Could this finally be Jerious' Year?
Donald Brown, Jerome Harrison, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Bernard Scott, and Shonn Greene have all been discussed here and are among the most popular sleeper "backups" in fantasy football. Jerious Norwood has curiously gotten little airtime, but there's a whole lot to like about his situation:
1. Michael Turner is facing the 370 Curse. As Bill Barnwell explains in the 2009 Rotoworld Draft Guide (available today), backs crossing the 370-carry threshold (or 390 carries including the playoffs) tend to get injured or experience a massive production drop the following season. Turner led the NFL with 377 regular season carries last year and had 18 more in Atlanta's first-round playoff loss. Larry Johnson (2007) and Shaun Alexander (2006) were the latest victims of the Curse of 370. If Turner gets hurt, Norwood will be the Falcons' starter.
2. Norwood is a proven producer. Norwood averages a scintillating 6.6 yards per touch for his career. His career per-carry average is 5.8, and he led the NFL in 2007 with a 6.0 YPC. Despite being a clear-cut backup and averaging only 125 annual touches, Norwood has been a top-43 fantasy back in each of his three seasons. He scored six all-purpose touchdowns and was the non-PPR RB37 overall (a borderline RB3) in 2008 despite getting the rock just 131 times. Norwood can be more than a third-down specialist.
3. Atlanta is all but certain to throw more in Matt Ryan's sophomore season, and Tony Gonzalez's acquisition supports this. Norwood is the club's go-to back on passing downs. He had 36 receptions to Turner's 6 last year. The Falcons throw more = Norwood plays more.
4. Norwood is in a contract year. He'll collect $535K in the last season of his rookie deal. Contract years don't always lead to big seasons, but the extra motivation can't hurt. He'll be campaigning for starter's money in 2010.
5. The Falcons have showed faith in Norwood despite being a holdover from the Jim Mora and Bobby Petrino regimes, at least as an oft-used change of pace back. Turner was signed to be the starter, but GM Tom Dimitroff has since only added late-round kick return prospect Thomas Brown and 30-year-old retread Verron Haynes. Norwood's spot on the depth chart is secure and his usage did not dwindle under the new Mike Smith coaching staff.
6. There are already strong indications that Norwood will play more, specifically from a spring report on ESPN.com. NFC South blogger Pat Yasinkas wrote the following about Norwood on May 12:
I definitely noticed Norwood getting some first-team work as the Falcons rested Michael Turner some. It was only a minicamp, but I think that's a sign of things to come. I had one high-ranking person with the Falcons tell me, "The last thing we want is Michael having to carry 375 times again."
He obviously needs an injury to truly matter, but considering the risk Turner presents this year, Norwood's 15th-round Average Draft Position seems awfully low.
Comments
Geez, guys... if someone wants to play in a league that rewards return yardage points, why is that something to insult and denigrate? (i.e., "You play in a league with special teams YARDAGE? What's next, pass attempts? How about a point for each time a guy runs the correct route?" OR "The fact that Norwood was ahead of LeRon McLain, Jonathan Stewart, Reggie Bush and Ryan Grant says all you need to know about your scoring system.")
It's his league, and it's not like he's going head-to-head against your league and taking your money.
This is a "Fantasy Football" website after all, not a U.N. conference on Third World living conditions. Lighten up.
If a guy can't come and post his opinion here without being insulted because his league's "scoring system" doesn't pass your smell test... geez.
Posted by: arbee | June 26, 2009 10:47 AM
for the record, all my comments about Norwood assumed that there was no scoring for special teams yardage. in my kind of league, there's no way that Norwood can be a flex play.
Posted by: veggieb | June 26, 2009 11:20 AM
But Gregg, wasn't Norwood virtually given the chance already to be a No. 1? He failed, so they went out and got Turner... Do you believe Norwood might become a No. 1 somewhere in 2010? If so he might be a good pick-and-stash in dynasty leagues this year...
Posted by: Plain Joe | June 26, 2009 11:49 AM
If Pac_Eddy, or anyone else for that matter, has viewed my comments as personal insults, then consider me as apologetic as I am confused. I don't believe in personal attacks for differences of opinion, and haven't made my posts from that perspective.
As you mention, arbee, this is indeed a Fantasy Football website. That's why FFL junkies (like me) come to these blogs to post their thoughts and share their differing views on these blogs. The well considered and well reasoned contributions of regulars (scottc, veggieb and The Dude Abides come to mind) have often given me food for thought and enhanced my FFL experience ... and usually when I don't agree with them. I've been contributing with the impression that some posters (like me) appreciate it when someone offers something coherent.
Posted by: Juggs | June 26, 2009 12:41 PM
Juggs, it's all good, man. You've said nothing insulting.
Of course I'm biased because I agree with you. If Norwood is scoring more than Reggie Bush, Ryan Grant, LeRon McLain, and Jonathan Stewart, that is one wacky ass scoring system.
Pac_Eddy, let me put it to you this way. It's fine to figure out a way to add a category like special team return yards. But as someone mentioned, maybe you should have a special teams player as a way of doing it. Presumably there should be a correlation between NFL value and fantasy value, and in the NFL most returners are paid like they are a dime a dozen. Someone can check but I don't think the human joystick was paid much, as he couldn't do squat as a WR. Hester is showing promise as a WR so he would be different. But if the NFL doesn't see fit to pay these guys much, then presumably it's because their skill is not that special, so it would be kinda weird if they were overvalued in fantasy.
Put another way, overvaluing return yards can lead to the wacky result of a kick returner being awfully valuable even if he is not that good but just because his defense gives up a ton of scores and he's their main returner. Because even some plodding fullback types used on returns (and i always wondered why some teams use plodding fullback types, but that's a different conversation) can get 25 yard returns. Do it enough times and suddenly you're as good as Reggie Bush?
Posted by: veggieb | June 26, 2009 01:23 PM
The biggest problem with Norwood is his body. The guy is lightning quick and has sub 4.4 speed, but his chicken legs leave a lot to be desired when he is running it up the gut. Norwood is, and will always be, best suited for getting the ball no more than 15 times a game. If Turner goes down, it is likely that Norwood would start but only get about 60-70% of the carries with Brown/Snelling getting the other portion. He is definitely worth owning as a weak RB2/RB3, but I don't think Norwood will ever put up RB1 numbers.
Posted by: Jay | June 26, 2009 01:31 PM
Gents
FYI - I do not take any personal offense to the questions and comments about my scoring system. Same as you - I learn more from opposing views than supporting.
Veggie - have LeRon McClain, Lendale White and those up-the-middle power backs been paid? Probably not as well as Leon Washington, Darren Sproles, Devin Hester and Jerious Norwood have been or will be compensated.
I think special teams points is the most accurate way to translate the NFL's value of these guys. You are correct; players whose impact is mostly special teams tend to not get paid. Dante Hall and Brian Mitchell come to mind. We'll see how much Josh Cribbs lands as he's yet to be an offensive factor. They'll have to make him a better WR to justify a lot of guaranteed money.
That said, I agree that Norwood, without special teams play, is not a great flex play. He also will never be a #1 or #2 fantasy back.
Whew.
Posted by: Pac_Eddy | June 26, 2009 02:43 PM