Could this finally be Jerious' Year?
Donald Brown, Jerome Harrison, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Bernard Scott, and Shonn Greene have all been discussed here and are among the most popular sleeper "backups" in fantasy football. Jerious Norwood has curiously gotten little airtime, but there's a whole lot to like about his situation:
1. Michael Turner is facing the 370 Curse. As Bill Barnwell explains in the 2009 Rotoworld Draft Guide (available today), backs crossing the 370-carry threshold (or 390 carries including the playoffs) tend to get injured or experience a massive production drop the following season. Turner led the NFL with 377 regular season carries last year and had 18 more in Atlanta's first-round playoff loss. Larry Johnson (2007) and Shaun Alexander (2006) were the latest victims of the Curse of 370. If Turner gets hurt, Norwood will be the Falcons' starter.
2. Norwood is a proven producer. Norwood averages a scintillating 6.6 yards per touch for his career. His career per-carry average is 5.8, and he led the NFL in 2007 with a 6.0 YPC. Despite being a clear-cut backup and averaging only 125 annual touches, Norwood has been a top-43 fantasy back in each of his three seasons. He scored six all-purpose touchdowns and was the non-PPR RB37 overall (a borderline RB3) in 2008 despite getting the rock just 131 times. Norwood can be more than a third-down specialist.
3. Atlanta is all but certain to throw more in Matt Ryan's sophomore season, and Tony Gonzalez's acquisition supports this. Norwood is the club's go-to back on passing downs. He had 36 receptions to Turner's 6 last year. The Falcons throw more = Norwood plays more.
4. Norwood is in a contract year. He'll collect $535K in the last season of his rookie deal. Contract years don't always lead to big seasons, but the extra motivation can't hurt. He'll be campaigning for starter's money in 2010.
5. The Falcons have showed faith in Norwood despite being a holdover from the Jim Mora and Bobby Petrino regimes, at least as an oft-used change of pace back. Turner was signed to be the starter, but GM Tom Dimitroff has since only added late-round kick return prospect Thomas Brown and 30-year-old retread Verron Haynes. Norwood's spot on the depth chart is secure and his usage did not dwindle under the new Mike Smith coaching staff.
6. There are already strong indications that Norwood will play more, specifically from a spring report on ESPN.com. NFC South blogger Pat Yasinkas wrote the following about Norwood on May 12:
I definitely noticed Norwood getting some first-team work as the Falcons rested Michael Turner some. It was only a minicamp, but I think that's a sign of things to come. I had one high-ranking person with the Falcons tell me, "The last thing we want is Michael having to carry 375 times again."
He obviously needs an injury to truly matter, but considering the risk Turner presents this year, Norwood's 15th-round Average Draft Position seems awfully low.
Comments
Pac, I think we're saying the same thing. Guys with RB/WR value who also contribute on special teams get paid (mainly if not predominantly because of their RB/WR work, not their special teams work, unless they are Hesteresque). Guys who are special teams value only don't get paid. As a result, I question a fantasy scoring system in which their fantasy value is disproportionately greater than their NFL value (I don't expect or necessarily even want perfect correlation between the two, but if it gets disproportionate, it gets silly). The idea of adding a "special teams player" with his own (small) scoring value to a fantasy lineup does intrigue me some. Just so long as his scoring doesn't make him more important than a fantasy RB. (As an example, it drives me crazy when kicker scoring ends up being more important than skill position scoring.)
Posted by: veggieb | June 26, 2009 03:53 PM
BTW - Reggie Bush is ranked #36 RB in my non-KR yards league. He was a top 3 RB til he got hurt (hard to say he wasn't a top 3 actual NFL back til then too), but still finished #28. I bet the Bush owners in your leagues would love his three punt return TDs to be worth something... they sure helped the Saints.
Posted by: Pac_Eddy | June 26, 2009 03:56 PM
I apologize if I was too sensitive regarding posts about Pac_Eddy's league. However, I did like the reasoned discussions that followed regarding why some of you guys didn't like the KR yardage scoring system.
That's what I like to see here, too - the thoughtful discussions and differences of opinion that are usually found on these boards. I felt that kind of discussion was being cut off with some of the earlier comments.
Thanks guys, for explaining your thoughts more fully, and for excusing my bit of sensitivity there.
Posted by: arbee | June 26, 2009 06:20 PM
I apologize if I was too sensitive regarding posts about Pac_Eddy's league. However, I did like the reasoned discussions that followed regarding why some of you guys didn't like the KR yardage scoring system.
That's what I like to see here, too - the thoughtful discussions and differences of opinion that are usually found on these boards. I felt that kind of discussion was being cut off with some of the earlier comments.
Thanks guys, for explaining your thoughts more fully, and for excusing my bit of sensitivity there.
Posted by: arbee | June 26, 2009 06:22 PM
I also apologize for the (dreaded) double post!!!
Posted by: arbee | June 26, 2009 06:25 PM
♫... and caaaannnn you feel the love tooonnnnniiiiggghhhhtttt!!!♫
Posted by: Davie Ricky | June 29, 2009 09:14 AM
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Posted by: Zootxcgh | July 13, 2009 11:26 AM