Could this finally be Jerious' Year?
Donald Brown, Jerome Harrison, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Bernard Scott, and Shonn Greene have all been discussed here and are among the most popular sleeper "backups" in fantasy football. Jerious Norwood has curiously gotten little airtime, but there's a whole lot to like about his situation:
1. Michael Turner is facing the 370 Curse. As Bill Barnwell explains in the 2009 Rotoworld Draft Guide (available today), backs crossing the 370-carry threshold (or 390 carries including the playoffs) tend to get injured or experience a massive production drop the following season. Turner led the NFL with 377 regular season carries last year and had 18 more in Atlanta's first-round playoff loss. Larry Johnson (2007) and Shaun Alexander (2006) were the latest victims of the Curse of 370. If Turner gets hurt, Norwood will be the Falcons' starter.
2. Norwood is a proven producer. Norwood averages a scintillating 6.6 yards per touch for his career. His career per-carry average is 5.8, and he led the NFL in 2007 with a 6.0 YPC. Despite being a clear-cut backup and averaging only 125 annual touches, Norwood has been a top-43 fantasy back in each of his three seasons. He scored six all-purpose touchdowns and was the non-PPR RB37 overall (a borderline RB3) in 2008 despite getting the rock just 131 times. Norwood can be more than a third-down specialist.
3. Atlanta is all but certain to throw more in Matt Ryan's sophomore season, and Tony Gonzalez's acquisition supports this. Norwood is the club's go-to back on passing downs. He had 36 receptions to Turner's 6 last year. The Falcons throw more = Norwood plays more.
4. Norwood is in a contract year. He'll collect $535K in the last season of his rookie deal. Contract years don't always lead to big seasons, but the extra motivation can't hurt. He'll be campaigning for starter's money in 2010.
5. The Falcons have showed faith in Norwood despite being a holdover from the Jim Mora and Bobby Petrino regimes, at least as an oft-used change of pace back. Turner was signed to be the starter, but GM Tom Dimitroff has since only added late-round kick return prospect Thomas Brown and 30-year-old retread Verron Haynes. Norwood's spot on the depth chart is secure and his usage did not dwindle under the new Mike Smith coaching staff.
6. There are already strong indications that Norwood will play more, specifically from a spring report on ESPN.com. NFC South blogger Pat Yasinkas wrote the following about Norwood on May 12:
I definitely noticed Norwood getting some first-team work as the Falcons rested Michael Turner some. It was only a minicamp, but I think that's a sign of things to come. I had one high-ranking person with the Falcons tell me, "The last thing we want is Michael having to carry 375 times again."
He obviously needs an injury to truly matter, but considering the risk Turner presents this year, Norwood's 15th-round Average Draft Position seems awfully low.
Comments
I love FO, and I certainly don't wish to denigrate the Rotoworld draft guide, but I'm shocked Barnwell would be trotting out the Curse of 370 again in 2009 since it has been thoroughly debunked.
An independent study on the issue on Advanced NFL Stats completely eviscerates the 370 notion - which is also pretty silly just on its face. (Pancake Blocks links to Advanced NFL Stats in the bar on the right.) As important as the statistical disproof, the reasoning in the Advanced NFL Stats column is much more rigorous and persuasive than anything FO has produced on the subject.
Although it is very likely that a RB with as many carries as Michael Turner will get hurt in any given year - and it is fairly certain that he will have a sharp regression to the mean after his career year - the idea that his number of carries a year ago affects his chances this year is certainly fictitious.
Jerious is a great target as a backup RB, but there are numerous factors working against him this year as well. For example, his offensive line was one of the healthiest in the NFL a season ago and the opponents rush defense projects to be much more difficult this year. These are reasons to be skeptical of Michael Turner's ADP as well.
The strongest case for Jerious Norwood rests with his Chris Johnson-like potential should Turner get injured (in fact, the great success of such a similar back is a strong example to the Atlanta coaches; NFL coaches tend to respond better to example than to strong argument).
I'm also a little skeptical of #3 in the post. Most scouting reports on Norwood suggest he's terrible in blitz pickup and that while he is often the target of gimmicky pass plays, he actually sits on true passing downs. If this is true, an injury to Turner wouldn't necessarily launch Norwood's receiving value.
Posted by: The Dude Abides | June 25, 2009 01:47 PM
evan, i knew someone would try to distinguish "touches" from "rushes," but i really don't think there's much difference between LJ running the ball and LJ catching a short pass. With WRs, they are getting tackled mainly by DBs, so I would agree that catches don't have the same impact there. With LJ/Shaun/Turner types, they're still getting tackled by LBs, and some of the worst hits come on passes. Besides, of all the guys I mentioned, the only one who really had many catches was FOrte -- for all the rest, "touches" was little more than "rushes."
Like I said, I like Norwood as a high-ceiling handcuff. But still a handcuff. DOnald Brown is going to be a solid solid member of a committee. Bradshaw is better than Norwood because Jacobs is significantly more likely to get hurt than Jacobs (Jacobs has a personal curse of 220 or something) and Jacobs has the worst RB hands in the league so Bradshaw will dominate 3rd down work. One more evening sitting in a car with his friends, and Marshawn may have serious issues, giving Fred J a better shot at upside than Norwood. And if you are big on the curse/overuse theory, then Jamal Lewis has to be high on your list of guys to avoid, so Harrison has a better shot at relevance than Norwood as well. Again, I actually like Norwood, I'm just saying relative to these other guys, I'd rather have them.
Anyone using "Norwood" in the same sentence as "flex play" (even if the word "inconsistent" is used as well), please join my leagues....
Posted by: veggieb | June 25, 2009 02:53 PM
Norwood is what he is. A back-up scat back and 3rd down back. He will provide a few big plays a year. He is like Leon Washington. Turner is a stud and will be so again. Especially since he doesn't have the wear and tear he should for his age due to little action in SD.
Posted by: Tom | June 25, 2009 03:05 PM
veggie
Jerious Norwood was the #23 RB in a performance league that includes special teams returns. He was right below Lendale White and above LeRon McLain, Jonathan Stewart, Reggie Bush and Ryan Grant.
Unless you're in an 8 man league, I call that a solid flex play.
Posted by: Pac_Eddy | June 25, 2009 04:04 PM
This is good stuff guys. Everyone is making good points. It all comes down to what the coaching staff wants to do. I think he will get more time on the field. Norwood has never carried the ball more than 103 times. I would bet it goes up closer to 140. But Norwood's real value is total yards with 36 catches for 338yrds, 9.4ypr last year. I would like to see both Turner and Norwood in on passing downs at the same time. Thats a lot of fire power on the field at one time. Norwood is a good Flex play.
Posted by: Maddog | June 25, 2009 04:34 PM
You play in a league with special teams YARDAGE? What's next, pass attempts? How about a point for each time a guy runs the correct route?
Call me a purist if you will, but I kind of like the good old days when 4 or 5 grind 'em out between the tackles, hard fought yards counted for something. At least something more than a free catch with a 15 yard head start before reaching any defenders.
(I shouldn't be too surprised, though, considering these days we coddle our kids with trophies for everything if they can just manage to show. Next we'll be rewarding them for not setting themselves on fire. But I digress.)
Posted by: Juggs | June 25, 2009 04:47 PM
The fact that Norwood was ahead of LeRon McLain, Jonathan Stewart, Reggie Bush and Ryan Grant says all you need to know about your scoring system.
Posted by: Juggs | June 25, 2009 04:50 PM