ADP: The criminally under-drafted
Thumbing through the handy Fantasy Football Calculator ADP tool, one can't help but notice players jumping out as over-drafted and under-drafted. Below are eight players that are being criminally under-drafted in late June.
1. Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals - Coming off a successful close-out to last season and virtually guaranteed to receive one of the heaviest workloads in the NFL, Benson is being drafted as just the 30th back off the board. K.C. Joyner, from the NY Times' Fifth-Down Blog, explains Benson's "upside potential."
2. Chris Wells, RB, Cardinals - Maybe it's the handiwork of this mid-June guess that Tim Hightower would open the season as the starter, but Wells is being drafted just two rounds ahead of Hightower and almost a full two rounds behind fellow rookie Knowshon Moreno. Don't believe the Hightower talk. Wells is far more talented and figures to get plenty of carries in an explosive offense.
3. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts - A full round behind Brees and Brady? Manning won't miss a game, and he's finished as a Top-6 fantasy QB in each of the last 10 years! Lead pipes have nothing on this lock.
4. Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos - Beat writer Lindsay Jones issued a fantasy alert(!) on Royal, who caught 91 passes as a rookie and figures to top that figure in the Wes Welker offensive role with Brandon Marshall an even bigger question mark than last year. He should be drafted higher than WR24.
5. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets - Drafters are obviously scared off by the Sanchez/Clemens factor, but keep in mind that Laveranues Coles is gone. Cotchery, who is being drafted behind WR3 reaches like Kevin Walter and Steve Breaston, is guaranteed to be a target monster in 2009.
6. Trent Edwards, QB, Bills - Taking his history into account, the QB17 spot seems about right. Drafters, however, always underestimate the impact of a difference-making receiver landing in a new offense. In T.O. and Lee Evans, Edwards has two of the 15 most talented WRs in the league.
7. Stephen Jackson, RB, Rams - The biggest mistake drafters make an annual basis? Putting far too much stock in last year's numbers. Considering S-Jax's talent, offensive role and expected workload, he should be a legit option to go in the Top-3. Meanwhile, Matt Forte is less talented, has a now-healthy Kevin Jones as a backup and won't enjoy as many dumpoffs with Jay Cutler at QB.
8. Justin Gage, WR, Titans - Flying well under the fantasy radar, Gage is the best of the unsexy receiver options. He closed out last season with a 10-reception, 135-yard effort against the Ravens in the playoffs and has been tearing up OTAs. In the second year of Mike Heimerdinger's offense, he's better than WR46.
Comments
btw.. i think its wasteful beating the drum for known commodities like sjax that are gonna be drafted in the first round regardless. ppl usually take the players they like in the first rd anyway.. so its pointless to debate about them. no one reads this site for that information. they read this site for the next breakout star not being talked about on the rest of these ff sites. these posts seem like wasted energy. i think we would all like insight on who will be the next top 5 wr this year like roddy white. with all these posts so common... i dont remember seeing anything promoting him anytime last year.
Posted by: scott c | June 29, 2009 05:24 PM
I know the guy has a lot to prove after a dissapointing start to last season, and then getting injured.... but fron the link to ADP's Carson Palmer being taken 2 places after Torry Holt, and 5 above Pittsburgh's Defense is proof the world has gone completely crazy.
Posted by: Davie Ricky | June 30, 2009 01:45 PM
Davie Ricky- You really don't think that Gore has the same kind of talent that SJax has do you? Gore is a good back, but doesn't have the size or speed of SJax.
Posted by: MNRunLeft | June 30, 2009 02:31 PM
MNRunLeft - SJax is a better athlete, but I would be willing to bet his production is going to be very similar to Gore's. He hasn't posted elite numbers for the past two seasons, and the team really hasn't made any moves to improve the players around him... Put him on the Giants, Eagles, etc, and would be singing a differnt tune, but I don't see how his numbers are going to improve drastically from the prior two seasons when no major changes have been made to the team other than losing an oft injured future hall of fame tackle, and an aging future hall of fame receiver. I just don't buy into it.
Posted by: Davie Ricky | June 30, 2009 05:22 PM
i agree. i think gore's situation is much better at this point. better offense, team, oline, defense, etc.
Posted by: scott c | June 30, 2009 05:57 PM
First knock goes to everyone that doesn't know how to spell. It is "Steven Jackson" not Stephen Jackson.. haha.. and i must agree.. there are not very many full workload backs left. S Jax is one of them and drafting around injury is not very smart. If he falls to you late 1st round take him and enjoy!
Posted by: Dan | July 7, 2009 02:15 PM
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Posted by: Hfcbding | July 14, 2009 12:43 PM