ADP: The criminally under-drafted
Thumbing through the handy Fantasy Football Calculator ADP tool, one can't help but notice players jumping out as over-drafted and under-drafted. Below are eight players that are being criminally under-drafted in late June.
1. Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals - Coming off a successful close-out to last season and virtually guaranteed to receive one of the heaviest workloads in the NFL, Benson is being drafted as just the 30th back off the board. K.C. Joyner, from the NY Times' Fifth-Down Blog, explains Benson's "upside potential."
2. Chris Wells, RB, Cardinals - Maybe it's the handiwork of this mid-June guess that Tim Hightower would open the season as the starter, but Wells is being drafted just two rounds ahead of Hightower and almost a full two rounds behind fellow rookie Knowshon Moreno. Don't believe the Hightower talk. Wells is far more talented and figures to get plenty of carries in an explosive offense.
3. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts - A full round behind Brees and Brady? Manning won't miss a game, and he's finished as a Top-6 fantasy QB in each of the last 10 years! Lead pipes have nothing on this lock.
4. Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos - Beat writer Lindsay Jones issued a fantasy alert(!) on Royal, who caught 91 passes as a rookie and figures to top that figure in the Wes Welker offensive role with Brandon Marshall an even bigger question mark than last year. He should be drafted higher than WR24.
5. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets - Drafters are obviously scared off by the Sanchez/Clemens factor, but keep in mind that Laveranues Coles is gone. Cotchery, who is being drafted behind WR3 reaches like Kevin Walter and Steve Breaston, is guaranteed to be a target monster in 2009.
6. Trent Edwards, QB, Bills - Taking his history into account, the QB17 spot seems about right. Drafters, however, always underestimate the impact of a difference-making receiver landing in a new offense. In T.O. and Lee Evans, Edwards has two of the 15 most talented WRs in the league.
7. Stephen Jackson, RB, Rams - The biggest mistake drafters make an annual basis? Putting far too much stock in last year's numbers. Considering S-Jax's talent, offensive role and expected workload, he should be a legit option to go in the Top-3. Meanwhile, Matt Forte is less talented, has a now-healthy Kevin Jones as a backup and won't enjoy as many dumpoffs with Jay Cutler at QB.
8. Justin Gage, WR, Titans - Flying well under the fantasy radar, Gage is the best of the unsexy receiver options. He closed out last season with a 10-reception, 135-yard effort against the Ravens in the playoffs and has been tearing up OTAs. In the second year of Mike Heimerdinger's offense, he's better than WR46.
Comments
People are also forgetting that S-Jax missed pretty much all offseason last year.. that definitely contributed to his "down" season, and most likely to some of his nagging injuries as well. Personally, I think S-Jax has the talent and situation to be the #1 fantasy player this season. Of course I wouldn't take him over Peterson, but he has a chance to be better, considering he actually gets more than 7 catches a year.
Posted by: whitey | June 28, 2009 01:27 PM
i would love to know some of the records of the teams who drafted sjax last year in the top 3, considering theres a strong possibility he could repeat another down season. please let me know how your season turned out. with a pick that high, its hard to make up for the lost production, especially since sjax has no clear-cut handcuff; a point that wess makes absolutely no sense with, in that having healthy k.jones is a bad thing when cleary u can get him off waivers if forte went down, not missing much production as jones would take over as an everydown back.
yes injuries happen to everybody, especially rb's. but i dont see how sjaxs position makes him any more desirable than the rest of the league, yet he continues to get overvalued. your basically expecting the top 3 player in somebody that hasnt braked top 15 producition for even his position ranks over the last two years. theres just too many quality players to invest in with beter track records and (gasp!) talent than sjax. unless hes going in the second rd (will never happen) the value will never warrent the slot.
Posted by: scott c | June 29, 2009 03:11 PM
*that hasnt broken
Posted by: scott c | June 29, 2009 03:15 PM
Scott,
Last year's stats won't help or hurt you this year. That's just the way this game works.
Posted by: Wess | June 29, 2009 03:29 PM
scott, Wess is just messing with you. he knew it was a guaranteed 10 extra posts if he said Steve Jax could be top 3 rather than top 5.
how about the criminally overdrafted --
(1) TO -- enjoy trent edwards and the weather in buffalo in november/december.
(2) mcfadden -- love him long term, but in a redraft, take him ahead of addai? if i gotta have a committee, give me an indy committee over an oakland one anyday.
(3) tony gonzalez taken about the same time as gates? gonzo looked like he was done until KC went spread O and shotgun all the time. atlanta will be balanced at most, more likely tilt to run-oriented. sell high.
(4) antonio bryant -- do i really need to explain this?
(5) torry holt -- he's done. remove the fork that was already stuck in him.
(6) sproles -- yes we all know how fast he is, but this is not a committee
(7) breaston -- overdrafted by those who forget how key boldin's injury was to his production
Posted by: veggieb | June 29, 2009 04:10 PM
I honestly don't know why people view SJAX as a top 3 pick, while Frank Gore drops to the late 1st / early 2nd. They are essentially in identical situations. Both had ridiculous '06 seasons (although SJax's was better), and both have produced amazingly similar numbers over the past 2 years. They are both unquestioned starters, on run first teams with questionable quarterbacks and receiving corp's.
They both have freakish physical ability, the only real difference I see is that SF's passing game has more upside than St Louis does.
They are both risk/reward picks, but I'll let someone else grab SJax top 3 when someone with the exact same potential is going almost a full round behind him.
Posted by: Davie Ricky | June 29, 2009 04:37 PM
thanks veggieb, i suspected as much.
and wess, i know last years stats dont help this year, but saying their unimportant is just ridiculous.
Posted by: scott c | June 29, 2009 05:18 PM