Projecting The Train's Carry Total
Brandon Jacobs has averaged an outstanding 95.6 rushing yards per start over the last two seasons. His YPC over that span is a robust 4.98 and he's scored 21 touchdowns in 24 games.
The Giants let Derrick Ward walk in free agency and will likely turn to Ahmad Bradshaw as their No. 2 back. Rookie Andre Brown and holdover Danny Ware are competing for the third tailback role.
GM Jerry Reese anticipates Jacobs' workload increasing, and Jacobs envisions seeing five or so more carries per game with Ward gone. Because of Jacobs' injury history (he's missed eight games since '06 and pulled out of countless others due to nagging "nicks"), we still found it difficult to project a major workload increase. Gregg Rosenthal gives Jacobs 225 carries. Jacobs set a career high with 219 in 2008.
Reese wasn't so specific about a carry projection for Jacobs, so let's take a look at The Train's personal goal and see if it's in the Giants' best interest.
In his two-year stint as the Giants' lead back, Jacobs averages 17.5 carries per game. He wants five more per week. Because Jacobs has had multiple 21-carry games in his career, we'll use that number to divide past performances.
Games of 21 or more carries (9): 969 yards, 4.68 YPC, 8 RUSH TDs
Games of fewer than 21 carries (15): 1129 yards, 5.28 YPC, 11 RUSH TDs
This, of course, doesn't account for games where Jacobs was playing at less than 100 percent, although some would argue that no running back is at full strength in-season. You can also argue that it's natural for a running back to slow down over the course of a game when seeing 20+ carries.
Still, the numbers show that Jacobs is considerably more effective when he isn't crossing the 21-carry threshold. We like Jacobs to finish as a top-12 non-PPR back for the second straight year (and just barely in the top-20 for PPR), but wouldn't bet on a major carries increase.
Comments
As long as 1-2 of those carries are for touchdowns each game, it really doesn't matter if he gets more carries. The important thing is that he stays healthy, which is why I agree that he should stay around the 15-20 carries a game level.
If the Giants were smart, they would mix Bradshaw in often earlier in games, and then feed it to Jacobs steady in the 4th when the D is worn down. He'd be unstoppable.
Posted by: Reaper | June 11, 2009 03:43 PM
Brandon Jacobs is one of the most effective rushers in the NFL. This news does increase his injury risk some, but with it comes an increase in TD totals which could be through the roof.
The G-Men just inked him to a 4 year deal. They are going to work hard to keep him healthy, despite a few more carries.
Great news for his immediate value, but his Dynasty value takes a bit of a hit. We've got BJ ranked as our 16 ranked Dynasty RB.
Posted by: BeastOrBust | June 11, 2009 03:58 PM
Jacobs is oging in the late first early second rd. The guy who you want is Bradshaw. When Jacobs goes down with the injury--and it's a matter of "when" not "if"-- Bradshaw will step in and, for two-three games,give you #1 RB production. AShiuld Jacobs suffer a more serious injury, Bradshaw who may be availabel inthe 7th or 8th rds becomes a steal.
Posted by: thart | June 11, 2009 04:05 PM
thart (nice name) - unless andre brown takes the GL carries.
Posted by: evan | June 11, 2009 04:25 PM
The way Brandon Jacobs disrespects defensive backs on Sunday is one of the few things that gets me out of bed in the morning.
The guy is an injury magnet and has hands that were mined directly from a quarry, but watching him topple a cornerback for a 17 yard gain is a thing of beauty.
If he's chilling in the second round, you can bet your ass he'll be on my roster. There's that chance he'll only play 10 games in the season, but when he does play he's one of the best in the business.
Posted by: Davie Ricky | June 11, 2009 04:33 PM
That brief analysis of Jacob's production does not take into account a very important factor: game situation. It's important to ask WHY he had more carries in some games than in others. If during close, tough games the Giants leaned on him more, then we'd expect that his carries would be higher, but his yards per carry would be lower in those games. If they pulled him after three quarters of dominating a terrible team with only 15 carries to prevent injury, then we'd expect those numbers to be higher.
I'm not saying that this is definitely the reason for the splits, but I'm saying that just diving up his production by number of carries without paying any attention to the game situation that led to that number of carries is dangerously misleading. As someone who I can't remember right now once said, "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics."
Posted by: Darron | June 11, 2009 04:55 PM
I believe those numbers are tainted. Shouldn't you look at the caliber of the defense? In games against weak opponents where jacobs had big numbers, they would rest him and put ward in late in the game. Against tough d's that were stuffing the run, jacobs would get more carries in those tighter games. And what back in the league has a better ypc when they go over 20 attempts?
Posted by: michael | June 11, 2009 06:31 PM