Could this finally be Jerious' Year?
Donald Brown, Jerome Harrison, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Bernard Scott, and Shonn Greene have all been discussed here and are among the most popular sleeper "backups" in fantasy football. Jerious Norwood has curiously gotten little airtime, but there's a whole lot to like about his situation:
1. Michael Turner is facing the 370 Curse. As Bill Barnwell explains in the 2009 Rotoworld Draft Guide (available today), backs crossing the 370-carry threshold (or 390 carries including the playoffs) tend to get injured or experience a massive production drop the following season. Turner led the NFL with 377 regular season carries last year and had 18 more in Atlanta's first-round playoff loss. Larry Johnson (2007) and Shaun Alexander (2006) were the latest victims of the Curse of 370. If Turner gets hurt, Norwood will be the Falcons' starter.
2. Norwood is a proven producer. Norwood averages a scintillating 6.6 yards per touch for his career. His career per-carry average is 5.8, and he led the NFL in 2007 with a 6.0 YPC. Despite being a clear-cut backup and averaging only 125 annual touches, Norwood has been a top-43 fantasy back in each of his three seasons. He scored six all-purpose touchdowns and was the non-PPR RB37 overall (a borderline RB3) in 2008 despite getting the rock just 131 times. Norwood can be more than a third-down specialist.
3. Atlanta is all but certain to throw more in Matt Ryan's sophomore season, and Tony Gonzalez's acquisition supports this. Norwood is the club's go-to back on passing downs. He had 36 receptions to Turner's 6 last year. The Falcons throw more = Norwood plays more.
4. Norwood is in a contract year. He'll collect $535K in the last season of his rookie deal. Contract years don't always lead to big seasons, but the extra motivation can't hurt. He'll be campaigning for starter's money in 2010.
5. The Falcons have showed faith in Norwood despite being a holdover from the Jim Mora and Bobby Petrino regimes, at least as an oft-used change of pace back. Turner was signed to be the starter, but GM Tom Dimitroff has since only added late-round kick return prospect Thomas Brown and 30-year-old retread Verron Haynes. Norwood's spot on the depth chart is secure and his usage did not dwindle under the new Mike Smith coaching staff.
6. There are already strong indications that Norwood will play more, specifically from a spring report on ESPN.com. NFC South blogger Pat Yasinkas wrote the following about Norwood on May 12:
I definitely noticed Norwood getting some first-team work as the Falcons rested Michael Turner some. It was only a minicamp, but I think that's a sign of things to come. I had one high-ranking person with the Falcons tell me, "The last thing we want is Michael having to carry 375 times again."
He obviously needs an injury to truly matter, but considering the risk Turner presents this year, Norwood's 15th-round Average Draft Position seems awfully low.
Comments
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