Hard Hitten' Witten can be a TD Maker
Jason Witten finished as the TE1 overall in 2007 and the TE2 in 2008. He is established as an elite fantasy commodity. Witten is the most complete tight end in the league, and with Terrell Owens gone, will be Tony Romo's go-to weapon in crucial situations.
The only hole in Witten's game -- and this, admittedly, is being overly picky -- is his touchdown production. He's never scored more than seven TDs in a season, and found the end zone just four times in 2008.
This is where the loss of Owens projects to benefit Witten the most.
In 2008, Witten saw a disturbingly low 6 red-zone targets. Owens dominated Tony Romo's eye inside opposing 20-yard lines, leading Dallas with 17 pass attempts.
In 2007, Witten was the one pacing Dallas pass catchers in red-zone looks with 17. Owens had 16. Witten scored his career-high 7 touchdowns in this year.
In 2006, Owens finished seventh in the NFL with 21 red-zone targets. Witten saw just 11, scoring once.
While T.O.'s old red-zone targets aren't guaranteed to all be passed on to Witten, it's pretty safe to say Witten should resume seeing somewhere in the range of 15-20 targets inside the opponents' 20. Witten's red-zone efficiency since 2004 (57.4% on 54 targets) compares favorably to Roy E. Williams' (50.0% on 56 targets).
No matter how you slice it, Witten was going to be among our top-three fantasy tight ends for the 2009 season. With more high-scoring potential than ever, we were very comfortable ranking Witten No. 1.
Comments
Chris R said it first! Bennett is going to be very heavily involved in Dallas' scheme. I am inclined to agree and think Dallas will have many 2 TE sets to make opponents think run, force a safety on Bennett, and let him beat him. Witten has such strong success because teams can't just count TO out. Maybe the same with Roy Williams, but probably not. I don't think Roy will command the same defensive attention that TO did. I'm not going to say that Witten is going to fall off, but I like a handful of TE's better this season. I hope someone like you in my league spends a third rounder on Witten. I'll be able to snag that much better of a WR or RB!
Posted by: Ryan | June 11, 2009 01:23 AM
On the stock market comments:
Stock selections, or games, could be subject to SEC regulations. Before starting any venture of this sort, it would be best to get legal advice.
Another constraint with stock comments is regulation. Before posting a comment about a stock, the company's compliance department would have to review the post, send it back to the writer, get it re-written, and the writer would send for approval again. This process could take days, and takes the timeliness away -- then you are posting old news.
I have Wall Street money management firm, and have to follow numerous rules and regulations in everything I do. I am as good at stocks as Rotoworld is at fantasy football, and can tell you it is much easier (and fun) to operate a fantasy site than it is to manage a stock research site.
Posted by: David Sharek | June 11, 2009 09:56 AM
Dont know what people are saying when they find it difficult to rate a TE when drafting. for me its as simple as math. Project catches, say 60-70. Compare to other players similar territory then add draft spots due to scarcity of position. Done!!
Posted by: abruzzi | June 11, 2009 12:14 PM
Ryan and Chris R -
Unless you've already purchased the Rotoworld Draft Mag (which I don't even have myself), I'm not sure where you've found our "rankings" for tight ends. Also, I'm quite sure you haven't seen them, because if you had you'd know that we project Martellus Bennett quite high.
Among TEs that are backups to every-down tight ends on their own teams, no one is ranked higher than Martellus Bennett. We have him as a TE2, and recommend in Bennett's player profile to immediately pick him up if Jason Witten gets injured. Bennett would be an every-week fantasy starter in that scenario.
We are very high on Bennett's talent. However, he is still very much a work in progress as a blocker and will likely be relegated to third-down duties like a typical pass-catching TE off the bench.
Posted by: evan | June 11, 2009 12:30 PM
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Posted by: Qxnmzpzl | July 14, 2009 05:13 AM
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Posted by: Qxnmzpzl | July 14, 2009 05:14 AM
Damn, that sound's so easy if you think about it.
Posted by: Bingo_RED | July 16, 2009 05:59 PM