ADP: The criminally under-drafted
Thumbing through the handy Fantasy Football Calculator ADP tool, one can't help but notice players jumping out as over-drafted and under-drafted. Below are eight players that are being criminally under-drafted in late June.
1. Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals - Coming off a successful close-out to last season and virtually guaranteed to receive one of the heaviest workloads in the NFL, Benson is being drafted as just the 30th back off the board. K.C. Joyner, from the NY Times' Fifth-Down Blog, explains Benson's "upside potential."
2. Chris Wells, RB, Cardinals - Maybe it's the handiwork of this mid-June guess that Tim Hightower would open the season as the starter, but Wells is being drafted just two rounds ahead of Hightower and almost a full two rounds behind fellow rookie Knowshon Moreno. Don't believe the Hightower talk. Wells is far more talented and figures to get plenty of carries in an explosive offense.
3. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts - A full round behind Brees and Brady? Manning won't miss a game, and he's finished as a Top-6 fantasy QB in each of the last 10 years! Lead pipes have nothing on this lock.
4. Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos - Beat writer Lindsay Jones issued a fantasy alert(!) on Royal, who caught 91 passes as a rookie and figures to top that figure in the Wes Welker offensive role with Brandon Marshall an even bigger question mark than last year. He should be drafted higher than WR24.
5. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets - Drafters are obviously scared off by the Sanchez/Clemens factor, but keep in mind that Laveranues Coles is gone. Cotchery, who is being drafted behind WR3 reaches like Kevin Walter and Steve Breaston, is guaranteed to be a target monster in 2009.
6. Trent Edwards, QB, Bills - Taking his history into account, the QB17 spot seems about right. Drafters, however, always underestimate the impact of a difference-making receiver landing in a new offense. In T.O. and Lee Evans, Edwards has two of the 15 most talented WRs in the league.
7. Stephen Jackson, RB, Rams - The biggest mistake drafters make an annual basis? Putting far too much stock in last year's numbers. Considering S-Jax's talent, offensive role and expected workload, he should be a legit option to go in the Top-3. Meanwhile, Matt Forte is less talented, has a now-healthy Kevin Jones as a backup and won't enjoy as many dumpoffs with Jay Cutler at QB.
8. Justin Gage, WR, Titans - Flying well under the fantasy radar, Gage is the best of the unsexy receiver options. He closed out last season with a 10-reception, 135-yard effort against the Ravens in the playoffs and has been tearing up OTAs. In the second year of Mike Heimerdinger's offense, he's better than WR46.
Comments
no one will ever over-draft benson high now at this point in his career, and S-Jax is an over-ranked, oft-injured hype train (very unlikly of a "Rotoworld favorite"). everything else on this list i agree with.
Posted by: scott c | June 26, 2009 05:28 PM
finally, some astute reasoning re. matt forte. jackson is easily superior.
Posted by: captain obvious | June 26, 2009 08:13 PM
while i agree with the list - the Forte - Jackson comparison is comical. Not that Jackson is not good- he def is a top 5-6 RB. But it seems to rip on Forte - Cutler? Cutler will provide far less "8 in the box" schemes. Plus Big Orlando Pace blocks for Forte now not Jackson. The Bears figure to be in the red zone more often than the Rams thus giving Forte far more scoring chances. To 'imply' Jackson should be ranked ahead of Forte borders on LUNACY.
Posted by: scott l | June 27, 2009 11:47 PM
Jackson *should* be ranked of Forte. He's easily more talented and even in a down season where nothing went right on the Rams offense, S-Jax averaged more points per game than Forte did last season.
If you want to postulate that S-Jax's quad injury from last season has some bearing on what he will do this season, that's your prerogative. I just don't think it's germane. Running backs get hurt. It's part of the game. S-Jax is healthy now, and I don't believe he's any more of an injury risk going forward than Forte is.
Not only does S-Jax have the edge in talent and production, he also doesn't have a now fully healthy Kevin Jones around as a potential threat for 7-10 touches per week.
Posted by: Wess | June 28, 2009 09:53 AM
Lol.. the sjax diehards will never die. this debate never end as ppl will always believe he can overperform his draft slot. that will never happen, as hes clearly shown over the last two years, but atleast u gotta give ppl credit for believing.. not saying hes better than forte is really taking this to a new level. a redicilously silly level, but a new level none the less.
Posted by: scott c | June 28, 2009 01:24 PM
Lol.. the sjax diehards will never die. this debate never end as ppl will always believe he can overperform his draft slot. that will never happen, as hes clearly shown over the last two years, but atleast u gotta give ppl credit for believing.. now saying hes better than forte is really taking this to a new level. a redicilously silly level, but a new level none the less.
Posted by: scott c | June 28, 2009 01:25 PM
*now saying hes better than forte
Posted by: scott c | June 28, 2009 01:26 PM