown has the speed, power, strength, and size to be an effective starter in this league, NY didn't need him but they saw something...I'm going to monitor him late, and especially 2nd round rookie drafts.
Posted by: Chris R. | June 12, 2009 09:20 PM
I'm not sure the number in the article really show that he's "considerably more effective" with fewer than 21 carries per game. Extending both out over a 16 game season, the 21+ numbers would give him over 1700 yards and 14 TDs, while the under 21 numbers would give him 1200 yard and just under 12 TDs. For FF purposes, I don't care what his YPC is. I realize carrying 21+ times may lead to more injuries, but it's not accurate to say that the numbers in this article prove he's more effective on fewer carries.
Posted by: david | June 15, 2009 12:51 PM
I'm not sure the numbers in the article really show that he's "considerably more effective" with fewer than 21 carries per game. Extending both out over a 16 game season, the 21+ numbers would give him over 1700 yards and 14 TDs, while the under 21 numbers would give him 1200 yard and just under 12 TDs. For FF purposes, I don't care what his YPC is. I realize carrying 21+ times may lead to more injuries, but it's not accurate to say that the numbers in this article prove he's more effective on fewer carries.
Posted by: david | June 15, 2009 12:51 PM
I'm not sure the numbers in the article really show that he's "considerably more effective" with fewer than 21 carries per game. Extending both out over a 16 game season, the 21+ numbers would give him over 1700 yards and 14 TDs, while the under 21 numbers would give him 1200 yard and just under 12 TDs. For FF purposes, I don't care what his YPC is. I realize carrying 21+ times may lead to more injuries, but it's not accurate to say that the numbers in this article prove he's more effective on fewer carries.
Posted by: david | June 15, 2009 12:51 PM