Arrow is Pointing Up for Ochocinco
I always have a real hard time betting on rebounds from players coming off lost or terrible seasons. Chad "Ochocinco" Johnson's 53-catch, 540-yard, four-touchdown 2008 campaign was very troubling, even if it can partially be blamed on Ryan Fitzpatrick's noodle arm.
Entering last year, Chad had not produced fewer than 87 catches, 1,274 yards, or seven touchdowns in a season since 2002. A model of year-to-year consistency, "85" never finished lower than the fantasy WR9 overall between 2003-2007. He fell to the WR50 in 2008.
Late June ankle surgery and a shoulder injury may have contributed, but Ochocinco's admission that he didn't "lift one weight" or "run one route" during the offseason certainly takes the cake. He wasn't prepared to play.
Ochocinco has taken his spring workouts seriously this year, however, and showed up to Organized Team Activities (OTAs) a week earlier than anyone expected. It's still later than most players, but big news for Chad. Before Tuesday, he had not participated in a voluntary offseason practice since 2007.
It's still hard to be fully confident in Chad rebounding to his pre-2008 production levels, but combine these factors with Carson Palmer's return -- the No. 1 plus for any Bengals skill player -- and the arrow is pointing up for Ochocinco again.
Wide receivers are being drafted earlier than ever this year, but according to early ADP (Average Draft Position) results, Chad Ochocinco is going 56th. That's the WR23, behind wideouts with much weaker resumes like Anthony Gonzalez, Santonio Holmes, Roy E. Williams, and DeSean Jackson.
I definitely wouldn't recommend reaching for Chad, but he's a steal in the sixth round of a 10-team league draft.
Comments
he's definitely a good buy-low candidate -- classic example of people putting too much emphasis on last year's stats. he certainly has a high ceiling as he proved again and again.
but my real question about Cincy, and thus Ocho, is the OL. will they be better than last year Evan (or anyone)? if so, then i like their chances of returning to fantasy relevance. if the OL is going to play like last year though, then i'd be concerned.
Posted by: veggieb | June 9, 2009 5:21 PM
The biggest plus for the passing game in terms of the offensive line is getting Andrew Whitworth in there to play left tackle. It doesn't get much worse than Levi Jones' 2008 performance. RT Stacy Andrews (9.5 sacks allowed) was also a problem. Both Jones and Andrews are gone.
(In addition to the sacks allowed number, another indication of Andrews' poor pass protection is the Eagles moving him inside to guard, where he'll be protected.)
Andre Smith should be an upgrade at right tackle. Eric Ghiaciuc was a liability at center and will likely be replaced by either Kyle Cook or rookie Jonathan Luigs.
Bobbie Williams is secure and steady at one guard spot. Nate Livings could be a liability at the other.
Still, the guard positions are more concerning for the running game. The passing game is more heavily influenced by the tackle positions, and I like what I see on paper from the Bengals' OTs a lot better than last year's.
Posted by: evan | June 9, 2009 5:33 PM
my main concern here is....how "back" is Palmer? is he truly healthy? that injury last year seemed very troubling for his future performance. does anyone know?
Posted by: morgatron | June 9, 2009 5:54 PM
Drafting Smith and Luigs and moving Whitworth to LT are positive steps for a line which completely fell apart last year.
Serious red flags still exist however:
1) The center position is still a major question mark.
2) The potential of two rookie starters on the line is a little scary.
3) Cohesion - the most important aspect of an offensive line is how well they communicate and play as a unit. A likely issue this year with all of the moving parts.
While improvement is to be expected, it is likely to be a slow incremental process.
Looking like another long year for the Bengals...
Posted by: Stephen | June 9, 2009 5:57 PM
The OL looks great for 2010, definitely a gamble for 2009. Very reminiscent of the GB situation a few years ago.
Posted by: Rob | June 9, 2009 6:04 PM
A healthy Carson tossing to a motivated(?) Chad will go a long way towards stretching Ds, creating scoring opportunities, and forming the sense of general "improvement" of the O-line this year.
Posted by: Juggs | June 9, 2009 7:15 PM
I am pumped for this year as a bengals fan. While I know hoping for the playoffs is extreme, this year will definitley better. Carson has not been the same since his knee injury, although caution and constantly being sacked could make him wary. The good news is the line; even though the line got shuffled and much younger, the potential is great.
I know chad had a horrid year last year, but personally I believe that can be contributed to fitzpatrick behind an awful line in addition to chad's lack of preparation.
Returning keith rivers and the other injured (joseph), and adding ray maualuga, michael Johnson, tank Johnson, and roy williams will push the 12th best d into the top ten. If chad is truly going to play like the chad of a few years ago and laveranues coles fits well, the offense could have a great year as well as the defense.
Posted by: Jeff | June 9, 2009 9:21 PM