Arrow is Pointing Up for Ochocinco
I always have a real hard time betting on rebounds from players coming off lost or terrible seasons. Chad "Ochocinco" Johnson's 53-catch, 540-yard, four-touchdown 2008 campaign was very troubling, even if it can partially be blamed on Ryan Fitzpatrick's noodle arm.
Entering last year, Chad had not produced fewer than 87 catches, 1,274 yards, or seven touchdowns in a season since 2002. A model of year-to-year consistency, "85" never finished lower than the fantasy WR9 overall between 2003-2007. He fell to the WR50 in 2008.
Late June ankle surgery and a shoulder injury may have contributed, but Ochocinco's admission that he didn't "lift one weight" or "run one route" during the offseason certainly takes the cake. He wasn't prepared to play.
Ochocinco has taken his spring workouts seriously this year, however, and showed up to Organized Team Activities (OTAs) a week earlier than anyone expected. It's still later than most players, but big news for Chad. Before Tuesday, he had not participated in a voluntary offseason practice since 2007.
It's still hard to be fully confident in Chad rebounding to his pre-2008 production levels, but combine these factors with Carson Palmer's return -- the No. 1 plus for any Bengals skill player -- and the arrow is pointing up for Ochocinco again.
Wide receivers are being drafted earlier than ever this year, but according to early ADP (Average Draft Position) results, Chad Ochocinco is going 56th. That's the WR23, behind wideouts with much weaker resumes like Anthony Gonzalez, Santonio Holmes, Roy E. Williams, and DeSean Jackson.
I definitely wouldn't recommend reaching for Chad, but he's a steal in the sixth round of a 10-team league draft.
Comments
I agree that Ocho will be a nice value this year, and on the same token, it looks like Palmer might be as well, since they'll both need each other.
If the Bengal's OL is that much improved, these guys are quality mid-round draft targets that have been proven performers in the past. All the ingredients you need for a cheap, league winning fantasy pick!!
Posted by: JMS | June 9, 2009 10:05 PM
Gonna draft Ochocinco in the 5th or 6th round.
Posted by: Misfit | June 9, 2009 11:30 PM
All Bengals skill players are going to be a steal this year. Although there is a chance none of them will be exceptional, you also won't be spending much for any of them. Clearly there are many question marks, but that's what the mid/late rounds are about, drafting someone with question marks, but a high ceiling.
Palmer and Johnson are going to produce reasonable numbers no matter how you cut it. I'm not convinced Coles is really much of a downgrade from Housh. Although he might not be as tough, he's never had a decent quarterback, or depth of a receiving core around him that he will in Cincy. I'd also be happy to toss in a late round pick on Henry. The guy may be a knucklehead, but he could come out as the steal of the 2009 fantasy season.
As has been mentioned in an earlier post, Benson might not be the most attractive of options, but he is one of the few backs in the league without pressure of losing his job. Throw in an impovement on an already decent defense, and getting a real QB under center and he is an absolute steal in the 6th/7th round. He's not flashy, but I think he's a solid bet for 10/12 fantasy points a game. Not a terrible flex play.
Tempered expectations and great value are written all over the '09 Bengals.
Posted by: Davie Ricky | June 10, 2009 09:19 AM
My problem is Evan calls him a model of consistency since 2002. And if you look at his stats its true.
Actually hes a fantasy killer because he demanded a high draft pick when he would score 2-3 tds in one game and be lost for the next two weeks completely screwing his fantasy owner.
Another Steve Smith if you ask me .
Posted by: Abruzzi | June 11, 2009 12:21 PM
Draft Ocho with tempered expectations. Don't rely on him as your starter but as a 4th/5th WR, should work out well for you.
Posted by: joe | June 11, 2009 01:50 PM
I'm with Abruzzi. I've never understood the love in with this guy - sure he has a monster game or two but the disappearing act he pulls in other games is death for a fantasy owner.I'd gladly give up a couple of 10 catch, two TD games for someone that could realistically come closer to a TD a week with six or seven catches. For that reason, I'll always take a good slot guy (Wes Welker anyone) over a headline guy like Ocho.
Posted by: Tfram | June 12, 2009 12:56 PM
85 STILL showed up this year later than most players. That's NOT "humble".
If he's available in the middle rounds of my draft, I may take a chance on him as WR #3, maybe even WR #2 if pickings are slim, but he's a real crap-shoot of a pick.
Posted by: Anonymous | June 13, 2009 03:21 PM