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Hard Hitten' Witten can be a TD Maker

Jason Witten finished as the TE1 overall in 2007 and the TE2 in 2008. He is established as an elite fantasy commodity. Witten is the most complete tight end in the league, and with Terrell Owens gone, will be Tony Romo's go-to weapon in crucial situations.

The only hole in Witten's game -- and this, admittedly, is being overly picky -- is his touchdown production. He's never scored more than seven TDs in a season, and found the end zone just four times in 2008.

This is where the loss of Owens projects to benefit Witten the most.

In 2008, Witten saw a disturbingly low 6 red-zone targets. Owens dominated Tony Romo's eye inside opposing 20-yard lines, leading Dallas with 17 pass attempts.

In 2007, Witten was the one pacing Dallas pass catchers in red-zone looks with 17. Owens had 16. Witten scored his career-high 7 touchdowns in this year.

In 2006, Owens finished seventh in the NFL with 21 red-zone targets. Witten saw just 11, scoring once.

While T.O.'s old red-zone targets aren't guaranteed to all be passed on to Witten, it's pretty safe to say Witten should resume seeing somewhere in the range of 15-20 targets inside the opponents' 20. Witten's red-zone efficiency since 2004 (57.4% on 54 targets) compares favorably to Roy E. Williams' (50.0% on 56 targets).

No matter how you slice it, Witten was going to be among our top-three fantasy tight ends for the 2009 season. With more high-scoring potential than ever, we were very comfortable ranking Witten No. 1.

Comments

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Always tough to work top TE's into your draft strategy. Evan, which WR's are you drafting Witten ahead of?

I'd take WRs like Boldin, Bowe, T.O., Ocho Cinco, and probably Braylon Edwards ahead of Hard Hitten'. I'd take Witten before Lee Evans, Wes Welker, Anthony Gonzalez, and Antonio Bryant.

Witten is a quality mid to late third-round pick in a 12-team draft.

Witten's overall targets could also dramatically rise making him a PPR beast.

Evan, I have an off topic question for you guys. Are there any plans to introduce any new fantasy games through Rotoworld or the partnership with NBC?

I've played the 100K Challenge, Snapdraft, NFFC, and the ProFootballWeekly/Rotohog Stock Market game, and while I enjoy them all, the Stock Market version is easily the most fun and most addictive.

There are a couple of huge advantages to this format.

1. Page views. I love 100K Challenge, but I check the page once or twice a week. While it's fun to plot out a year's strategy, there's really not that much to do on a weekly basis. And for fantasy fanatics, finishing in the top 5000 is not difficult (and doing well in the playoffs is probably even more heavily luck-based than other fantasy formats).

On the other hand, I probably check the Stock Market page two or three hundred times a week. Since you can use any player you want and the values are always shifting, there is always strategy to think about. Plus, during the week when games aren't being played, if you have a serious NFL/fantasy illness, simply checking to see how your team value is doing provides a way to "keep score". (The secondary strategy elements of the market - trying to buy low, sell high, and maximize team value in order to afford more studs than the next player - adds in another exciting element that all other games lack, and creates an insane number of page views.)

2. Fantasy content.

The stock market format provides a much more complex situation for evaluating players on a weekly basis. It is important to have a full sense of individual player rankings at each position, a sense of value at each position, and a sense of trade-off value between having a stud at one position versus another.

Rotoworld is the easily the best of the major fantasy sites in projecting players. While the Snapdraft concept captures some of the same elements, a major stock market contest would be a goldmine in terms of producing legitimately interesting weekly - even daily - columns. (Strangely, ProFootballWeekly doesn't capitalize on this. Their fantasy content is half-hearted at best.)

There is a huge difference in the visibility level between NBC's 100K Challenge and Rotohog's Stock Market Game. If the Stock Market format was brought to the NBC stage with a legitimate pot, I think it would be a instant phenomenon potentially dwarfing any other fantasy system.

NBC could tweak the concept to emphasize the Sunday night players (perhaps creating a secondary market for Sunday Night players). Like many of the high stakes individual leagues, it could even tie the two contests together with a million dollar bonus for anyone who won both (a feat that would essentially be impossible and probably wouldn't cost that much to insure).

Many of the individual high stakes leagues refer to one of their formats as the "Main Event". If NBC were to bill their stock market game as the FANTASY FOOTBALL MAIN EVENT, I really believe it would become the #1 game in all of fantasy almost instantly.

Anyway, I'm sure there are tons of logistical issues/problems with setting something like that up, but the idea is so much stronger than any other - both conceptually and from an excitement perspective - that I want to keep bringing it to your attention.

Keep up the great work guys. As I've said, this is easily the best of the major fantasy sites.

Dude -

As always you make very good, interesting points. This is for someone else to answer, but I'm sure they'll see it here.

No stock market plans - would be tough to implement this year. I will check out their game and mention it to higher ups, but honestly stock market or salary cap games have traditionally had a tougher time catching on.

That said - i like the format personally quite a bit.

Hey Evan, Gregg, thanks for the feedback.

I believe stock market formats may have experienced limited success in the past. 2009 (or 2010) might be a different story, however. Fantasy football has just reached such a critical mass.

I especially believe fantasy diehards are looking for games where they can compete against everybody else in the industry on a playing field that is inherently fair and with a concept that is incredibly robust.

I'm also not certain what the daily page views are for Rotoworld, but I have a hard time believing if you guys pushed the concept hard that it wouldn't take off. The huge market for fantasy content underscores the interest people have not only in playing fantasy football but in reading about it. What you guys choose to write about almost certainly goes a long way in determining what readers/players will have enthusiasm for. (For example, you could do a Monday column suggesting which players should be targeted when the market opens Tuesday and at what prices; then a Thursday column ranking players with their price as a huge element in their value.)

Okay, sorry for writing so much. Don't sell yourselves short in the potential for making this concept. The World Series of Poker Main Event labored in relative obscurity for many years before it reached a critical mass and exploded. Fantasy football would seem to me at least to have even more potential.

Sorry guys, Witten won't be reaching 10 TD's.


It's quite simple, his name is Martellus Bennett, he's HEAVILY underrated by you guys in TE rankings(for some reasons even though he scored 4 TD's you guys are ranking him behind rookie TE's who are still hurt).


Follow along with the cowboys, their using Marty b alot more, going two TE's almost every time, he's the TD machine, while Witten racks up the receptions, 10 TD's is just crazy talk.


Bennett will get more TD's then Witten and show how underrated he really is according to you guys.


Crazy talk? He had more TD's then Witten last year, this was as a rookie, still learning, now their opening up things for him and giving him plenty of targets, if anyone comes close to 10 TD's it'll be him but for some reason you guys continue to overlook him in your rankings which baffles me.

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