Could this finally be Jerious' Year?
Donald Brown, Jerome Harrison, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Bernard Scott, and Shonn Greene have all been discussed here and are among the most popular sleeper "backups" in fantasy football. Jerious Norwood has curiously gotten little airtime, but there's a whole lot to like about his situation:
1. Michael Turner is facing the 370 Curse. As Bill Barnwell explains in the 2009 Rotoworld Draft Guide (available today), backs crossing the 370-carry threshold (or 390 carries including the playoffs) tend to get injured or experience a massive production drop the following season. Turner led the NFL with 377 regular season carries last year and had 18 more in Atlanta's first-round playoff loss. Larry Johnson (2007) and Shaun Alexander (2006) were the latest victims of the Curse of 370. If Turner gets hurt, Norwood will be the Falcons' starter.
2. Norwood is a proven producer. Norwood averages a scintillating 6.6 yards per touch for his career. His career per-carry average is 5.8, and he led the NFL in 2007 with a 6.0 YPC. Despite being a clear-cut backup and averaging only 125 annual touches, Norwood has been a top-43 fantasy back in each of his three seasons. He scored six all-purpose touchdowns and was the non-PPR RB37 overall (a borderline RB3) in 2008 despite getting the rock just 131 times. Norwood can be more than a third-down specialist.
3. Atlanta is all but certain to throw more in Matt Ryan's sophomore season, and Tony Gonzalez's acquisition supports this. Norwood is the club's go-to back on passing downs. He had 36 receptions to Turner's 6 last year. The Falcons throw more = Norwood plays more.
4. Norwood is in a contract year. He'll collect $535K in the last season of his rookie deal. Contract years don't always lead to big seasons, but the extra motivation can't hurt. He'll be campaigning for starter's money in 2010.
5. The Falcons have showed faith in Norwood despite being a holdover from the Jim Mora and Bobby Petrino regimes, at least as an oft-used change of pace back. Turner was signed to be the starter, but GM Tom Dimitroff has since only added late-round kick return prospect Thomas Brown and 30-year-old retread Verron Haynes. Norwood's spot on the depth chart is secure and his usage did not dwindle under the new Mike Smith coaching staff.
6. There are already strong indications that Norwood will play more, specifically from a spring report on ESPN.com. NFC South blogger Pat Yasinkas wrote the following about Norwood on May 12:
I definitely noticed Norwood getting some first-team work as the Falcons rested Michael Turner some. It was only a minicamp, but I think that's a sign of things to come. I had one high-ranking person with the Falcons tell me, "The last thing we want is Michael having to carry 375 times again."
He obviously needs an injury to truly matter, but considering the risk Turner presents this year, Norwood's 15th-round Average Draft Position seems awfully low.
Comments
Gettin pretty heated in this b#tch... What's Rosenthugg gotta say??
Posted by: Davie Ricky | June 25, 2009 04:51 PM
Having individual kick return yardage is unique? What do you all do for return TDs? Do you not credit Reggie Bush or Norwood with those scores? Giving them a few pts thru return yardage is a good way to properly value them.
Posted by: Pac_Eddy | June 25, 2009 04:55 PM
I'm not saying it's unique. I'm saying it's taking things too far, and for no other reason than to take them SOMEwhere.
Everyone has their own personal line in the sand between what they consider appropriate, essential and relevant and what they consider ridiculous, unnecessary and specious. It's the same personal line in the sand that makes me shake my head every time a receiver thumps his chest and looks for the cameras when he makes a "tough" catch for a 6 yard gain on 3rd and 10.
Posted by: Juggs | June 25, 2009 05:23 PM
I remember when leagues first started using rush/pass/receiving yards. There were "purists" who resisted that at first, but eventually agreed it was an improvement.
Adding kick return yards is a better way to reflect a player's value in fantasy football (my leagues uses 1pt/25 yards), just as adding rush/pass/receiving yards was an improvement.
Does your league score passing tds by a non-qb? Of course. Why ignore someone's special teams accomplishments.
I suggest you try it. It adds one more dimension to an already great game.
Posted by: Pac_Eddy | June 25, 2009 06:17 PM
Most importantly if you're in a keeper league target Turner early then get Norwood for handcuff. Then, next year you have a starter in Norwood when he flies to a new team.
Posted by: Matt | June 25, 2009 06:48 PM
bottom line norwood is a handcuff with potential to put up at least fairly decent points if turner goes down... just like about every other team in the league. he has draftability in PPR, but beyond a handcuff i dont see him putting up much of an argument. i dont think he has sproles or l.washington value. but if im wrong, and he somehow does, than go ahead and draft/trade for him now. i could never see him caring a full load if turner goes down. i dont think anybody does. at best this year hed be in an RBBC if turner got hurt, but likely an change of pace 2008 k.faulk-like back. his ceiling is that imo.
return yardage is pretty silly fwiw. i dont really like it but i wonldnt be a fan of droping return td's from scoring either. guys like l.washington become top15 rb's in that case. not a fan personally, but if ur league supports it, it prob already has other scoring bonus' etc for the other stat categories to equal everything out.
Posted by: scott c | June 25, 2009 11:26 PM
I understand and fully agree with adding new dimensions to scoring, especially if they add strategy and reward an owners' preparation. But if it's not reasonable and relevant, then it denegrates the integrity of the core elements.
Last season, McClain managed 200 yards from scrimmage and 5 TDs more than Norwood. If your scoring system views Norwood as the more valuable RUNNING BACK, Pac_Eddy, then that (to me) is an injustice to the position. It would seem more reasonable to alter your weekly roster requirements to include a return specialist than to lump a handful of free big yardage opportunities in with the smash mouth efforts.
Posted by: Juggs | June 26, 2009 08:52 AM