Norwood will never carry it enough to have value in non PPR leagues. Snelling will split time with him and get all goal line carries if Turner goes down (knock on wood)

Snelling saw 23 touches all last season, 9 of them in a blowout shutout of Oakland in Week 9. The coaching staff's shown no urgency to get him the football and he's probably not going to make the team over Thomas Brown.

Meanwhile, Snelling didn't get the football once in the red zone all last year. Norwood did 11 times, averaging 4.64 yards per carry with four touchdowns.

Might Snelling or FB Ovie Mughelli be better options than Norwood on the goal line should Turner go down? Sure, they're bigger. But other than that, we've little reason to believe Snelling has the faith of the coaching staff at all, let alone that he'll make the 53-man roster.

Not that I blame them, but I can only assume this is a classic example of Rotoworld trying to drum up a little noise to get idiots like me to post responses. The "Norwood Sleeper" idea though really needs to be put in perspective. Is he talented? Yeah. So yeah he is better than the average handcuff. But let's review the points above.

(1) THE DREADED CURSE OF 370. I wish I had a dollar for every time this "curse" comes up. Does overusing a RB ultimately lead to his body breaking down? Sure. Does doing this once to a young guy really make that big of a difference? No, not really. It's funny that people keep bringing this up with respect to Turner (see endless posts when Turner was traded by a ROto writer a couple months ago). But what about AP? He had 383 rushes last year, plus 21 carries. Ack! Sell! Sell! What about Forte? He had 379 touches (rushes and receptions combined). Egads! Run away! Run away! What about LJ himself, one of the 2 cited as a Classic Curse. He had a MONSTER year the year AFTER having 369 touches. In fact, LJ's history supports a different, higher curse number. He didn't break down until after he had a whopping 457 touches in that monster year, giving him a total of a ridiculous 826 touches in two years. I'd be much more likely to accept the Curse Hypothesis if a higher number were used -- yes, give a RB 826 touches in two years and sure he's more likely to break down. Same story with Shaun Alexander -- he had his MVP season in 2005 AFTER having 376 touches in 2004. Shaun's touches:
2001: 353 touches, 16 TD's
2002: 354 touches, 18 TD's
2003: 368 touches, 16 TD's
2004: 376 touches, 20 TD's
2005: 385 touches, 28 TD's
then the dropoff happened. So, sure, if you give a guy 1,836 touches in 5 years, he is more likely to break down. But it's frikkin silly that some people are freaking over Turner's 1 year of reasonably heavy use and throwing the "curse" word around. I guess you same idiots will be passing on AP, Forte, etc.

(2) You say "Norwood can be more than a third-down specialist." I'm not saying you're wrong or right, but we've seen zero evidence of that. The fact that he's done well on limited carries does not mean he is necessarily durable. The fact that multiple coaching staffs have had the opportunity to give him more carries and have chosen not to makes me wonder if they know something about his durability and/or ability to run between the tackles than we do.

(3) Atlanta's passing more may very well help Turner. Turner struggled against tougher defenses early on last year because folks didn't respect Ryan yet. And Turner played his share of passing downs in SD. It's not like he can't block. I think having a more balanced offense is a plus for Turner, especially for those who worry about overuse.

(4) We've seen no evidence that Norwood dogs it when it's not his contract year, so I can't do excited about a handcuff being in a contract year. Perhaps the coaches will give him less chances so that he can't get that big contract somewhere else, who knows.

(5) and (6) Every year we hear the same thing about Norwood. Sure, there's no doubt that the Falcons will try to avoid having Turner rush 375 times again. But that's because they want more run-pass balance.

Bottom line, yes Norwood has a higher ceiling than most traditional "handcuffs". But he's still just a handcuff. I'd take most of the guys you mention (Donald Brown, Bradshaw, Jackson, Harrison) before him.

Veggieb --

Correction: Michael Turner actually was not traded by a Rotoworld writer in a dynasty league. He was acquired by a Rotoworld writer. Me.

The ideas here were to:

1) highlight Turner's 2008 overuse and point out some risk factor (even if I'm selfishly hoping Turner stays healthy)

2) keep in mind the likely change from a serious run-heavy offense to a more balanced attack, and how it could help Atlanta's receiving back, and

3) point out Norwood's low Average Draft Position and how he could be a good value on draft day.

Could the Falcons throwing more (and presumably having a better, less predictable offense because of it) help Turner? Undoubtedly. But considering all the factors above, it sure does seem like the 15th round is late for such a high-upside running back with already proven RB3/4 value.

veggieb makes some very good points; I do not think Michael Turner will be afflicted with The Curse of 370. His TD numbers will drop but probably still land in the area of 14-16, which is solid. He'll still get a lot of carries.

I do agree with Evan though that Norwood has more value than a lot of the backups he listed though. In leagues that offer a flex position and KR points, Norwood is a great pick. If I had Turner and Norwood, I would be happy to start both with Norwood at flex.

I don't think Norwood will ever be a #1 fantasy or NFL back, but he's a great backup/flex player, very similar to Darren Sproles. He's worth sniping if you don't have Turner and is worth a middle round pick as a top backup.

love jerious norwood, have since he was a rookie. The Falcons would benefit if he touched the ball more because he is a playmaker. The problem with him is that he dances too much and doesn't really run in between the tackles that well. And the Falcons always seem to say they want to get him more involved, but never really do.

This year could be different though, because the Falcons need to be very concerned about the overusage of Michael Turner.

Norwood is an inconsistent FLEX play right now, but he is a guy I would definitely roster because of his upside. If he really does get more involved in the offense, he could be valuable, especially in PPR leagues.

Also, the "Curse of 370," which like you Veggieb I believe there is reason to be skeptical of in some instances, does not apply to "touches." It only applies to carries, which require grinding between the tackles and lead to more hits by multiple defenders than a reception on a swing or a screen.